FALCON POINTS

O'Brien to give up play calling duties for Texans as part of his new regime. What impact will it have?

Composite photo by Brandon Strange

Texans GM and coach Bill O'Brien addressed the media for the first time since his officially being named GM. Attending the scouting combine, he did drop one important announcement - he will turn over the offensive play-calling duties to Tim Kelly.

On the surface, this is a really good idea. O'Brien's play-calling has been questionable at best. In his six years as head coach, he has never managed a top 10 offense. But will it really make a difference?

In his own words

Here is the question O'Brien was asked and how he answered it:

How will your role on gameday change with Offensive Coordinator Tim Kelly calling plays this season?

"I don't think it changes it too much. I think that one of the bigger changes would be between series. I've spent a lot of time with Deshaun (Watson) and Tim, the offensive line, the running backs, the tight ends, the wide receivers on the bench there before we go out for the next series. I think I'm not going to do probably as much of that. I think I'll do more about being able to focus on the whole game, how the game is being played and things like that, but I don't think it changes it too much."

Sadly, he is probably right.

Past performances

Kelly coached for two years as a graduate assistant at Penn State before following O'Brien to Houston. He moved up to OC from Quality Control assistant.

O'Brien gave up play calling duties one other time, to George Godsey in 2015. Godsey was fired at the end of the 2016 season.

As much as we've been critical of O'Brien, he is to be commended for letting someone else call the plays. But can we really expect anything different with a coach who has followed O'Brien for almost all of his career?

And if it really doesn't change that much - O'Brien's own words - is it really a move that will work out?

The same can be said of promoting Anthony Weaver to defensive coordinator. Once before, O'Brien kicked Romeo Crennel upstairs. Mike Vrabel took over, and was miserable in his one year as DC before becoming head coach of the Titans.

So twice before, O'Brien has tried moves like this. It failed both times.

Going with rookies

That does not mean it will fail again. Kelly may improve the offense. Weaver is well-regarded and could turn out to be a good DC. The Texans are close enough, however, that you have to be concerned about two rookie play callers. The safer move (and many would argue smarter) would have been to bring in some experienced minds with a track record of success. But O'Brien prefers to promote from within. So far, it has not worked out.

But O'Brien finally has the full control he has sought all along. You could argue last season was his best yet. Still, the Texans remain the only AFC South team to fail to make an AFC Championship game during O'Brien's tenure.

How will it play out?

If it is like most of O'Brien's decisions, it will likely mean another run at the AFC South title, but expecting more remains optimistic. Still, O'Brien has a draft and free agency to get his kind of players to go with his kind of coaches.

And maybe, finally, he will have his kind of team. Maybe that will be the impetus to take them to the next level.

But no one will fault you for being skeptical.

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The Texans play their final preseason game against the Saints on Sunday night. Composite Getty Image.

The 2023 NFL season is basically here. Yes, there's another preseason game left to play. Yes, there's still 37 guys that need to be cut. Yes, there are some last minute tweaks and changes to season plans that need to be made. Yes, DeMeco Ryans will name a starting quarterback (cough, C.J. Stroud, cough). And yes, bets will be placed. With that being said, here's a look at some of the futures that involved the Texans:

O/U 6.5 season win total: When last season ended, this number was hovering around four or four and a half in most places. Enter DeMeco Ryans, his new staff, C.J. Stroud, and Will Anderson Jr. Expectations shot up to the tune of an additional two games. If Vegas thinks the Texans can potentially win seven games, who am I to argue? I'm leaning on the under here, but barely. The run defense in that Dolphins game scared me. So does a rookie quarterback starting when his offensive line isn't all healthy. I'll be glad to be wrong about this one.

Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr +350: The rookie EDGE is the leader in the clubhouse for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Next best odds belong to Eagles' Jalen Carter at +600. Anderson Jr is easily the one guy that will have the highest impact on his new team when comparing the rookies. This defense has been void of an effective pass rush since J.J. Watt's Comeback Player of the Year award in the 2018 season. He's the prototypical pass rusher playing for a coach that helped shape one of the baddest defenses in the league over the last several years. I think this is a safe bet.

Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud +850: While Stroud has shown signs of his skill set that made him the number two overall pick, he still has a way to go. The receivers aren't great, the offensive line is banged up, the run game is decent, and he's presumably going to be thrown in the fire. This award usually goes to a rookie who contributes to a playoff team, or the quarterback that puts up good numbers on an exciting losing team. I don't see Stroud putting up crazy numbers. Instead, I'd put money on a running back or receiver to win it this year. Another one I hope I'm wrong about, but worth a small flyer on.

Texans win AFC South +850/AFC +10000: Miracles happen every day. The blind regain sight. The cripple walk. You get the point. However, I can only see a scenario of the Texans winning the AFC South if the Jags fall completely off, the Titans continue to take steps back, and the Colts implode after trading their best player. Too much has to go right for them to win the division, much less make a Super Bowl appearance. If you want, place the minimum bet allowed just in case.

While Vegas seems to see the Texans as a team on the come up, they're still not convinced this team is worthy of contending for a playoff spot. I'm okay with them not being highly thought of right now. That will give them the element of surprise when it comes to others taking them lightly. By others, I mean other fan bases and media of opposing teams. No NFL team should be taken lightly by another NFL team. They're all professionals who work incredibly hard to get to where they are. Again, I hope I'm wrong about a couple of these. I'd love nothing more than to be writing another article eating crow in January. This is why they play the games. CUE HERM EDWARDS!

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