How Astros turnaround is spurring more creative solutions from Houston's think tank
PUSHING THE ENVELOPE
24 April
PUSHING THE ENVELOPE
The Houston Astros are coming off a terrific home stand, taking a series from the Padres, followed by a sweep of the Blue Jays. The bats came alive, and the pitching has continued to be impressive. But here's the big question; is this sustainable?
Houston's overall numbers this season closely mirror last year’s performance, which is a great sign. In 2024, they finished top 6 in ERA and ranked 4th in batting average against. Fast-forward to 2025, and they’re first in WHIP and rank among the top five in nearly every major pitching category. This consistency suggests their success is not some early-season anomaly, but the result of a proven, repeatable formula.
Ryan Gusto has quietly become one of the more intriguing arms in the rotation. He leads the team with a 61% zone percentage, and while you might expect that to come with a lot of loud contact, that hasn’t exactly been the case. His zone contact percentage is actually better than you’d expect for someone filling the zone that much, and among current starters, only Hunter Brown is better. That’s a great sign for Gusto’s long-term viability and a testament to the quality of strikes he’s throwing—not just the quantity.
On the offensive side, there’s a bit more nuance. Optimistically, the Astros are one of just five AL teams with a positive run differential, currently sitting at +11. That’s often a good indicator of underlying team strength, especially this early in the season. Jeremy Peña is riding a 14-game hitting streak and has shown a 10% increase in hard-hit rate, according to the Astros broadcast. While his traditional numbers like batting average and slugging are slightly down from last year, his on-base percentage, OPS, and OPS+ are all up. That points to better at-bats and more mature plate appearances—even if the results aren’t always explosive.
The Astros are also experimenting with some interesting lineup flexibility. Cam Smith taking reps in center field could open the door for Zach Dezenzo to slide into right, potentially pushing a rotation with Jake Meyers in center. While Dezenzo doesn’t appear to be an option at second base, where Mauricio Dubón has struggled and Brendan Rodgers has underwhelmed, the added flexibility in the outfield is still a valuable tool for manager Joe Espada.
Signs of improvement or concern?
Christian Walker now has a higher slugging percentage than Yordan Alvarez—.345 to .338—which is unexpected, especially considering Walker's early season struggles. However, it's also a reminder that a few good at-bats can massively impact the numbers this early in the season.
The team as a whole is middle-of-the-pack in batting average (15th) but ranks 24th in slugging (last in the AL West) and 23rd in OPS. Only the Texas Rangers have been worse in OPS among division rivals.
Jose Altuve, meanwhile, has been a mixed bag. Watching him at the plate, especially in two-strike counts, has been tough. On 2-2 counts, he’s hitting just .154 with a .297 OPS, and he’s struck out in 7 of 14 plate appearances in that scenario. It’s gotten to the point where you almost expect a chase on anything off the plate. The encouraging sign, though, is his rebound on full counts—he’s posted a whopping .930 OPS in 3-2 situations, suggesting he’s not completely lost at the plate but may be pressing in earlier two-strike counts.
Perhaps the most glaring issue has been the team’s production with the bases loaded. It’s been downright dreadful. Through 31 plate appearances, they’ve managed only three hits—good for a .111 average. It’s a small sample size, but still significant enough to highlight the Astros’ situational hitting struggles.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
*ChatGPT assisted.
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Jose Altuve hit a go-ahead two-run single in the sixth inning to move into second place on Houston's career hits list and the Astros beat the Colorado Rockies 5-3 on Wednesday night to win their 12th straight series.
Jose Altuve DRVIES IN 2 ... and passes Jeff Bagwell for 2nd in career hits with the @astros#BuiltForThis pic.twitter.com/IcLVdy5iOn
— Space City Home Network (@SpaceCityHN) July 3, 2025
Altuve went 2 for 5 and gave the Astros a 4-2 lead with his 2,315th career hit, moving him past Jeff Bagwell. Craig Biggio leads the franchise with 3,060 career hits.
Altuve spoke about his relationship with Bagwell, and more after the game.
Jose Altuve got a congratulatory text message postgame from Jeff Bagwell after passing him on the Astros’ all-time hits list. pic.twitter.com/KtKk28SZEt
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) July 3, 2025
Hunter Brown (9-3) allowed two runs on six hits in six innings. He struck out eight to join Lance McCullers Jr. as the only Astros pitchers to reach 500 in their first 86 appearances.
Bennett Sousa pitched the ninth for his third save.
Jake Meyers had a one-out double off Austin Gomber in the first and Altuve and Cam Smith followed with back-to-back singles for a 1-0 lead in the first.
Rookie Shay Whitcomb hit his first home run 451 feet to left-center field for a 2-0 lead in the second.
SHAY WHITCOMB! FIRST MAJOR LEAGUE HOMER! #BuiltForThis pic.twitter.com/zHfQUuIXnS
— Houston Astros (@astros) July 3, 2025
Cooper Hummel singled and Mauricio Dubón drew a walk off reliever Angel Chivilli (1-4) in the sixth. Altuve drove a two-out pitch from Jake Bird to center to score both. Smith followed with an RBI single for a 5-2 lead.
Cam makes it 5-2 Astros! #BuiltForThis pic.twitter.com/j4xMIaY62F
— Houston Astros (@astros) July 3, 2025
Thairo Estrada went 3 for 4 and singled and scored ahead of Mickey Moniak's 12th home run to tie it 2-2 in the Rockies' second.
Gomber allowed two runs on eight hits in five innings.
Houston has won three in a row and 16 of 21.
Brown struck out Hunter Goodman in the third for No. 500 and then fanned Jordan Beck swinging on a 99.8 mph fastball — his fastest this season — to end the inning.
The Rockies have lost all 14 series at home, dropping the first two games 13 times.
Astros LHP Brandon Walter (1-1, 3.34 ERA) starts Thursday's series finale opposite Rockies LHP Kyle Freeland (1-9, 5.56).
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