PLAY OR PASS?
Joel Blank: Solving the problem of how much the Rockets starters should play down the stretch
Apr 2, 2018, 5:54 am
To play, or not to play, that is the question.
Your 2017-18 Houston Rockets have boldly gone where no Rockets regular season team has ever gone before. With the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference wrapped up, they saw it upon themselves to do one better and have the best record in the entire NBA. If that wasn't enough, on an individual level, they have also made it a foregone conclusion that James Harden will be the league MVP. Teammate Clint Capela should be the Most Improved player and Mike D'Antoni has a legitimate shot at winning his second straight Coach of the Year honor.
With only five games to play in the regular season and nothing to play for, the team is faced with a catch-22. With all the injuries league wide, the smart thing to do would be to rest their starters and key rotational players to make sure that they are healthy and as close to a 100% as they can be heading into the post season. However, After to the loss to the Spurs on Sunday, Mike D'Antoni said the team needs to play everyone in the rotation in order to keep their rhythm and chemistry heading towards the playoffs. There is a pretty solid argument to be made for both sides of this dilemma.
All it takes is one look at the injury report across the NBA right now to make the case that the Rockets should rest James Harden, Chris Paul, and for that matter, every starter and rotational player in the last 5 games of the season. Jimmy Butler's injury in Houston a few weeks ago took a team that was the number 3 seed in the Western Conference and sent them reeling to the point where they are fighting to make sure that they just get in the postseason. Butler had minor knee surgery and there is no way of telling if he will be able to play in the playoffs, and even if he does, how effective he will be? Similarly, Kawhi Leonard is back in New York rehabbing his right quad injury that has kept him out of all but 9 games this season. For more than half the season, San Antonio was able to stay in the top 4 in the Western conference. However, when LaMarcus Aldridge, who has been carrying the team on his shoulders all year, started to experience knee issues .It was too much to overcome and the Spurs also are hanging on for dear life to assure themselves another appearance in the postseason.
In the Eastern conference, injuries to Kyrie Irving and John Wall have huge question marks attached to any hopes of a long playoff run in Boston or D.C.. Kevin Love just recently returned to the Cavaliers and Tristin Thompson is still out, but hopeful for a return before the end of the regular season, All of that along with the total roster overhaul at the All-Star break has made everyone in Cleveland a little uneasy as they try to ride Lebron James to an eighth straight NBA finals appearance. Without Love and Thompson, the odds will be stacked against "the King" and his court of young Cavs. So as you can see, there is a lot of evidence that lends itself to the Rockets resting Harden and CP3 in the final 5 games of the season. Doing so would assure the team that their dynamic duo would be mostly injury free come the “second season” and avoid the huge letdown of losing a key peirce at the most inopportune time.
The argument that supports coach D'Antoni's belief that the guys need to play in order to stay sharp for the playoffs is also an interesting one. Chris Paul has already missed 5 of the team's last 6 games and as good as he is, he needs to play to stay sharp and in rhythm with the rest of his teammates so that they can be as efficient as possible when it counts the most. James Harden has been struggling with his 3-point shooting lately and the coach believes it's because he has rested his star player and with that he has lost some of his rhythm in his shooting stroke. With a team that is predicated on uptempo, fast paced offense, accurate shooting from long range, efficiency on both ends of the floor and avoiding costly turnovers, it would seem as if too much rest could possibly make the Rockets rusty come playoff time. We all know that in the playoffs, everything is magnified and every mistake is that more costly. The wrong play at the wrong time could cost you a series and prevent you from playing for or winning a title, so you better be sharp as well as healthy to have a shot at winning it all.
So what's the answer? What's the recipe for success for the Rockets to remain healthy and sharp at the same time? In my opinion, the answer is two fold. I would play the starters and the key rotational players a maximum of 25 minutes a game. I would keep the rotation the same for the most part until those minutes had been achieved, and I would make sure that the starters were always on the floor with players that they will be playing with in the playoffs. This would allow the team to stay sharp and maintain chemistry with out getting burned out or over extended. Secondly, I would maximize practice time to make sure that the majority of your high intensity,full court game situations were in a controlled environment with your teammates as your competition. This will ensure that you will protect your best players and you won't fall victim to overzealous players and teams playing hyper aggressive as they fight for playoff positioning or to make a statement.
Obviously, there is no perfect scenario and you can't control everything. Injuries are going to happen and there is no way to prevent them 100%. You also can't play tentatively because that can force you to play a different way than you are used to playing, and thus, put you in compromising situations that can actually increase your chances of getting hurt. Hopefully, the Rockets staff and coaches can come up with a plan to get the players some run while making sure they don't get burned out. Regardless, it's a great problem to have, even if it is uncharted territory for Red Nation.
Each football game of a season carries much more weight than one game in a 162 Major League Baseball schedule. That reality, combined with the National Football League campaign opening and with it the most anticipated season in Texans’ history, the Astros are relegated to second banana this weekend. Just the way it goes despite the Astros’ phenomenal extended run from 10 games out of first place in mid-June to now having control of the American League West race and a likely (though definitely not yet certain) eighth consecutive year of postseason play.
It is reality that getting swept out of Cincinnati cost the Astros two games in the standings to Seattle the last two days and trimmed their division lead to four and a half games going into this weekend. There was nothing shameful about getting swept. It’s not as if they choked. They got outplayed and beaten in all three games. Stuff happens within a 162-game season. The 2019 Astros were vastly better than the 2024 Astros. The 2019 ‘Stros posted the best record in franchise history at 107-55. In Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole they had the two best pitchers in the AL. The Reds finished 75-87 in ’19. In the lone Astros-Reds series five years ago, Verlander and Cole started two of the three games. The Reds swept the Astros out of Cincy by scores of 3-2, 4-3, and 3-2. Stuff happens. The following week the Astros called up Yordan Alvarez. There is no Yordan coming to fortify the offense now, but wait! Is that Kyle Tucker's music?
The Astros host the NL champs this weekend
It’s highly unlikely but it’s still a possible World Series preview at Minute Maid Park this weekend with the Astros home for three games versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. The reigning National League Champions woke up under .500 July 11, but since then have been sizzling with 33 wins against just 15 losses. Over the same time frame the Astros are 27-21. The Diamondbacks by a large margin have scored the most runs in MLB this season, and that’s while playing the last nearly three weeks without Ketel Marte because of a high ankle sprain. Marte has been far and away the best second baseman in the game this year. He may return this weekend in a designated hitter role. The Arizona offense overall has been sensational, however it has vulnerability against left-handed pitching, in significant part because it typically takes lefty-hitting platoon beast Joc Pederson out of the lineup. The D’Backs are 55-35 in games facing right-handed starters, just 24-27 in games started by opposing southpaws. The Astros have lefties Framber Valdez and Yusei Kikuchi set to go in the first two games this weekend. While the Astros deal with the Diamondbacks the Mariners are in St. Louis for three against the Cardinals.
Eleven Diamondbacks have had at least 200 plate appearances this season. Only one of them has an OPS below .725. The Astros also have 11 guys with at least 200 PAs. Five of them lug around sub-.715 OPSes: Jeremy Pena (.714), Jake Meyers (.664), Mauricio Dubon (.645), Jon Singleton (.697), and Chas McCormick (.566).
Maximizing Tucker's return
Speaking of returns, Tucker fiiiiiiinally should see action for the first time since his June 3 bone bruise. Oh wait, broken leg. Shame on the Astros for their BSing over this and other injuries. Yeah, Alex Bregman slept funny. Whatever. To boost the lineup Tucker doesn’t have to be the .979 OPS MVP candidate he was when felled. Ben Gamel has done some good work, but over time he’s Ben Gamel. Same for Jason Heyward. If Tucker's legs are under him his power is a B-12 shot and only Yordan is in his league in on-base percentage. Joe Espada has decisions to make as to how slot the batting order. Against a right-handed starter Jose Altuve, Tucker, Alvarez, Yainer Diaz, Bregman one through five makes sense with Tucker dropping down below Yainer against a left-handed starter. No question those are the top five in some order. How much of a workload Tucker is ready for bears watching. Presumably he doesn’t initially play the outfield day in day out. When Tucker DHs obviously Bregman (and Yordan) can’t so Alex’s ailing elbow holding up is key. One might say hopefully the bone chips don’t fall where they may. Tuesday the Astros start a stretch playing 16 days in a row.
Keep hope alive!
If you’re an Astros fan holding out hope of chasing down the second seed to avoid having to play the best-of-three Wild Card series, say it with me, whatever nausea it may induce: “Go Dodgers Go!” Hurt as it might, business is business. The Dodgers play host to the Guardians. The Astros trail Cleveland by five games with just 22 to play, but do finish the regular season with three games at Cleveland. It's pretty much over for the Astros to catch both the Orioles and Yankees.
Season-long trends mean nothing once the playoffs start, and that’s a good thing for the Astros provided they are in the playoffs. They continue to flat out stink in close games. Thursday’s 1-0 loss to the Reds has the Astros record in one-run games at 15-24. In two-run games they are 10-14. Correlatively, the Astros also continue to routinely fail late in close games. The Astros have played 14 games that were tied after seven innings. They have lost 11 of the 14. In games tied after eight innings they are 7-13. Every team loses an extremely high percentage of games when trailing after eight innings, but the Astros haven’t pulled out a single game they’ve trailed going to the ninth. 0-50. Oh and fifty. But hey, the White Sox are 0-92!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.