Tracking the rain

WeatherMap Imelda update: The storm went easy on us last night, but we are only at halftime

WeatherMap Imelda update: The storm went easy on us last night, but we are only at halftime
College of DuPage

Good morning everyone. By and large the Houston metro area made it through last night unscathed. While I know people are already starting to label this storm a bust, we are really only at halftime here. Last night the storm progressed further inland than originally expected which is what raised my concern for heavy rain last night. Thankfully that did not develop over the city and most spots ended the day yesterday with very manageable rainfall totals in the 2-4 inch range. Further south though coastal areas of Brazoria and Matagorda counties got absolutely hammered. Spots near Freeport for example picked up 15-20 inches of rain yesterday. So with the first half in the books lets take a look at where things go from here.

From the time concern really began to rise regarding this storm back on Monday the Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning period was really the period we were most worried about. This morning the center of the storm has broadened as it "unwinds" now that it is over land, however this does not mean the rainfall potential decreases. On radar we can see that the center is near The Woodlands and strong bands of storms extend well to the south along the coast and curve back up into the Beaumont area.


10 AM radarCollege of DuPage

Over the course of the day today and into tonight I expect coverage of heavy rain to move further inland as the center continues pulling off to the north. Two of the high resolution short range models we use have continued to show an intense band of storms developing along the I-10 corridor between Houston and Beaumont late this afternoon and into tonight. We will have to watch how this develops as the afternoon commute could be impacted.

One model's simulated radar Wednesday morning thru Thursday lunch time.Weathermodels.com


Another model's simulated radar for Wednesday morning thru Thursday evening.


Foretasted accumulations through Thursday evening from the model in the image above


If this band does indeed develop and parks itself over the wrong place flooding will be a concern. With these models try not to focus on pinpoint locations, rather look at the general idea that another round of heavy rain is still in the cards. While it does appear that the most likely location for for bombs of very high accumulations has shifted a bit to the east, say east of HWY 59, it is not time to let or guard down yet.

I know people are itching to say this storm amounted to nothing but hype, but it would be unwise to declare it dead yet. This area has a history of storms that bring a light first punch only to return with a knockout blow a day or two later. While I am in no way comparing the impacts of this storm to Harvey or Allison it is important to remember that both of those storms had people declaring them busts halfway through before the second round came. If by Thursday night all is well, I will personally declare Imelda a bust, but we are not there yet.


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The Astros are changing the batting order. Composite Getty Image.

Astros GM Dana Brown joined the Astros flagship on Wednesday and discussed several trending topics impacting the club right now.

Are they open to changing the batting order?

It's no secret Alex Bregman is off to another slow start. But how much longer can you bat a guy at cleanup who has 5 RBIs and no home runs on the season? When asked about it, Brown sounded open to the idea of moving Bregman until he starts heating up.

“Yeah, I think at some point Joe will make an adjustment there,” said Brown. Overall though, he sounds more concerned with the team's inability to hit with runners in scoring position. He's not happy with the quality of their at-bats in critical situations. He also made it clear that Espada is in charge of the lineup, just like Dusty Baker was before him.

That didn't take long!

The Astros lineup has been released for game two against the Cubs. Notice Bregman is hitting second and Yordan Alvarez is batting third.

Injury updates

Cristian Javier heading to the IL was a “cautionary” move with the team having so many days off. Brown said Javier missing only two starts felt like the smart move. Pitching him too soon in a cold environment like Chicago felt too risky. And Framber Valdez could return to the rotation after the series in Mexico City.

Jose Abreu can't be the best option at first base

Brown addressed the Abreu situation just like Espada did on Tuesday. They both talked about “mixing and matching” and how they've already done some of that this year. But Abreu was in the lineup again on Tuesday, and once again did not record a hit. You have to wonder if Espada and Brown are being pressured to start Abreu. But then again, Brown made it clear that the guys getting opportunities when Abreu sits, aren't coming through either. He's not wrong. Singleton is getting the start on Wednesday, and Dubon (who has the third-most RBIs on the team) is sitting once again.

Is there any accountability for players that don't perform?

Brown responded by saying, “I do think these guys are taking this seriously.” He also mentioned there are some players in the minors playing well, and at some point they'll have to make a move. “There's some urgency in that respect,” said Brown. This comment applied to both position players and pitchers. Which makes me think JP France better get things going. Dana said in passing several times that you're not giving your team a legit chance to win by allowing five runs in the first inning. Even if you do settle down over the next few innings.

Playing with a sense of urgency

Brown was asked if the team's approach would be the same if they were 5.5 games back with only 30 games left to play. This response was very interesting.

He said, “Dubon would sneak in there a little more” and they would play the guys that are more consistently producing. That statement made me feel much better. Brown and Espada see the same things we see. Dana pointed out that you try to give your best hitters a chance to get going early in the year. If that doesn't work, you look for other options. Clearly, the Astros aren't to the point in the season when winning each game is the top priority. The MLB season is a marathon.

“You can't start sprinting too early,” said Brown. If the Astros were in a better division, you wonder if they would feel differently. They keep saying they're only 5.5 games back in the division, which is true. But he never mentioned that the team is ten games under .500.


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