LEADER OF THE PACK
How Astros can navigate latest leadership challenges, pivotal opportunities ahead
Jan 30, 2024, 3:25 pm
Could deferring money be the secret to re-signing Jose Altuve? Composite Getty Image.
Maybe it was the excitement of the Houston Texans’ improbable run to the NFL postseason, or the Houston Rockets suddenly becoming competitive again … but the 2024 baseball season sure has crept up on us fast.
How much do you love that Astros pitchers and catchers report to spring training in just two weeks, on Valentine’s Day? That’s amore.
For a team in full bloom of a historic run – you know the numbers, seven consecutive ALCS, four World Series appearances, two championships – the Astros enter the 2024 season with more question marks than the Riddler’s three-piece suit.
With the dust finally settled on the Astros’ disappointing 2023 campaign (yeah, they only finished tied for the AL West and took eventual World Series champions Texas Rangers to seven games in the ALCS), it becomes clearer that last year was a season of turmoil. Now we can see just how deep the distrust and disgust was between general manager Dana Brown and field manager Dusty Baker.
Before the Minute Maid Park roof closed on the 2023 season, Brown began dismantling Baker’s vision of the Astros. First, Baker was gone without so much as a “you’ll always be part of the Astros family” or meaningless title of “Executive Consultant in Charge of Nothing.” Baker’s departure wasn’t a retirement or a kick upstairs – it was just goodbye.
Brown finally was able to hire his own manager and picked longtime bench coach Joe Espada. Will Espada be the right choice, a veteran trusted soldier who has the support of the clubhouse, or the coach who interviewed for several managerial jobs over the years and couldn’t get a bite?
With Dusty Baker’s teacher’s pet Martin Maldonado gone, will young slugger Yanier Diaz fulfill his promise as the No. 1 catcher? The Astros won’t miss Maldonado’s weak bat and eroded defensive skills, but Maldy was undeniably a team leader in the clubhouse. When the Astros needed a verbal kick in the butt, it usually was Maldonado unleashing the tongue lashing. Who will step up as the Astros’ emotional team leader?
It isn’t escaping fans’ attention that Jose Altuve, the greatest Astro ever, is entering his free agent year seemingly without an extension offer on the table. While most believe that the Astros will do whatever it takes to keep Altuve in Houston, a total gag order exists on Alex Bregman’s future. Conventional wisdom says the Astros will keep Bregman through the upcoming season, pass on swallowing a long-term, big-money contract, and let him escape via free agency. However, with Shohei Ohtani signing a ridiculous $700 million contract packed with deferred, interest-free payments, conventional wisdom ain’t so conventional anymore. The Astros maybe, just maybe, could get creative and keep both Altuve and Bregman.
Does Justin Verlander have enough left in his tank to be more than a 5-inning starter? With Maldonado gone, will diva Framber Valdez accept Diaz as his battery mate? Will Lance McCullers ever be a rotation guy? Will Kyle Tucker continue his path to superstardom or stew over the team’s reluctance to sign him to a fair market multiyear extension? Will Jake Meyers become a legit everyday center fielder? Will Josh Hader put the exclamation point on a shutdown bullpen?
The Astros should have enough for another run at a World Series ring, but cracks are showing in the foundation. While the Astros tied for the division title in 2023, they finished with 16 fewer wins than 2022. Surely it galls Astros owner Jim Crane that the World Series champs are the other team in Texas.
Vegas’ confidence in the Astros hasn’t wavered, though. Oddsmakers have the Astros as the (+800) favorite to win the American League pennant. The only teams with shorter odds to win the World Series are the Dodgers (+350) and Braves (+550).
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Here's what the next era of Astros baseball will look like
Dec 13, 2024, 8:31 pm
Miami (6-7) at Houston (8-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, CBS
BetMGM Odds: Texans by 3.
Against the spread: Dolphins 5-8; Texans 5-6-2.
Series record: Texans lead 8-3.
Last meeting: Dolphins beat Texans 30-15, on Nov. 27, 2022, in Miami.
Last week: Dolphins beat Jets 32-26 in OT; Texans were off, beat Jaguars 23-20 on Dec. 1.
Dolphins offense: overall (19), rush (24), pass (14), scoring (23).
Dolphins defense: overall (9), rush (7), pass (11), scoring (T14).
Texans offense: overall (18), rush (16), pass (17), scoring (11).
Texans defense: overall (5), rush (10), pass (7), scoring (T12).
Turnover differential: Dolphins minus-2; Texans plus-10.
Dolphins player to watch
QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing with anticipation and accuracy since he returned from a concussion in Week 8. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with a 73.8% completion rate and threw for 300 yards for the third straight game last week vs. the Jets. Tagovailoa is the first player in NFL history to have at least 40 pass attempts, multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games within a single season.
Texans player to watch
QB C.J. Stroud has thrown for at least 225 yards in each of his six home games this season and is 11-4 in 15 starts in Houston, including the playoffs. He has thrown for 3,117 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season.
Key matchup
Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. Miami’s run defense. Mixon ran for 101 yards in Houston’s previous game for his seventh 100-yard game this season. He ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game. This week he’ll face a run defense that ranks seventh in the NFL by holding teams to 105.6 yards a game.
Key injuries
Miami LT Terron Armstead is dealing with a knee injury that limited him to just five snaps last week. He did not practice Wednesday… LBs Bradley Chubb (knee) and Cameron Goode (knee) could make their season debut, depending on how this week of practice goes, coach Mike McDaniel said. … WRs Tyreek Hill (wrist) and Jaylen Waddle (hamstring), RB Raheem Mostert (hip), and LB Anthony Walker Jr. (hamstring) were among those limited in practice Wednesday. … Houston S Jalen Pitre is expected to miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury. … DE Denico Autry was limited in practice Wednesday because of a knee injury.
Series notes
Houston won the first seven meetings in this series. … Miami didn’t get its first win against the Texans until a 44-26 victory in 2015. … The Dolphins have won the past two meetings. … These teams first met in the season opener in 2003 when Houston got a 21-20 win on a late field goal.
Stats and stuff
Three of Miami’s final four games of the season are on the road. … K Jason Sanders needs 13 points Sunday to reach 800. He also needs one field goal to reach 177, which would give him the second-most field goals made in franchise history. … TE Jonnu Smith needs 100 yards receiving to reach 792 and set a franchise record for most yards receiving by a tight end in a single season. Smith had three catches for 44 yards, including the game-winning TD vs. the Jets last week after having no receptions during regulation. … Tagovailoa needs a completion rate of 70% or better on Sunday to reach eight consecutive games completing at least 70% of his passes. That would tie him with Joe Montana (1989) and Drew Brees (2017-18) for the longest streak in NFL history. … The Dolphins gave up a season-high 402 yards to the Jets last week. Aaron Rodgers burned Miami’s pass defense for 319 yards, and Miami’s secondary allowed a combined 223 yards by Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. … Houston can clinch the AFC South title for the second straight year with a win and a loss by Indianapolis Sunday. … The Texans rank second in the NFL with 84 tackles for loss. … Their 42 sacks also rank second. … WR Nico Collins had eight receptions for 119 yards for his fourth 100-yard game this season in Houston’s previous game. He has had at least 75 yards receiving and a TD reception in each of his four home games this season. … TE Dalton Schultz had five receptions for 61 yards and a score in Week 13. He has had at least five catches in two of his past three games. … LB Azeez Al-Shaai will serve the first game of a three-game suspension for an illegal hit to the head of QB Trevor Lawrence Sunday. … DE Danielle Hunter is one of two players in the NFL this season with at least 15 tackles for loss (15) and 10 sacks (10 1/2). It’s his sixth career season with at least 10 sacks. He has eight tackles for loss and five sacks combined in his past three games. … DE Will Anderson has had a sack in his past two home games. … LB Henry To’oTo’o has had at least five tackles in four straight games. … CB Derek Stingley had his third interception of the season in his previous game. … CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high eight tackles, including a tackle for loss in Week 13. … S Jimmie Ward has had an interception in his past two home games. He also had an interception in his previous game against Miami in 2022 while with San Francisco.
Fantasy tip
Collins has 456 yards receiving and four touchdown receptions in four home games this season.