THE PALLILOG
Charlie Pallilo: Astros should benefit from soft schedule
Jun 8, 2018, 6:49 am
Dallas Keuchel has not been good. Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
The Astros underwhelmed as they ran their four series gauntlet against their probable four fellow American League playoff teams, but it’s not as if their 6-7 record was horrible. The Indians, Yankees, Red Sox, and Mariners draw good paychecks too. Now the clouds have parted and the Astros should win a truckload of games between now and the All-Star break. As the Astros started their four game series in Arlington vs. the Rangers they had 36 games left before the break, exactly zero of them against anybody with a winning record.
To the Mariners’ credit they took advantage of a soft schedule stretch and ripped off 16 wins in 22 games and vaulted over the Astros to lead the American League West. But the schedule worm has turned. While the Astros play nobody good for the next month-plus, the Mariners have nine games against the Angels, seven against the Red Sox, and three against the Yankees. Add in six interleague games against the Rockies and that’s 25 out of 32 games upcoming for the Mariners vs. teams now over .500. They won’t necessarily sink like a stone, but they almost certainly won’t be winning two out of every three.
So it will be a definite disappointment and a big surprise if the Astros aren’t leading the division at the break.
The Astros still have not won a game all season in which they’ve trailed by more than two runs. They still are 0 for 2018 when trailing after eight innings. Nobody wins many games when trailing after eight but the Astros have blown three games when up going to the ninth.
Bearded blunder
It’s not quite a Keuchel Konundrum (especially since the word is conundrum) but Dallas needs to pick it up a bit or his spot in the starting rotation could wind up jeopardized. Collin McHugh is an obvious alternative. In the 80s Rod Stewart had a hit with Some Guys Have All The Luck. Rod meant good luck. Keuchel is the first eight game loser in the Majors this season, but while his performance has been mediocre overall he’s had bad luck too. Over his last eight starts Keuchel for his mound opponent twice drew Yankee ace Luis Severino, twice drew Indian ace and reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Cory Kluber, once drew Oakland’s best and fresh off a no-hitter Sean Manaea, and most recently drew Mariner ace James Paxton. Keuchel’s ERA over those eight starts is 4.70 so he flat out hasn’t been good enough consistently enough. But check out the Astro run totals in Dallas’s defeats this season: 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 4, 3, 1. No pitcher can produce a good record with that level of support. Keuchel took a no-decision at Cleveland after throwing six innings of two-run ball. The Astros scored nothing while Keuchel was in the game, then eleven runs off of the Indians’ bullpen in the final two innings.
Hold those Tigers
The 2014 Detroit Tigers had Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and Rick Porcello 1-2-3 in their starting rotation. They got swept in the Division Series. The Tigers then traded Porcello, saw Scherzer walk as a free agent, and then a couple of years later traded Verlander. Porcello won a Cy Young Award in 2016, Scherzer won Cy Young Awards in both 2016 and 2017. Scherzer and Verlander may both win Cy Young Awards in 2018. The Tigers winningest pitcher this season is Mike Fiers.
Pat hand
A positive of the Texans’ offseason surfaced Thursday with word that Patriots’ wide receiver Julian Edelman faces a four game PED suspension (he’s appealing). We’re three months out from the Texans-Patriots season opener in Foxborough. Edelman missed all last season after a preseason ACL tear. Tom Brady and the Pats held up OK. Shockingly, Rob Gronkowski didn’t retire and leave more than eight and a half million dollars on the table, so the Patriots figure to continue holding up OK.
Hall of shame
So Terrell Owens finally gets elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and announces he won’t be showing up for the induction ceremony this summer in Canton Ohio. Should make for a classier ceremony.
No decision?
As the Warriors polish off the Cavaliers, Rocket fantasists will ratchet up the “LeBron to Houston!” talk. I’m a pretty big never say never guy but the only Hall of Famer-to be James on the Rockets next season will be Harden.
Buzzer beaters
1. Justify should take the Belmont Stakes to win the Triple Crown Saturday. What a stud. 2. It’s better that in their 44th season of trying the Washington Capitals finally won the Stanley Cup than if the expansion Vegas Golden Knights had won it. The Knights’ first season is still one of the most amazing team stories ever. 3. Greatest Triple Crown winners: Bronze-Mickey Mantle Silver-Ted Williams Gold-Secretariat.
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.