LEADER OF THE PACK

How Astros can navigate latest leadership challenges, pivotal opportunities ahead

Astros Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve
Could deferring money be the secret to re-signing Jose Altuve? Composite Getty Image.

Maybe it was the excitement of the Houston Texans’ improbable run to the NFL postseason, or the Houston Rockets suddenly becoming competitive again … but the 2024 baseball season sure has crept up on us fast.

How much do you love that Astros pitchers and catchers report to spring training in just two weeks, on Valentine’s Day? That’s amore.

For a team in full bloom of a historic run – you know the numbers, seven consecutive ALCS, four World Series appearances, two championships – the Astros enter the 2024 season with more question marks than the Riddler’s three-piece suit.

With the dust finally settled on the Astros’ disappointing 2023 campaign (yeah, they only finished tied for the AL West and took eventual World Series champions Texas Rangers to seven games in the ALCS), it becomes clearer that last year was a season of turmoil. Now we can see just how deep the distrust and disgust was between general manager Dana Brown and field manager Dusty Baker.

Before the Minute Maid Park roof closed on the 2023 season, Brown began dismantling Baker’s vision of the Astros. First, Baker was gone without so much as a “you’ll always be part of the Astros family” or meaningless title of “Executive Consultant in Charge of Nothing.” Baker’s departure wasn’t a retirement or a kick upstairs – it was just goodbye.

Brown finally was able to hire his own manager and picked longtime bench coach Joe Espada. Will Espada be the right choice, a veteran trusted soldier who has the support of the clubhouse, or the coach who interviewed for several managerial jobs over the years and couldn’t get a bite?

With Dusty Baker’s teacher’s pet Martin Maldonado gone, will young slugger Yanier Diaz fulfill his promise as the No. 1 catcher? The Astros won’t miss Maldonado’s weak bat and eroded defensive skills, but Maldy was undeniably a team leader in the clubhouse. When the Astros needed a verbal kick in the butt, it usually was Maldonado unleashing the tongue lashing. Who will step up as the Astros’ emotional team leader?

It isn’t escaping fans’ attention that Jose Altuve, the greatest Astro ever, is entering his free agent year seemingly without an extension offer on the table. While most believe that the Astros will do whatever it takes to keep Altuve in Houston, a total gag order exists on Alex Bregman’s future. Conventional wisdom says the Astros will keep Bregman through the upcoming season, pass on swallowing a long-term, big-money contract, and let him escape via free agency. However, with Shohei Ohtani signing a ridiculous $700 million contract packed with deferred, interest-free payments, conventional wisdom ain’t so conventional anymore. The Astros maybe, just maybe, could get creative and keep both Altuve and Bregman.

Does Justin Verlander have enough left in his tank to be more than a 5-inning starter? With Maldonado gone, will diva Framber Valdez accept Diaz as his battery mate? Will Lance McCullers ever be a rotation guy? Will Kyle Tucker continue his path to superstardom or stew over the team’s reluctance to sign him to a fair market multiyear extension? Will Jake Meyers become a legit everyday center fielder? Will Josh Hader put the exclamation point on a shutdown bullpen?

The Astros should have enough for another run at a World Series ring, but cracks are showing in the foundation. While the Astros tied for the division title in 2023, they finished with 16 fewer wins than 2022. Surely it galls Astros owner Jim Crane that the World Series champs are the other team in Texas.

Vegas’ confidence in the Astros hasn’t wavered, though. Oddsmakers have the Astros as the (+800) favorite to win the American League pennant. The only teams with shorter odds to win the World Series are the Dodgers (+350) and Braves (+550).

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The Chiefs are favored by nine points. Composite Getty Image.

If you are a believer in the third time is a charm, go ahead and book the Texans for their first ever appearance in the AFC Championship game! Saturday is the Texans’ third crack at the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs. Of course, the Texans had a third time is the charm opportunity at advancing beyond the division round back in 2016 and came nowhere close. Charm will have nothing to do with the outcome at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs have administered the Texans’ two most humiliating postseason defeats in franchise history. They came as the bookend postseason appearances of Bill O’Brien’s tenure as head coach. In 2015, the Texans won the worst division in the AFC (that sounds familiar) but as a division champ got to play host to the Wild Card 11-5 Chiefs. The visitors were three-point favorites. They won by 30. 30-0 to be more precise. Knile Davis returned the opening kickoff 106 yards for a touchdown. It would have been in the Texans’ best interest to have forfeited right then and there. In what was not exactly a shocking development, Texans’ quarterback Brian Hoyer wasn’t up to the task, throwing for just 112 yards and four interceptions. On the Chiefs’ side third-year tight end Travis Kelce had eight receptions for 128 yards. Taylor Swift was not in attendance.

The second Texans-Chiefs playoff get together is the most incredible game in Texans’ history. The Texans showed up in Missouri fresh off the greatest comeback win in their history, having come from down 16-0 in the third quarter to best the Buffalo Bills in overtime. In what could safely be characterized as stunning, the Texans put up three first quarter touchdowns for a 21-0 lead. *Massive bonus points if you can name the three Texans who scored those TDs, answer below. A field goal made it 24-0 Texans with 10:54 left in the second quarter. In a collapse tough to pull off, the Texans would trail before halftime. The Chiefs scored four touchdowns in nine minutes and eleven seconds of game time, with that Kelce fellow scoring the last three of them. Some will recall O’Brien calling a fake punt from his own 31-yard line with the Texans up 24-7. Too soon? Justin Reid (now pursuing his third Super Bowl ring in three seasons as a Chief) was stopped short. An even more damning O’Brien moment came later in that game when he actually had to use a timeout to change his mind and go for it with 11:49 left in the fourth quarter, the Texans down 48-31, and facing fourth and four at the K.C. 42. That was a fire-able on the spot offense! Instead it took an 0-4 start to the 2020 season for O’Brien to be ousted. 51-31 Chiefs was the final score, and they went on to win the first of their three Super Bowl titles in the ongoing Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era.

Back to the present

Those routs were then, this is now. For a 15-2 team the Chiefs seem vulnerable. Maximum credit to them for having won an NFL record 16 consecutive games decided by eight or fewer points, 11 of them this season including their 27-19 victory over the Texans December 21. Perhaps the two-time defending champions were often bored with the regular season and often did just enough to win. The Texans would have been tied with them late in the third quarter had Ka’imi Fairbairn not botched an extra point. On the other hand, it was the play that got them within 17-16 which resulted in Tank Dell’s catastrophic season-ending knee injury. Who besides Nico Collins will do something in the passing game Saturday? Last Saturday the Texans’ pass rush harassed and flustered Chargers’ quarterback Justin Herbert. Mahomes is a different breed. Four weeks ago the Texans sacked Mahomes just once and did not intercept him. That seemingly must change for the Texans to pull off what be a shocker for most people. Saturday’s high temperature forecast for Kansas City is 25 degrees. Not ideal for the Texans but better than if the game had been scheduled for Sunday when the high is supposed to be 16.

Still standing

Four Texans who dressed for the debacle five years ago will suit up against the Chiefs Saturday: Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard who were in their first season with the team, Fairbairn, and long snapper Jon Weeks. Granted he’s just a long snapper (important role but not physically taxing), but Weeks is in his 15th season with the Texans and has yet to miss a game-244 regular season games (with Saturday his 14th playoff game, also without a miss). Presuming he is back next season, Weeks (who turns 39 next month) can crack the top five list of most consecutive games played in NFL history by answering the bell in the first 12 regular season games.

*The Texans’ three early TDS in the 51-31 loss at KC: 1. Kenny Stills a 54-yard reception 2. Lonnie Johnson with a 10-yard return of a blocked punt 3. Darren Fells with a four-yard grab

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!

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