Every-Thing Sports
Are the Texans lucky the Colts are out of Luck?
Aug 24, 2019, 10:10 pm
Jonathan Ferrey
The news came out of nowhere. It was like one of those crack back blocks on an interception return. That defensive tackle has been getting shut out all game long. He hasn't been able to stop the run or push the pocket. The quarterback has been teasing him all game long and talking mad trash. And then it happened. He finally got some pressure, forced an interception, now he's looking to through a block. Soon as he turns around...WHAM! He lays the quarterback out with as vicious of a legal hit he can.
That's the best way I can describe Colt's quarterback Andrew Luck's abrupt retirement. I was taking a shower and shaving my head. I heard my phone buzz a few times and saw my good friend Joe Hutchinson texted me twice. I quickly did a search and saw the news had just come out and was confirmed by several reliable sites within the minutes of me looking it up. My initial thought: Texans fans are about to hit the roof with excitement. But should they? How does Luck's sudden retirement effect the chances the Texans have in winning the division this year? What are some obstacles they'll face?
History of mediocrity
"We went 9-7 and won the AFC South two years in a row." Bill O'Brien's statement is the epitome of them being mediocre. This organization has been satisfied with average since its inception. Their obsession with the Patriots is akin to a little brother who's not happy with his C average level of work constantly trying to replicate big brother's A average work and always falling short. Way short. With Luck out of the way, this should open the doors to the car and hand the keys to the Texans. But can they drive the car?
Watch out for the rest of the division
The Jags finally have a capable quarterback. The Titans are in year two of the Vrabel era. The Colts still have a ton of talent. If the Texans don't win the division this year, it won't surprise me. If they miss the playoffs, that will throw me off. Two wins a year was gifted to them if they take advantage. T.Y. Hilton can't kill them because Jacoby Brissett can't get him the ball like Luck did. The Jags are still a team that went 5-11 last season. The Titans still have Marcus Mariota under center and they're not sure if he's their franchise quarterback. The division just became that much more winnable.
O'Brien's ego
Another obstacle in taking advantage of Luck's departure is O'Brien's ego. When I spoke on this a few weeks ago, it seemed to resonate with a lot of you. You guys seem to feel the same way I do. His ego is bigger than the Toyota Center, NRG, and The Juice Box put together. If O'Brien can't contain himself and learn to not be this franchise's worst enemy, this team will be able to fulfill its potential. If O'Brien continues with status quo, well, you already read about the history of mediocrity earlier.
Overconfidence
Teams with as many deficiencies as this Texans squad should never feel overconfident. But when your biggest rival loses its franchise quarterback, it can inflate your sense of self-worth. Teams can often feel as if they were anointed and preordained to their destiny as division champs. This can lead to taking things for granted, taking opponents lightly, and losing focus. If they take those keys, get that car, start to drive, and get distracted, they'll eventually crash and burn. Being arrogant without putting in the work everyday, taking things serious, and focusing in on the task at hand will cause them to fall hard.
Pressure
I was told long ago that pressure can bust pipes or make diamonds. The end result is up to you. The Texans have a golden opportunity to make some beautiful diamonds, but they can't succumb to the pressure. Giving in to the pressure and busting like one of those pipes could prove to be a fatal blow. O'Brien and several others would be held responsible and fired or released. A total rehaul of the coaching and front office staff would be necessary in my opinion. Considering there's no general manager, that new hire would be charged with bringing this team to prominence. With the amount of talent already here, and the cap space, he wouldn't have much grace in doing so. The pressure is enormous, but it shouldn't be crippling. It should fuel the fire.
I'm always fair and objective in my assessments. I even posted a pic of how I feel Texans fans are feeling upon hearing the news. I truly hope this is the stroke of luck the fanbase needs (#DadJoke). These fans have been so hungry for football, and a winner, that there are roughly 32,000 people on the waiting list for season tickets! Another good friend of mine put his name on the list in 2011 and just got a call to purchase them a few weeks ago! This city, more specifically this fanbase, deserves a consistent winner for the way they support this team. But if the powers that be don't take advantage of the opportunity given to them, I'd hate to see the backlash. Luck equals opportunity plus preparation. Let's hope the Texans are prepared for this opportunity and get lucky.
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All-Star balloting opened up this week for what used to be known as the Midsummer Classic in Major League Baseball. I guess some still refer to it as such but the All-Star Game has been largely a bore for many years, though the honor of being selected on merit remains a big one. As always, fans can vote at all positions except pitcher. The fan balloting has resulted in mostly good selections for years now, though pretty much all teams still do silly marketing stuff trying to drum up support for their players. The Astros’ part in that silliness is their campaign to make it the “All-’Stros” game on the American League squad in Atlanta next month. It’s one thing to be supportive of your team, it’s another to be flat out ridiculous if voting right now for Yainer Diaz, Christian Walker, Yordan Alvarez, Mauricio Dubon, or Cam Smith. The Astros tried to game the system in submitting Jose Altuve as a second baseman where the competition is weaker than it is in the outfield, but given Altuve has played only about 25 percent of the games at second base this season he should not be an All-Star second baseman selectee for what would be the tenth time in his career.
Isaac Paredes’s recent freefall notwithstanding, he has a legitimate case as a backup third baseman, especially with Alex Bregman likely missing more than a month of games due to his quad injury. Jake Meyers is having a fine season but is obviously not an All-Star-worthy outfielder unless he is sensational for the rest of June. That leaves Jeremy Peña, who is simply the best shortstop in the big leagues so far this season. To be clear, no team in baseball (including the Astros) would rather have Peña going forward than the Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr., but we’re talking about the here and now. There are another 100 games to be played, but Peña not only is about a lock to deserve his first All-Star nod, but he is in contention to put in the books the greatest season ever by an Astro shortstop.
Over his first three seasons, Peña was a consistently mediocre offensive player. His highest batting average was .266, best on-base percentage .324, top slugging percentage .426. He is blowing away all those numbers thus far in 2025. While unlikely to come close to reaching his preseason goal of 50 stolen bases, Peña is swiping bags at the best success rate of his career. Add in Peña’s stellar defense and that he has played in every Astros’ game so far this season, and Peña has been irrefutably one of the 10 best and most valuable players in the American League. You could certainly argue as high as top three.
If Peña's productivity holds up for the rest of the season there are only three other seasons posted by Astro shortstops that are in the same league as what would be Peña’s 2025. Carlos Correa has two of them. Lack of durability may be the biggest reason Correa is not tracking to be a Hall of Famer. In only two seasons as an Astro did Correa play in more than 136 games. He was fabulous in each of them. 2021 was his peak campaign, playing in 148 games while compiling an .850 OPS, winning a Gold Glove, and finishing fifth in AL MVP voting. Correa’s Baseball-Reference wins above replacement number for 2021 was 7.3. Peña is at 3.6 with nearly 20 games still left before the midway point of the schedule.
For the other great Astro shortstop season you have to go back to 1983. Dickie Thon turned 25 years old in June of ‘83. He put up a .798 OPS, which gains in stature given Thon played his home games in the Astrodome when the Dome was at its most pitching-friendly. Thon won the Silver Slugger Award as the best offensive shortstop in the National League, and played superior defense. His Baseball-Reference WAR number was 7.4. He finished seventh for NL MVP playing for an 85-77 Astros’ squad that finished third in the NL West. Dickie Thon looked like an emerging superstar. Then, in the fifth game of the 1984 season, a fastball from Mets’ pitcher Mike Torrez hit Thon in the left eye, fracturing his orbital bone. Thon missed the rest of the ‘84 season. While Thon played in nine more big league seasons, his vision never fully recovered and he was never the same player. It’s one of the biggest “What if...” questions in Astros’ history.
Arms race
Players and the Commissioner’s Office pick the All-Star pitching staffs. Unless he suddenly starts getting lit up regularly, Hunter Brown can pack a bag for Georgia. Framber Valdez wouldn’t make it now but has surged into contention. Josh Hader’s first half is going vastly better than last year’s, so he is in line for a reliever spot.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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