THE Z REPORT

Lance Zierlein: Texans Primer - Secondary moving up and Watson's "tight window throws"

Lance Zierlein: Texans Primer - Secondary moving up and Watson's "tight window throws"
Jonathan Joseph and newcomer Justin Reid could help the secondary. Photo by Edward Clarke

The Rockets put together their best win total in team history and had an MVP winner for the first time since 1994. They followed that up with a non-busy free agency period that saw them lose two key wing defenders, re-up with Chris Paul for a four year, max dollar deal, and pursue Carmelo Anthony - yet again.

The Astros and the entire city are still on cloud nine with the organization bringing the city its baseball title and the fellas are in the mix once again. The Rockets and the Astros are having success and occupying the attention of the the city.

But guess what, guys? The Texans are back! The Texans are back! Wait, what? You aren’t as excited as you used to be about this team after watching the team tank in games where Deshaun Watson couldn’t play? You don’t feel the same connection to the defense since J.J. Watt’s consecutive seasons on the sideline due to injury? The departure of Rick Smith has you feeling down? OK, I know that last one isn’t true. Camp is getting started so it’s time for me to serve you some football coffee and wake you up for the Texans season.

Hopkins is the real MVP?

How important is DeAndre Hopkins to the success of Deshaun Watson’s success? Maybe more important than you realize. I’m doing some consulting work with Zebra Technology, who handles player tracking on the NFL level. One of the things they can track is “Tight Window Throws” which is defined as a pass attempt with a defender within 1.5 yards of the target.

A total of 34.1% of Watson’s pass attempts were into tight windows, which was a little on the high side. For comparison’s sake, Carson Wentz was at 35.5%, Russell Wilson at 29.4%, Ben Roethlisberger at 26.8%, and Drew Brees at 22.5%. What you start to find is that younger quarterbacks tend to throw into tight windows more often so it is important that they have quality receivers who can make catches in traffic.

Watson actually completed 39.4% of his “tight window throws” which was higher than Roethlisberger 37.1% and Wilson 38.7%. This is where “D-Hop” comes in. Hopkins has good size, long arms, catches the ball away from his body and may have the strongest hands of any receiver in the league. When it comes to ball skills and winning 50/50 throws, he’s the best in the league. Period. Without Hopkins, many of those throws become incompletions.

This isn’t to say that Watson wasn’t spectacular last year, because he was, but Hopkins ability to win in the tight windows meant Watson didn’t have to go through as many of the growing pains as most young quarterbacks go through.

Optimism Bubble - The secondary will be fine

I see holes with this team and I have concerns, but we aren’t going to focus on those ugly comments since this is the beginning of camp. Right now is a time for optimism which is why I’m opening up this Optimism Bubble. You can step inside this bubble (it’s actually just a few paragraphs) and experience safe and happy Texans talk. Today’s topic is the secondary

Sure, the Texans were an atrocity on the back-end last season and many of those same player are back, but third-round safety Justin Reid is much more talented than where he was drafted and has the talent to help the defense as a rookie. Tyrann Mathieu may very well be better off as a ball-hawking safety than a slot corner and that should benefit the Texans. Free agent cornerback Aaron Colvin is an obvious upgrade into the talent pool at the cornerback spot.

I’m not going to try and over-sell you on Jonathan Joseph or Kareem Jackson because I think both vets best days are behind them, but I do believe that their jobs (Kareem’s job is still up in the air in my opinion) will get easier with a healthy pass rush intact for 2018. And Kevin Johnson? He’s not bad, he’s not good, he’s just been blah. However, it wouldn’t be out of the normal career arc for Johnson to have his best season to date.

The secondary is clearly in need of some fresh blood at cornerback, but the addition of Colvin and potential improvement from Kevin Johnson should help that. If the pass rush does their job and Mathieu does what he does best as a ballhawk, there is no reason to believe the Texans secondary won’t go from back to solid or even bad to good. Of course, we are in the Optimism Bubble.

 

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The Coogs are back in action Friday night. Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images.

Sixteen may be sweet, but it isn’t the only relevant number as the NCAA Tournament heads into the regional semifinals.

Here are some other numbers worth knowing for each team. These statistics will help you learn more about each of the remaining teams and could explain how some of them got this far.

EAST REGION

UCONN: In UConn’s second-round victory over Northwestern, Donovan Clingan became just the third player in tournament history to get 14 points, 14 rebounds and eight blocks in a game. The others to do it were Hakeem Olajuwon for Houston in 1983 and David Robinson for Navy in 1986. The blocks also were the most ever by a UConn player in a tournament game.

SAN DIEGO STATE: The Aztecs’ Sweet 16 matchup with defending national champion UConn will mark the fourth time that two teams have faced each other in the tournament a year after meeting in the final. The losing team from the championship won the rematch in one of the three previous instances, when Duke beat UNLV in a 1991 semifinal. Cincinnati won two straight championship games over Ohio State in 1961-62. Florida beat UCLA in the 2006 championship game and in a 2007 semifinal.

ILLINOIS: Illinois has won six in a row, and Terrence Shannon Jr. has scored at least 25 points in each of those games. The 6-foot-6 guard has averaged 30.5 points and has shot 52.8% (56 of 106) from the floor during that stretch. He also shown an uncanny knack for drawing fouls during the streak. Over his last five games, Shannon has gone 51 of 58 on free-throw attempts.

IOWA STATE: Iowa State is allowing just 61.2 points per game to rank fourth among all Division I teams in scoring defense. Since falling 73-65 to Houston on Feb. 19, the Cyclones haven’t allowed any of their last 10 opponents to exceed 65 points. The Cyclones next face Illinois, which ranks ninth in points per game (84.6) and has averaged 91.3 points over its last four contests.

WEST REGION

ALABAMA: Mark Sears and Aaron Estrada were the first set of Division I teammates since 1996-97 to both have at least 410 points, 125 assists, 120 rebounds, 50 3-point baskets and 40 steals during the regular season. Sears is averaging 21.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.7 steals. Estrada has 13.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.7 steals per game.

NORTH CAROLINA: Armando Bacot had seven straight tournament double-doubles and six consecutive tourney games with at least 15 rebounds before he ended up with 18 points and seven boards in a second-round victory over Michigan State. His seven straight NCAA double-doubles matched Tim Duncan and Olajuwon for the NCAA record.

ARIZONA: Arizona’s first-round triumph over Long Beach State marked the 19th time this season the Wildcats had five different players score in double figures. No other Division I team had that many games this season in which five different players had at least 10 points.

CLEMSON: Each of Clemson’s first two tournament opponents has shot below 40% against the Tigers. Clemson won its first-round game by limiting New Mexico to 29.7% shooting, the lowest percentage the Tigers had ever allowed in an NCAA tourney game. Clemson now faces Arizona, which shot 52.8% in its second-round victory over Dayton.

MIDWEST REGION

CREIGHTON: Baylor Scheierman is the first Division I men’s player in history to have at least 2,000 career points, 1,000 rebounds, 500 assists and 300 3-point baskets. Scheierman, who is in his second season at Creighton after playing three seasons at South Dakota State, has 2,208 points, 1,250 rebounds, 578 assists and 352 3-pointers.

TENNESSEE: Tennessee is making its 10th Sweet 16 appearance – including its seventh in the last 18 years – but the Volunteers have never reached the Final Four and earned their lone regional final berth in 2010.

GONZAGA: Gonzaga is in the Sweet 16 for the ninth straight time, the longest active streak of any Division I team. Going back to 1975 – the first year that all teams had to win at least one game to reach the Sweet 16 – the record for consecutive Sweet 16 appearances is owned by North Carolina with 13 straight from 1981-93.

PURDUE: Zach Edey is the first player since Kareen Abdul-Jabbar (then known as Lew Alcindor) in 1968 to have at least 50 points and 35 rebounds while shooting 65% from the field in his first two games of an NCAA Tournament. Edey has shot 67.9% (19 of 28) and has totaled 53 points and 35 rebounds in victories over Grambling State and Utah State.

SOUTH REGION

DUKE: Jared McCain has gone 10 of 17 from 3-point range through the first two rounds. In the Blue Devils’ second-round blowout of James Madison, McCain became the first freshman to score at least 30 points without committing a turnover in an NCAA Tournament game since the event expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

HOUSTON: The Cougars showcased their depth by surviving a second-round matchup with Texas A&M in overtime even after four of their five starters fouled out. They became the first team to win an NCAA game while having at least four players foul out since 1987, when UTEP overcame foul trouble to beat Arizona.

MARQUETTE: Marquette owns a 75-29 record under coach Shaka Smart despite posting a negative rebound margin in each of his three seasons. The Golden Eagles have been outrebounded in each of their last eight games but have gone 5-3. They’re getting outrebounded by 3 boards per game this season. The only other Sweet 16 team with a negative rebound margin is North Carolina State (minus-0.8), which faces Marquette on Friday.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE: Mohamed Diarra has 6.4 points and 7.7 rebounds per game this season, but he’s averaged 11.7 points and 13.5 rebounds over his last six. Michael O’Connell scored in double digits three times and totaled 14 3-point baskets in 31 regular-season games. He’s reached double figures in six of seven postseason games and has gone 12 of 22 from 3-point range during that stretch.

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