FALCON POINTS

These 5 teams of interest in Houston have the most to prove in the new year

Composite photo by Brandon Strange

As the calendar turns on a new year and new decade, the sports scene in Houston has not changed all that much. The Astros are going to be contenders again (and accused of cheating again), the Rockets will continue to tweak to try to take the ultimate step, and the Texans will be hard to get behind as long as Bill O'Brien prowls the sidelines. Still, when it comes to the local pro and college ranks, these five programs/franchises will have the most to prove in the new year:


1) Can the Texans rise above mediocrity?

They get their first chance Saturday against the Bills. While just winning A playoff game should not be the goal, considering the Texans past postseason appearances under O'Brien, a loss would render the season a major disappointment and call into question the entire operation (again). And make no mistake, the Texans can lose this game. A second-round setback against a better team would not really be a success, either, but it would be an improvement. Getting to an AFC Championship Game should be the minimum goal. Does anyone really believe that can happen? The window is now for the Texans, and a playoff run this season or massive improvement next year might silence some critics. Of all the teams on this list, they have the most to prove.

2) The big state schools

The Texans Longhorns did not proclaim themselves back after winning the Alamo Bowl, which is smart. They did follow up a 10 win season with an 8-win one, and eight should be the floor there. The Longhorns should be serious contenders for the Big 12 title and a playoff berth at worst in 2020. It's time to find out if Tom Herman is the right man to get it done.

In College Station, the Aggies went all in on Jimbo Fisher, and the results have been, like the commercial says, just OK. Fisher has gone 9-4 and 8-5, and this past season they lost to every good team on their schedule. They did play perhaps the toughest slate in the nation, but at some point, Fisher is supposed to win some of those games. It needs to happen this year.

3) Harden and the Rockets

The Rockets more than any other team in Houston keep pushing their chips in the middle and trying new things. The addition of Russell Westbrook is still a work in progress, although the team has shown some signs of life. The Rockets have at least been to a couple Western Conference Finals in the Harden era, but the franchise makes no bones about its goal of winning a title. They still look to be a little short of teams like the Lakers, Clippers and Bucks in the title hierarchy, but they aren't done tweaking, either. Mike D'Antoni's job remains in flux. This latest all-in move has to pay off.

4) UH's bizarre, bold move

When Dana Holgorsen took over UH's football team, expectations were high. But it did not take long to figure out the cupboard had been left awfully bare by Major Applewhite and his staff. So Holgorsen basically punted on the season after the Tulane loss, red shirting some key seniors and limping to a 4-8 record. Star quarterback D'Eriq King was one of those players. If King stays and is joined by a bevy of high quality transfers, the Cougars could be right back in the AAC race next season. If he leaves and the strategy backfires? Holgorsen's job is safe, but this year's moves will be defined by next season.

5) Does a controversial off-season derail the Astros?

The dumb sign stealing saga has dominated the off-season, along with the loss of Gerrit Cole to the Yankees, which makes New York the likely AL favorites. The Astros have not made any significant additions, and do not appear to be poised to do so, suddenly concerned about a bloated payroll. The off-field messes, from the sign saga to the former assistant GM saga to the forcing the Ryans out saga...To the on field: A.J. Hunch's bizarre handling of his pitching staff in the Game 7 Series loss. The Astros will have their lineup intact for another year, but the starting pitching - so strong last season - is a big bunch of question marks. While the off-field stuff should not impact things on the field too much, who knows? The Rangers and Angels will be better. The Astros are still the class of the AL West, but did their title window close? Probably not, but there will be real questions in 2020.

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The Astros face the Mets this Saturday! Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images.

The next major sign post on the road to the Astros’ regular season arrives Saturday with the spring training opener. If predicting the 2023 World Series matchup you could do a lot worse than casting your lot with an Astros-Mets Fall Classic. The Astros will meet the Mets in a decidedly lesser matchup Saturday at The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches. As fun as it might be to have just-turned-40 years old Justin Verlander throw his first pitch as a Met against the Astros, he won’t be making the bus trip south. In fact, the minimum number of legit Mets required to be in West Palm Beach figure to be on hand since the Mets are splitting their squad for the day with more notables certainly staying in Port St. Lucie for their home preseason opener.

So no Verlander mound sighting Saturday at the Astros game. Of much more significance, no Lance McCullers Jr. sighting on the mound at an Astros game for some time to come. This is not a surprise given Lance’s injury plagued career, but it’s still a bummer. Unless you’re Hunter Brown that is, since Brown now has a clear runway to fly in the Astros’ starting rotation out of the gate. McCullers is in season two of the five year 85 million dollar contract extension he signed in March 2021 that kicked in last season. Simple math tells you that’s 17 million dollars per season. Last season he made eight starts. They are calling it a mild elbow muscle strain, but the Astros have been publicly overly optimistic re: injuries in the past. We shall see. If McCullers can be healthy to join the rotation by May 1 that would be fine. He’s obviously just not built to be a durable workhorse. Only once in his career has McCullers answered the bell for more than 22 starts in a season (2021), only once has he thrown 130 innings in a season (also 2021). And that workload wrecked the majority of his 2022.

Hunter Brown flashed phenomenally in his first taste of the big leagues. Albeit over just 20 1/3 innings, a 0.89 earned run average seems decent. The simplest factor that will determine Brown’s ceiling is his ability to throw strikes. His stuff is unquestioned, but walking 45 batters in 106 innings (his numbers at AAA Sugar Land last year) is a tough ratio with which to be elite. There’s a good chance you saw the side-by-side clip in which Brown’s windup looked like a carbon copy of Justin Verlander’s.

There is a virtual zero chance Brown becomes Verlander. Brown has never shown the command of Verlander which has helped JV ascend near the level of Roger Clemens and Tom Seaver, two of the greatest power/control pitchers ever. Still, even if Brown peaks as a mid-rotation starter, the Astros have tremendous multi-year value with Brown ineligible for salary arbitration until the 2026 season.

Hunter Brown is 24 years old. When Verlander was 24 he went 18-6 for the Tigers and made his first All-Star team. In Clemens’s 24-year-old season, he won 20 games and his second consecutive Cy Young Award. When Seaver was 24 he won 25 games and led the Miracle Mets to the 1969 World Series title.

Slim and trim

Good to hear Martin Maldonado dropped about 15 pounds in the offseason. He won’t be stealing bases or legging out many infield hits, but if it helps him be a little more mobile behind the plate, that’s a good thing. Maldonado led the Major Leagues in passed balls last season. Along with age and playing through a hernia that was surgically repaired in the offseason, carrying extra weight didn’t make Maldy’s job any easier. In what is likely not entirely a coincidence re: the weight loss, Maldonado is in the last year of his contract. He turns 37 in August. If there is more juice to be squeezed from his career beyond 2023, being in better shape can only aid the cause.

Bad to hear Yordan Alvarez’s left hand is bothering him some, though it seems much more minor than McCullers's situation. The Cuban Missile Launcher had an issue with each hand during the course of last season.

Can't get enough Astros coverage?

Stone Cold ‘Stros is the weekly Astro-centric podcast I am part of alongside Brandon Strange and Josh Jordan. On our regular schedule it airs live at 3PM Monday on the SportsMapHouston YouTube channel, is available there for playback at any point, and also becomes available in podcast form at outlets galore. Such as:

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