Photo Credit: Jermaine Every
Don't you hate it when people try to tell you how you should feel? Or how about when they try telling you what they think you should be doing? Unsolicited opinions are the new wave of social media these days. Hop on Twitter, Facebook, or any social media platform, and you'll see/hear all kinds of them.
Last week, there was a a bit of a kerfuffle on social media here in Houston. Some members of the local sports media (John Lopez and Landry Locker) made statements questioning the fandom of Rockets fans. They are under the unfortunate impression that if you watched the season premiere of Game of Thrones instead of watching the beginning of the Rockets opening playoff game, you're not a real fan and I couldn't disagree more.
"You're not a real fan" guy is a dumbass! That statement is usually followed by something extremely stupid, highly regrettable, and will often be very hot take worthy. Telling someone how to be a "real fan" or questioning their fandom on the basis of them choosing to watch something else because they'll miss the beginning of an opening round playoff game might be peak dumbassery. Don't get me wrong. There are times when telling someone they're not a real fan is absolutely necessary.
For example: I'm a lifelong Saints fan. When the Falcons made it to the Super Bowl and were set to face the Patriots, I wanted to vomit. Most people hate the Patriots because they're a dynasty. Others hate them because of the various scandals accusing them, or being found guilty, of cheating. My son said he was rooting for the Falcons and I lost my mind! No self-respecting Saints fan would ever under any circumstance root for the hated Falcons! That's like a Texans fan rooting for the Titans, or a Longhorn fan rooting for the Sooners! My wife told me I was being unreasonable, but my son understood where I was coming from. I had to educate him as to why it was like cursing in church to root for the Falcons.
Outside of rooting for your team's hated rival, there aren't many situations that your fandom can be called into question. When people openly root for their team to lose games for the sake of better draft position, they aren't violating any fan code of conduct. This happens often when a team is so bad, the fan would rather see them lose now in order to draft a player that could help them win in the future. Some would disagree with me here and that's okay. But when leagues find a better way to avoid tanking, this behavior will forever be a part of fan culture (side note: the NBA now gives the three worst teams an equal shot at winning the draft lottery, while the NFL and MLB continue to reward that top slot based off record continuing to prove why the NBA is constantly ahead of the curve).
Another form of potentially questionable fandom is wishing for the firing or trade of a team's coach, front office staff, and players. Fans will often get frustrated with how things are going and demand change. If a general manager sucks at player acquisition, or a coach can't get the most out of his players, or a player isn't living up to potential or a lofty contract, fans will call for their heads. This too is born of frustration, and isn't a knock against fandom. If anything, it shows a higher level of passion than casual fans exhibit.
When I saw there was going to be a conflict between the Rockets and Game of Thrones, I scoffed at the notion of choosing which one to look at live. I'm fortunate enough to have two TVs in my room (pictured above), so I was able to watch both. I often do this because there's too much to watch sometimes, I'm playing my PS4 while something is on, or I'm simply feeding my ADD. The Rockets TV was on mute because I can follow a game without the sound, and because Game of Thrones was my priority. Lots of people DVR'd the game or picked it up after switching over. None of this makes you less of a fan. In fact, I question the person who calls out the fan for how they show their support more than the fan themselves.
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!