Can James Harden and Chris Paul lead the Rockets past Golden State? Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
The NFL celebrations have officially dissolved and the NBA All-Star weekend is now in the rearview. With teams having from 21-27 games left on their schedules, the race for seeding is getting tight. This year's Western Conference is currently overseen by two dynamic outfits. The Rockets are on a historic pace and have shown they can compete in the era of "super teams," while the defending champions are dominating as expected.
Flashback to last seasons All-Star break and Golden State sat at 47-9. Coming off the historic 73-9 campaign, the league-leading record had the feeling of being less than stellar according to the team's expectations. This year, the Warriors own a 45-14 record, their worse pace in three years. Even worse for the defending champions, they don't even hold the No. 1 seed in the West at the moment. Leading the way this year are the Houston Rockets at 44-13 ( played two games less than G.S.). The Western Conference seems to be a two horse race with the gap between the second and third seeds being 10 games. According to the playoffsatus.com, the Warriors and Rockets are 51% and 49% to win the top 2 seeds. The Timberwolves and Spurs are the next seeds, and both have less than 1% chance of catching the two front runners. After the No. 3 and 4, the drop off is also substantial on projected seeds, with Minnesota and San Antonio both having a greater than 30% chance of securing the 3 and 4 seeds while the next contenders have an 8% to end in the top 4.
Let's look at the similarities in the 2 leaders
2016-2017- Warriors
Offensive rating: 114.2 (1st)
Defensive rating: 101.6 (2nd)
2017-2018- Warriors
Offensive rating: 115.8 (1st)
Defensive rating: 107.7 (22nd)
2017-2018 Rockets
Offensive rating: 114.1 (2nd)
Defensive rating: 105.4 (12th)
As you can see, Golden State has increased their offensive scoring, but they have dropped off drastically on the defensive end.
The Warriors have the second best record straight up but ATS they have not been profitable, going 25-32-2 (26th).
Their nemesis Houston wins 77.2% of their games straight up and are dead even at 28-28-1 ATS (17th).
Getting home court advantage in the playoffs is paramount for the Rockets, where they have been majestic going 23-6. The only problem is the books have caught up to the success they are having and have made them an expensive buy, day in day out. For gamblers, Houston is 11-17-1 ATS only covering 39.3% of the games played at the Toyota Center. If these two juggernauts indeed face off in the playoffs, how many home games would Houston even be favored in? The last time they played in Houston, the Warriors opened as 3.5 point road favorites. Houston also holds the tie breaker and these teams have no games scheduled the rest of the regular season.
Here are some futures odds for the Western Conference:
To Win the West:
Golden State Warriors 5/12
Houston Rockets 11/4
Oklahoma City Thunder 16/1
San Antonio Spurs 16/1
Minnesota Timberwolves 25/1
Utah Jazz 40/1
Denver Nuggets 80/1
New Orleans Pelicans 125/1
Portland Trail Blazers 125/1
Los Angeles Clippers 150/1
Los Angeles Lakers 250/1
Memphis Grizzlies 1000/1
Dallas Mavericks 2500/1
Phoenix Suns 2500/1
Sacramento Kings 2500/1
At first glance, you might be enticed to jump on the Rockets to win the West at those odds. But an interesting fact to keep in mind is that the Warriors have the easiest strength of schedule in the entire West to close out the season. The Rockets, on the other hand, play the fifth toughest schedule in the conference down the stretch. If getting home court is a priority, Houston will have to keep the pace they are playing at and close out strong. Their final four games will all be against potential playoff teams, playing at Spurs, then finishing on a three-game homestand vs. the Wizards, Blazers and Thunder.
Golden State will have it fairly easier in the closing games of the season, where in their final six contests they get Phoenix twice, the Kings, Thunder, Pacers, and the Pelicans.
The race for the top seed will go come down to the final weeks, and the final stretch of games will be the deciding factor. If Houston wants to host the Western Conference finals, they need to continue the success this season.
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.