THE PALLILOG
Charlie Pallilo: Easy street for the Texans, Rockets heading for the next round, big early baseball series
Apr 20, 2018, 6:50 am
The Texans and Bill O'Brien have a tough start but the schedule is manageable. Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images
I mean, seriously, who in the heck would sit and watch two hours of the NFL schedule release show Thursday night? Better alternatives: NBA playoffs, NHL playoffs, baseball, The Big Bang Theory (still on, yes?) or most anything else. Post it online and let’s go. And so we learned that the Texans open their 2018 season at New England. Should be good to get “can they go 16-0?” talk out of the way and focus on 15-1. I mean for the Patriots. Of course the Texans can go 16-0. Wait, make that they can go 10-6. A silver lining of last season’s total collapse was getting a last place team’s schedule. The advantage of that was greater back in the days when there were four strength of schedule games on the slate as opposed to the current two, but it’s still an edge pointing to 2018. The Texans play the last place Browns and Broncos while the defending AFC South champion Jaguars draw the Steelers and Chiefs. The Texans will do well to avoid an 0-2 start with at Tennessee following at New England. After that, on paper the Texans have the easiest schedule in the NFL.
Inevitable conclusion
As expected, so far so good for the Rockets’ postseason. They were shaky in game one against Minnesota but won on the back of James Harden’s awesome 44 point performance. They needed all of it to win by three with all other Rockets combining to shoot a frigid 12 percent from behind the 3-point line. Any false hope the Timberwolves may have drawn by losing close was snuffed in the Rockets’ Game 2 20 point rout. If the players got bonuses for every point above 20 in their margin of victory the Rockets could have won game two by 35 or 40, and done so on a night where Harden made two of 18 shots from the floor.
Maybe the Timberwolves manage one win in Minneapolis, but the Rockets should be very well rested for their second round matchup vs. the Thunder-Jazz winner. Additionally, if Luc Mbah a Moute’s dislocated shoulder heals well they could be the healthiest they’ve been in months. Provided the Pelicans close out the Trailblazers, perhaps Anthony Davis can help New Orleans give Golden State a series if Stephen Curry isn’t back, or effective. But it sure looks like the anticipated Rockets-Warriors Western Conference Final is coming.
Big early series?
There is no such thing as a huge baseball series in April. But that doesn’t mean Astros-Angels Monday through Wednesday at Minute Maid Park can’t be hugely fun. A.J. Hinch didn’t specifically plan it this way but his starting pitchers line up as Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton, and Justin Verlander. After four starts apiece Verlander’s 1.35 ERA made him the slacker of the three, which is absolutely nuts. Morton is at 0.72, Cole at 0.96.
Heading into the season the Angels looked to be the most improved team in the American League West, and they played the part in roaring out of the chute to a 13-3 start. Will the Halos have the staying power to hang with the Astros through the summer? I doubt it, but they will hit town with serious star power. Mike Trout is the best baseball player on the planet, as he routinely has been since his rookie season in 2012. Trout’s career path to date rates very well vs. Willie Mays’. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons may be the best defensive player in the game. Evaluating defensive performance has come a long way but still lags well behind evaluating offense. Nevertheless, Simmons’s advanced defensive stats suggest that he plays shortstop better than did the generally acknowledged best ever, Ozzie Smith. Albert Pujols is a shell of the player who was the best first baseman in National League history, but is within single digits of becoming the 32nd big leaguer to reach 3000 hits. If he happens to reach 3K here I hope and expect the MMP crowd to be smarter than to boo him.
And then there’s Shohei Ohtani, the 23 year old Japanese sensation pitcher/designated hitter. After he stunk in both roles at spring training some wondered whether Ohtani might be best served by starting the season in the minors. Um, no. Already this season Ohtani has homered in three consecutive games, and on the mound carried a perfect game into the seventh inning. He had a blister problem in his last start, but is expected to pitch one of the games against the Astros. Houston’s population of Japanese descent is small, so Ohtani fans won’t be taking over the ballpark.
Buzzer beaters
1. By NHL standards the 1st round of the playoffs has been a dud. 2. The reigning MLS champ is in town this weekend. Any clue which team is the reigning MLS champ? 3. Best diet sodas: Bronze-Dr. Pepper Silver-Coke Zero Gold-Fresca
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How Astros advanced metrics tell puzzling story about Houston's start
Apr 17, 2025, 5:21 pm
Major League Baseball’s regular season is 162 games long. You can think of 18 games as the first inning of the season, 18 times nine equaling 162. While the Astros 8-10 record is not good, it’s far from disastrous. Think of it as them being behind 1-0 after the first inning. It is pretty remarkable that they have yet to win consecutive games. Even during last year’s 7-19 stink bomb of a start the Astros twice managed to win two in a row.
The Astros’ offensive woes are plentiful. Oddly enough as impotent as they’ve been, the Astros have yet to be shutout. But in half their games they have scored exactly one or two runs. Basically, most of them stink thus far. Exemptions go to Jose Altuve and Isaac Paredes, but it’s not like either of them has been outstanding. It’s still early enough that one big series can dramatically alter the numbers, but the Astros badly need Yordan Alvarez to pick up his production. Yordan enters the weekend batting just .224 with a .695 OPS and just four extra base hits. Yainer rhymes with minor. As in minor leagues, where Diaz belongs at his current level of performance. That is not saying Diaz should be sent down, just that any random AAA catcher called up couldn’t have done much worse to this point. Diaz isn’t hitting Altuve’s weight, a woeful .130 with seven hits in 57 at bats. Diaz simply remains too undisciplined at the plate swinging at too many balls. He’s drawn three walks. And now to Christian Walker, who thus far has delivered return on investment for his three year 60 million dollar contract about as strong as the stock market’s performance in Tariff Time. Walker’s .154 batting average and .482 OPS are very Astro Jose Abreu-like. Walker’s23 strikeouts in 65 at bats jump off the page. In the batter’s box he has often looked befuddled. Walker is definitely pressing and frustrated, wanting to perform better for his new team. Jeremy Pena goes into the weekend batting .215 and has one hit in 13 at bats with runners in scoring position. Brendan Rodgers, Jake Meyers, and Chas McCormick all have weak stat lines, with little reason to expect quality offensive output from any of them. Cam Smith is at .200 with a yucky .591 OPS but he’s obviously a young stud work in progress thrown into the deep end of the pool.
All batting orders are top-heavy, the Astros’ on paper more so than many. As I set forth on one of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts this week, the first inning should be a team’s best offensive inning. It’s the only frame in which a team gets to dictate who comes up from the start with the batters lined up just as the manager slots them. Add to that, the first inning is a good time to get to a starting pitcher before he settles in. The Astros have scored a pitiful three first inning runs in 18 games, and in two of the games they pushed one across in the first, it turned out to be the only Astro run of the game. Improvement needs to come internally from the big league roster. It’s not as if the Astros have a meaningful prospect at AAA Sugar Land who looks ready to help. Entering play Thursday the Space Cowboys’ team average was .186. Second base hopeful Brice Matthews is nowhere close, batting .180 and striking out left and right. Outfielder Jacob Melton opened three for 17 following the back injury-delayed start to his season.
As exasperating and boring as the offense has been for so many, grading needs to occur on a curve. So, while the Astros’ team batting average is a joke at .216, know that at close of business Wednesday the entire American League was batting just .232. The American League West-leading Texas Rangers scored eight fewer runs over their first 18 games than did the Astros, though that is skewed by the Astros’ one 14-run outburst against the Angels.
Familiar faces return
This weekend the Astros play host to the San Diego Padres at Daikin Park. The Friars are off to a fabulous start at 15-4. The Padres being here creates a mini reunion as both Martin Maldonado and Yuli Gurriel are on their roster. In a telling fact, Maldonado would have the third-highest batting average on the Astros if on the team with his current numbers. Maldonado is hitting .250 with seven hits in 28 at bats. The last season he finished above .200 was 2020. The only season in his career Maldonado topped .234 was his rookie season with a .266 mark in 2012.
Gurriel was last good in 2021 when he won the American League batting title at .319. He fell off a cliff from there, though perked up to have a fine postseason in the Astros’ 2022 run to World Series title number two. “La Pina” is batting .115 with just three hits in 26 at bats. Gurriel may be released soon, and approaching his 41st birthday June 9, that would probably be the end of the line. Short-timer Astro Jason Heyward is also on the Padres, and batting .190.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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