The Houston Astros are coming off a terrific home stand, taking a series from the Padres, followed by a sweep of the Blue Jays. The bats came alive, and the pitching has continued to be impressive. But here's the big question; is this sustainable?

Houston's overall numbers this season closely mirror last year’s performance, which is a great sign. In 2024, they finished top 6 in ERA and ranked 4th in batting average against. Fast-forward to 2025, and they’re first in WHIP and rank among the top five in nearly every major pitching category. This consistency suggests their success is not some early-season anomaly, but the result of a proven, repeatable formula.

Ryan Gusto has quietly become one of the more intriguing arms in the rotation. He leads the team with a 61% zone percentage, and while you might expect that to come with a lot of loud contact, that hasn’t exactly been the case. His zone contact percentage is actually better than you’d expect for someone filling the zone that much, and among current starters, only Hunter Brown is better. That’s a great sign for Gusto’s long-term viability and a testament to the quality of strikes he’s throwing—not just the quantity.

On the offensive side, there’s a bit more nuance. Optimistically, the Astros are one of just five AL teams with a positive run differential, currently sitting at +11. That’s often a good indicator of underlying team strength, especially this early in the season. Jeremy Peña is riding a 14-game hitting streak and has shown a 10% increase in hard-hit rate, according to the Astros broadcast. While his traditional numbers like batting average and slugging are slightly down from last year, his on-base percentage, OPS, and OPS+ are all up. That points to better at-bats and more mature plate appearances—even if the results aren’t always explosive.

The Astros are also experimenting with some interesting lineup flexibility. Cam Smith taking reps in center field could open the door for Zach Dezenzo to slide into right, potentially pushing a rotation with Jake Meyers in center. While Dezenzo doesn’t appear to be an option at second base, where Mauricio Dubón has struggled and Brendan Rodgers has underwhelmed, the added flexibility in the outfield is still a valuable tool for manager Joe Espada.

Signs of improvement or concern?

Christian Walker now has a higher slugging percentage than Yordan Alvarez—.345 to .338—which is unexpected, especially considering Walker's early season struggles. However, it's also a reminder that a few good at-bats can massively impact the numbers this early in the season.

The team as a whole is middle-of-the-pack in batting average (15th) but ranks 24th in slugging (last in the AL West) and 23rd in OPS. Only the Texas Rangers have been worse in OPS among division rivals.

Jose Altuve, meanwhile, has been a mixed bag. Watching him at the plate, especially in two-strike counts, has been tough. On 2-2 counts, he’s hitting just .154 with a .297 OPS, and he’s struck out in 7 of 14 plate appearances in that scenario. It’s gotten to the point where you almost expect a chase on anything off the plate. The encouraging sign, though, is his rebound on full counts—he’s posted a whopping .930 OPS in 3-2 situations, suggesting he’s not completely lost at the plate but may be pressing in earlier two-strike counts.

Perhaps the most glaring issue has been the team’s production with the bases loaded. It’s been downright dreadful. Through 31 plate appearances, they’ve managed only three hits—good for a .111 average. It’s a small sample size, but still significant enough to highlight the Astros’ situational hitting struggles.

We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!

^{*ChatGPT assisted.}

___________________________

Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!

https://houston.sportsmap.com/advertise