Charlie Pallilo: Previewing and predicting the Rockets-Warriors series

Steph Curry and the Warriors will be tough to beat. Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Some day in the next five or six weeks the Rockets-Warriors Western Conference Finals showdown will get under way. What the hey, we’ve basically been waiting on it for six months so what’s a few more days? Very few would give the Rockets a good shot had they not earned homecourt advantage. But they did. Alas, over the next couple of weeks I think this fantastic Rockets’ season with its slogan of Run As One, winds up Run is Done. So many angles on this series, so let’s go…

The fundamental difference that makes Golden State the better team is Kevin Durant. The Rockets have no remotely close to even match for him.

The backcourt matchup is stupendous, one of the greatest of all-time with three surefire Hall of Famers and with the fourth a decent bet. Can’t come up with an equal since the late '80s when the Magic Johnson-Byron Scott Laker tandem went up against the Pistons’ Isiah Thomas and Joe Dumars. There is no sound reason to believe that Chris Paul and James Harden will notably outplay Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, or vice versa.

In his 13th NBA season Paul finally gets a taste of the NBA’s version of the Final Four. It is unreasonable to ask or hope for Paul to be as brilliant against the Warriors as he was in the series clincher over the Jazz, but Paul will have to be sensational for the Rockets to pull off the upset. Paul’s presence at least gives them a fighting chance. We’ve seen how the Rockets fare against the Warriors without a second major star turn; they can’t keep up.

Harden meanwhile will have to be much better than he was in the Utah series. After his phenomenal Game 1 Harden generally stunk the rest of the way. 39 percent shooting from the floor and a sub-pitiful 19 percent behind the three point line are numbers more worthy of Marcia Gay Harden, and against the Warriors would be a ticket to shame.

Paul in particular will have a much more taxing defensive burden vs. Golden State than he did vs. Utah. The Jazz had just one gifted offensive perimeter player in Donovan Mitchell, and Paul typically did not guard him. Against the Warriors “Death Lineup” Harden can be placed/rested on Andre Iguodala. Paul then has to be on Curry or Thompson, with Ariza on the other while P.J. Tucker draws the Durant straw with Clint Capela on Draymond Green. Paul’s skill level is extraordinary and his mid-range mastery dramatically improves the Rockets’ chances against the Golden State defense. However, Paul is 33 years old and within a game and over the run of the series his legs will be tested. Neither Minnesota nor Utah plays high pace basketball. The Warriors can obliterate teams with it.

In Curry, Thompson, and Durant the Warriors have three shooters who are better than all Rockets’ shooters. Curry’s and Thompson’s WORST 3-point shooting percentage seasons are better than Harden’s BEST. Curry’s worst equal’s Paul’s best. However, the Rockets hoped for equalizer is in volume, volume, volume. Hardly anybody not knowing otherwise would believe the Warriors were only 17th in the NBA this season in 3-pointers attempted, though Curry missing 31 games explains part of that. The Warriors led the league in field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, and free throw percentage, while the Rockets ranked 15th, 13th, and ninth respectively.

Standard caveat: stats of the long haul have no necessary bearing on the short haul. Golden State’s seeming weaker points could be products of their cruising through much of the regular season. They certainly didn’t have the consistency of intensity and performance the Rockets displayed in securing 65 wins. The Warriors also had more injury problems. But for what it’s worth, this season Golden State was a bottom 10 rebounding team, can be sloppy with the ball (third worst offensive turnover percentage), and after three straight seasons finishing top five in defensive rating, slipped to 11th.

It’s not a monumental surprise if a 65 win team takes down the defending champs. In the end though, seeing is believing. The way LeBron James is playing, if the Cavs beat the Celtics no one should think of the NBA Final as anti-climactic. If James makes an eighth consecutive Finals appearance and wins his fourth championship., the LeBron vs. Michael Jordan for Greatest of All-Time debate gets very serious. Still feels like this series is final exam time for the Rockets. Salutatorian is very impressive. Warriors in 6.

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The Longhorns host Georgia on Saturday night. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.

By any measure, from the official statistics to the informal eye test, top-ranked Texas' defense has been dominant.

The Longhorns rank No. 1 in total defense and scoring defense. They are top 10 in first downs allowed, tackles for loss and passing yards. Much of that is built against opponents starting former walk-on quarterbacks ( Michigan ) and freshmen ( Mississippi State and Oklahoma.)

But the level of quarterback play Texas will face, in both talent and experience, is about to get much better over the second half of the season.

Texas hosts No. 5 Georgia on Saturday night in the first matchup of top five teams in Austin since 2006, before playing the next week at Vanderbilt. Bulldogs senior Carson Beck was a preseason first team Associated Press All-America pick, and standout Vanderbilt transfer Diego Pavia has carried the Commodores to a surprising 4-2 start, including a historic win over then-No. 1 Alabama.

Quite simply, Texas hasn't defended this caliber of quarterback all season.

Beck is a player on the doorstep of the NFL, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said.

“There's nothing in the throw game (Beck) can't do,” Sarkisian said. “He's played enough football now, too. It's kind of hard to confuse guys when they've played that much football.”

Texas (6-0, 2-0 SEC) has allowed just one team to pass for more than 200 yards this season. Beck passed for 459 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions last week in a 41-31 win over Mississippi State. His 36 completions set a Georgia record.

Even when Beck struggled early in Georgia's loss to Alabama, he rallied the Bulldogs to a late fourth-quarter lead. He finished with 439 yards in the loss where Georgia's rally ended with an Alabama interception in the end zone in the final minute.

Sarkisian recruited Beck when the Texas coach was an assistant at Alabama. Beck had initially committed to the Crimson Tide before switching to Georgia.

Beck is 18-2 in his career as a starter, and 6-2 against top 20 opponents.

The Bulldogs (5-1, 3-1) will need another exceptional game from him Saturday. A second SEC loss could threaten any chance of playing for the SEC championship, and raise the alarms on the College Football Playoff as well.

Texas has all but overwhelmed opposing quarterbacks so far.

In last week's 34-3 thrashing of rival Oklahoma, the Longhorns sacked Sooners freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. five times, and held him to 27 yards on 20 carries. Texas allowed just 225 total yards.

Hawkins was the first Sooners freshman to start at quarterback against the Longhorns in the 120-year history of the rivalry and was quickly swallowed up by a relentless pass rush.

By the numbers, the Longhorns program is on pace for a historic season. Sarkisian has said his favorite stat is points allowed, which is not many.

Texas has surrendered only three touchdowns all season. Opponents have snatched four turnovers inside Texas territory, but none have produced points.

That ability to snuff momentum can drain an opponent, Sarkisian said.

“We're so composed as a defense,” Texas safety Michael Taaffe said. “We're so confident, that no matter what happens, everything is going to be alright.”

The only time Texas has trailed this season was a 3-0 early deficit against Oklahoma. Several Longhorns starters were still on the field when the Sooners' final drive stalled at the Texas 6-yard-line as the game ended.

The stars emerging for the Longhorns have been second-year linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and freshman edge rusher Colin Simmons.

Hill leads the team in total tackles (42), sacks (4 1/2) and tackles for loss (8 1/2). His sideline-to-sideline speed and move this season from the edge to the middle of the Texas defense has drawn comparisons to former Longhorns All-American Derrick Johnson 20 years ago.

Simmons has four sacks and 7 1/2 tackles for losses, second on the team in both categories.

“Size, speed,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said in summing up the Texas defense.

“They’re the complete package on defense," Smart said. "The consistency you watch them play with, it reminds me of some of our best teams here.”By any measure, from the official statistics to the informal eye test, top-ranked Texas' defense has been dominant.