THE PALLILOG
Eye-popping context for CJ Stroud’s ascendance puts Texans on the clock
Nov 9, 2023, 3:54 pm
Houston will be a popular destination for free agents moving forward. Composite Getty Image.
One of my favorite quotes that I try to use somewhere at least once per year comes from 19th century author and poet Robert Louis Stevenson. Among many other things Stevenson said “It is better to travel hopefully than to arrive.” As a fan of any sports team the ultimate desire of course is to see your team win a championship. But even more than that, as a sports fan what you really want is hope. The hopeful journey toward greatness and/or a title is ongoing pleasure and entertainment. A pot of gold is a great thing to come across, but the rainbow is where the beauty lies. Even without getting the pot of gold the rainbow should still be savored.
For the last three seasons the Houston Texans were hopeless. The product was unenjoyably lousy, the leadership was routinely inept. As an expansion team in 2002 the Texans won four games and then won five the following season. The last three seasons produced 4-12, 4-13, and 3-13-1 clown shows. Check my math: that's 50 games played, 11 wins. The Texans were not in total tanking mode a la the Astros of the early 2010s, more than anything else they were flat wretched.
Enter C.J. Stroud.
The Texans’ return to being a legitimate NFL operation isn’t entirely about C.J. Stroud, but it is vastly more about him than any other component. Thanks Lovie Smith! The Texans take the field in Cincinnati Sunday already having posted as many victories as they mustered in any of the last three seasons. The matchup with the Bengals is one that in either of the last two seasons would have been a pretty much no chance proposition. They are unlikely to beat the Bengals, but Stroud’s presence means there is a chance. Stroud has revived a franchise’s hope and the fan base’s hope in it. Early DeShaun Watson offered much of the same before things unraveled, Watson mutinied, and did whatever else he did that in the end saw him pay millions of dollars to settle plentiful sexual misconduct lawsuits. Stroud may be the talent and character combination to lift the Texans to heights Watson could not.
Eight games into his NFL career Stroud has thrown 14 touchdown passes and just one interception. That is an incredible parlay. A 14:1 TD to INT ratio won’t hold up, unless Stroud is to equal or better the best single season ratio in NFL history. That Tom Brady fella posted it in 2016 throwing 28 touchdown passes and only two interceptions (Brady only played 12 games in 2016, missing the first four while suspended because of "Deflategate.") A number of quarterbacks have had stretches where they have thrown for 14 TDs while mixing in just one pick. To do it at the outset of one’s career is eye-popping.
The Texans are not a very good team yet, but as opposed to wallowing in mediocrity they have risen quickly to the middle of the pack. Their best window to make the leap to genuine excellence and Super Bowl contending status is the next three years. Stroud’s salary cap figure over those three years averages under 10 million dollars. Within the AFC over those same three years Joe Burrow’s cap hit averages over 40 million per season, Josh Allen’s and Lamar Jackson’s over 50 million per season, Patrick Mahomes’s over 60 million per season. There will be contract restructures with cap dollars kicked down the road, but the Texans have a huge financial roster-building advantage over the Bengals, Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs.
Unless something career-altering occurs, Stroud’s cap number will jump massively after 2026 when his megadollar extension kicks in, worth more than 50 million dollars per season. In the coming offseason the Texans sit in the top five in most salary cap space available. Stroud’s presence along with the freshness and excitement of DeMeco Ryans as head coach should be difference makers. Money always talks of course but with credibility restored and the Stroud/Ryans one-two, the Texans have something to sell beyond overpaying to land some of the better talent on the market.
The NFL is structured to enable quick turnarounds. On average over the last decade one team wins its division that finished in last place the season prior. The Bengals went from 4-11-1 in 2020 to playing in the Super Bowl the next season. During Bill O’Brien’s tenure as head coach and Reign of Error as general manager, the Texans watched all three of their division competitors reach an AFC Championship game. This is the Texans’ 22nd season. They have never gotten that far. If Nick Caserio is good at his job, Stroud is a bonafide star quarterback, and some good fortune goes their way, the Texans offer real potential of going where they have never gone before. Travel hopefully.
Looking for more Texans coverage?
Texans on Tap is the weekly Texan-centric podcast I am part of alongside Brandon Strange and Josh Jordan. On our regular schedule a first video segment goes up Monday on the SportsMapTexans YouTube channel.
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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