THE PALLILOG
These mammoth x-factors now stand between Houston Astros and history
Mar 29, 2023, 9:29 am
Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman make quite the trio. Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images.
The time will come when the Astros don’t have an outstanding team. Barring a series of calamities over the next six months, that time will not be 2023. Are the Astros likely to win the World Series again this year? No they are not. However, as the season starts no team has a better shot at 2023 glory, and only the Astros have the shot to end the more than two decades long drought without a repeat champ in Major League Baseball. A seven game homestand can make for a nice springboard into the season. Winning three of four from the White Sox is the most logical outcome for the opening series, then the likely still lousy Detroit Tigers visit for three.
The Astros begin the season as a lesser squad than that which rolled through the postseason with eleven wins in 13 games to post World Series title number two. Justin Verlander is gone for good. That indisputably weakens the starting rotation. Jose Altuve is gone for the first quarter or so of the season. That indisputably weakens the everyday lineup. Still, the Astros won 106 games last season in taking the American League West for the fifth time in six years and doing so by a whopping 16 game margin. They have room for some fall off while remaining king of the mountain. The runner-up Seattle Mariners look improved over the squad that won 90 games then pushed the Astros hard despite getting swept in their three game Division Series, but not so much improved that they look better than the Astros. That is where injuries and unexpected jumps or declines can flip a division.
In 2021 the Astros faced an entire season without Justin Verlander and won 95 games. In 2021 Yuli Gurriel had his overall best season (his 31 homers in 2019 was a juiced ball driven aberration), so did Carlos Correa. Jose Altuve played 146 games. While new first baseman Jose Abreu is maybe 50/50 to be better than 2021 Yuli, he is a near lock to be a lot better than 2022 Yuli. What is Jeremy Pena in his second season? He’s not going to hit .345 with an OPS over 1.000 as he posted in a superstar postseason tour de force, but with solid improvement over his rookie regular season Pena can become a bonafide star. The big Pena issue is plate discipline. Swinging at more hittable pitches should boost his batting average from .253. Not swinging at more balls is a must. Pena simply must walk more if he is to be a good regular leadoff batter in Altuve’s absence. Last season Pena walked just 22 times in 558 plate appearances. That is horrible and resulted in a poor on base percentage of .289. Coupled with his power, even a .333 OBP from Pena would be acceptable. Altuve is looking at playing 100 games or so max. That is a problem without resolution, unless David Hensley is a revelation.
While there are notable question marks, the Astros have potentially very good answers to most and a talent baseline second to none. If picking trios off any roster for their 2023 production, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman might be top five. If given to prayer, say one for Yordan’s hands being and remaining fine. The loss of Verlander should not be downplayed. Every time he went to the mound the Astros rated the pitching edge going into the game. Framber Valdez had a fabulous 2022 and may have another level yet in him, but there are a dozen or so teams for which Framber would not be the opening day starter. Well, maybe Cristian Javier is the new ace-to-be. All Astros’ starters are backed by the best bullpen in the game, which returns essentially intact.
AL West outlook
As for the rest of the AL West apart from the Mariners, the Texas Rangers have spent gobs of money in back-to-back offseasons trying to matter again. In Altuve’s absence, their lineup could be better than the Astros in five spots. If starting rotation additions Jacob DeGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and Andrew Heaney all stay healthy all season, the Rangers can be in the race. If DeGrom, Eovaldi, and Heaney all stay healthy all season, look up for the flying pigs.
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Orange County in Southern California still have Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Yeah, and? They actually had a good depth-building offseason and come September should at least be in the wild card picture.
The (future, bet on it) Las Vegas Athletics are again garbage.
The Rockets are winding down their third consecutive laughingstock garbage season. The Texans have renewed hope of competence but are still more than five months from playing a game that matters. So amen to Astros baseball being back, if not better than ever, plenty good enough for another season of excellence. Let’s say 95 wins worth.
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It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
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