THE PALLILOG

Charlie Pallilo: Previewing and predicting the Rockets-Warriors series

Steph Curry and the Warriors will be tough to beat. Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Some day in the next five or six weeks the Rockets-Warriors Western Conference Finals showdown will get under way. What the hey, we’ve basically been waiting on it for six months so what’s a few more days? Very few would give the Rockets a good shot had they not earned homecourt advantage. But they did. Alas, over the next couple of weeks I think this fantastic Rockets’ season with its slogan of Run As One, winds up Run is Done. So many angles on this series, so let’s go…

The fundamental difference that makes Golden State the better team is Kevin Durant. The Rockets have no remotely close to even match for him.

The backcourt matchup is stupendous, one of the greatest of all-time with three surefire Hall of Famers and with the fourth a decent bet. Can’t come up with an equal since the late '80s when the Magic Johnson-Byron Scott Laker tandem went up against the Pistons’ Isiah Thomas and Joe Dumars. There is no sound reason to believe that Chris Paul and James Harden will notably outplay Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, or vice versa.

In his 13th NBA season Paul finally gets a taste of the NBA’s version of the Final Four. It is unreasonable to ask or hope for Paul to be as brilliant against the Warriors as he was in the series clincher over the Jazz, but Paul will have to be sensational for the Rockets to pull off the upset. Paul’s presence at least gives them a fighting chance. We’ve seen how the Rockets fare against the Warriors without a second major star turn; they can’t keep up.

Harden meanwhile will have to be much better than he was in the Utah series. After his phenomenal Game 1 Harden generally stunk the rest of the way. 39 percent shooting from the floor and a sub-pitiful 19 percent behind the three point line are numbers more worthy of Marcia Gay Harden, and against the Warriors would be a ticket to shame.

Paul in particular will have a much more taxing defensive burden vs. Golden State than he did vs. Utah. The Jazz had just one gifted offensive perimeter player in Donovan Mitchell, and Paul typically did not guard him. Against the Warriors “Death Lineup” Harden can be placed/rested on Andre Iguodala. Paul then has to be on Curry or Thompson, with Ariza on the other while P.J. Tucker draws the Durant straw with Clint Capela on Draymond Green. Paul’s skill level is extraordinary and his mid-range mastery dramatically improves the Rockets’ chances against the Golden State defense. However, Paul is 33 years old and within a game and over the run of the series his legs will be tested. Neither Minnesota nor Utah plays high pace basketball. The Warriors can obliterate teams with it.

In Curry, Thompson, and Durant the Warriors have three shooters who are better than all Rockets’ shooters. Curry’s and Thompson’s WORST 3-point shooting percentage seasons are better than Harden’s BEST. Curry’s worst equal’s Paul’s best. However, the Rockets hoped for equalizer is in volume, volume, volume. Hardly anybody not knowing otherwise would believe the Warriors were only 17th in the NBA this season in 3-pointers attempted, though Curry missing 31 games explains part of that. The Warriors led the league in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, and free throw percentage, while the Rockets ranked 15th, 13th, and ninth respectively.

Standard caveat: stats of the long haul have no necessary bearing on the short haul. Golden State’s seeming weaker points could be products of their cruising through much of the regular season. They certainly didn’t have the consistency of intensity and performance the Rockets displayed in securing 65 wins. The Warriors also had more injury problems. But for what it’s worth, this season Golden State was a bottom 10 rebounding team, can be sloppy with the ball (third worst offensive turnover percentage), and after three straight seasons finishing top five in defensive rating, slipped to 11th.

It’s not a monumental surprise if a 65 win team takes down the defending champs. In the end though, seeing is believing. The way LeBron James is playing, if the Cavs beat the Celtics no one should think of the NBA Final as anti-climactic. If James makes an eighth consecutive Finals appearance and wins his fourth championship., the LeBron vs. Michael Jordan for Greatest of All-Time debate gets very serious. Still feels like this series is final exam time for the Rockets. Salutatorian is very impressive. Warriors in 6.

Buzzer Beaters

1. Thru Wednesday Evan Gattis’s batting average plus Derek Fisher’s batting average was .385. At AAA J.D. Davis was at .450.   2. Happy Mother’s Day to all Moms. 3. Best sports Days: Bronze-Todd Silver-Jason Gold-Opening

 

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Houston drops the game to Arizona

D-backs outslug Greinke and Astros to take series opener

Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images

With the series win over the Rangers by taking two of three games in the middle of the week, the Astros welcomed the Diamondbacks to Minute Maid Park for a three-game weekend series, Houston's final three regular-season home games. Here is how the opener unfolded:

Final Score: Diamondbacks 6, Astros 3.

Record: 25-26, second in the AL West.

Winning pitcher: Zac Gallen (2-2, 3.00 ERA).

Losing pitcher: Luis Garcia (0-1, 2.53 ERA).

Houston scores first, but Arizona grabs a lead against Greinke

Houston would get on the board first on Friday night, with George Springer reaching base in the bottom of the first on an error, moving to second on a walk, then to third on a single, as the Astros loaded the bases with no out to threaten a big inning. Instead, they would come away with just one run, with Springer taking home on a wild pitch, grabbing the 1-0 lead, but leaving runs on the table.

They doubled their lead in the bottom of the third, getting a two-out RBI-double by Kyle Tucker to make it a 2-0 Houston lead. The D-backs responded in the top of the fourth, getting back-to-back singles to lead off the inning before a three-run homer by Kole Calhoun off of Zack Greinke would put Arizona in front, 3-2. Greinke would finish one more inning before Houston would move to their bullpen, striking out the side to bring his total to nine on the night, making the bad fourth inning the one blemish on his night. His final line: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 9 K, 1 HR, 89 P.

Astros tie it, but D-backs take the opener

George Springer would get Greinke off the hook in the bottom of the fifth, leading off the half-inning with a solo bomb to tie the game at 3-3. Luis Garcia was first out of Houston's bullpen and retired Arizona in order for a 1-2-3 inning in the top of the sixth. He returned for the top of the seventh but would allow a leadoff single, RBI-triple, and wild pitch to bring in two runs. He would face two more batters, allowing a double and getting a strikeout, before Dusty Baker would come out to get him, now down 5-3.

Blake Taylor would make his return from the IL after Garcia, getting back-to-back outs to finish the inning. He continued on in the 5-3 game in the top of the eighth, but allowed a one-out solo homer to Calhoun, his second of the night and fourth RBI. That made it a 6-3 D-backs lead, which would go final as Houston would go scoreless after Springer's home run back in the fifth.

Up Next: The middle game of this three-game set will start Saturday at 6:10 PM Central. The pitching matchup will be Luke Weaver (1-7, 6.70 ERA) for Arizona and Cristian Javier (4-2, 3.22 ERA) for Houston.

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