PLAYING THE PONIES
Sam Houston Race Park selections for Friday, March 6
Mar 6, 2020, 6:40 am
Coady photography
Here are my selections for Friday night at Sam Houston Race Park. These are not meant to be in exact order, but merely the four horses I think have the best chance to win. For beginners, I suggest exacta boxes with three horses, using two of mine and one of your own. And you can always pick up a copy of Acing Racing 2016 to learn everything you need to know. (These are the picks and format that are available on the free tip sheet at SHRP).
FIRST
4-1-2-3
MEN OF KYLE has been off since September but will be in the mix if ready
SECOND
1-6-4-7
TELL ME U LOVE ME gets back in with maidens off a nice stakes effort
THIRD
10-1-3-7
MISTER STRANGE was no match for winner in last but catches an easier group
FOURTH
5-1-3-8
RAMBLIN FEVER was only beaten a length against slightly tougher last out
FIFTH
8-9-1-4
CHAMPAGNE'S ON ICE was not bad in meet debut; barn winning at a nice clip
SIXTH
3-2-8-6
PROSPECTOR FEVER has been tough this meet at this level
SEVENTH
5-1-2-6
MADISON'S WILD ONE lost the race at the start in last; prior was impressive
EIGHTH
1-3-6-5
EXCITING is very tough at this trip if the race stays on the grass
NINTH
5-7-2-1
SUNDANCE SEVEN might pop on the turn back in distance
TENTH
9-6-4-3
ON TILT should be a nice fit in this group shipping in from Oaklawn
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The Houston Astros are coming off a terrific home stand, taking a series from the Padres, followed by a sweep of the Blue Jays. The bats came alive, and the pitching has continued to be impressive. But here's the big question; is this sustainable?
Houston's overall numbers this season closely mirror last year’s performance, which is a great sign. In 2024, they finished top 6 in ERA and ranked 4th in batting average against. Fast-forward to 2025, and they’re first in WHIP and rank among the top five in nearly every major pitching category. This consistency suggests their success is not some early-season anomaly, but the result of a proven, repeatable formula.
Ryan Gusto has quietly become one of the more intriguing arms in the rotation. He leads the team with a 61% zone percentage, and while you might expect that to come with a lot of loud contact, that hasn’t exactly been the case. His zone contact percentage is actually better than you’d expect for someone filling the zone that much, and among current starters, only Hunter Brown is better. That’s a great sign for Gusto’s long-term viability and a testament to the quality of strikes he’s throwing—not just the quantity.
On the offensive side, there’s a bit more nuance. Optimistically, the Astros are one of just five AL teams with a positive run differential, currently sitting at +11. That’s often a good indicator of underlying team strength, especially this early in the season. Jeremy Peña is riding a 14-game hitting streak and has shown a 10% increase in hard-hit rate, according to the Astros broadcast. While his traditional numbers like batting average and slugging are slightly down from last year, his on-base percentage, OPS, and OPS+ are all up. That points to better at-bats and more mature plate appearances—even if the results aren’t always explosive.
The Astros are also experimenting with some interesting lineup flexibility. Cam Smith taking reps in center field could open the door for Zach Dezenzo to slide into right, potentially pushing a rotation with Jake Meyers in center. While Dezenzo doesn’t appear to be an option at second base, where Mauricio Dubón has struggled and Brendan Rodgers has underwhelmed, the added flexibility in the outfield is still a valuable tool for manager Joe Espada.
Signs of improvement or concern?
Christian Walker now has a higher slugging percentage than Yordan Alvarez—.345 to .338—which is unexpected, especially considering Walker's early season struggles. However, it's also a reminder that a few good at-bats can massively impact the numbers this early in the season.
The team as a whole is middle-of-the-pack in batting average (15th) but ranks 24th in slugging (last in the AL West) and 23rd in OPS. Only the Texas Rangers have been worse in OPS among division rivals.
Jose Altuve, meanwhile, has been a mixed bag. Watching him at the plate, especially in two-strike counts, has been tough. On 2-2 counts, he’s hitting just .154 with a .297 OPS, and he’s struck out in 7 of 14 plate appearances in that scenario. It’s gotten to the point where you almost expect a chase on anything off the plate. The encouraging sign, though, is his rebound on full counts—he’s posted a whopping .930 OPS in 3-2 situations, suggesting he’s not completely lost at the plate but may be pressing in earlier two-strike counts.
Perhaps the most glaring issue has been the team’s production with the bases loaded. It’s been downright dreadful. Through 31 plate appearances, they’ve managed only three hits—good for a .111 average. It’s a small sample size, but still significant enough to highlight the Astros’ situational hitting struggles.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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