THE PALLILOG
These mammoth x-factors now stand between Houston Astros and history
Mar 29, 2023, 9:29 am
Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman make quite the trio. Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images.
The time will come when the Astros don’t have an outstanding team. Barring a series of calamities over the next six months, that time will not be 2023. Are the Astros likely to win the World Series again this year? No they are not. However, as the season starts no team has a better shot at 2023 glory, and only the Astros have the shot to end the more than two decades long drought without a repeat champ in Major League Baseball. A seven game homestand can make for a nice springboard into the season. Winning three of four from the White Sox is the most logical outcome for the opening series, then the likely still lousy Detroit Tigers visit for three.
The Astros begin the season as a lesser squad than that which rolled through the postseason with eleven wins in 13 games to post World Series title number two. Justin Verlander is gone for good. That indisputably weakens the starting rotation. Jose Altuve is gone for the first quarter or so of the season. That indisputably weakens the everyday lineup. Still, the Astros won 106 games last season in taking the American League West for the fifth time in six years and doing so by a whopping 16 game margin. They have room for some fall off while remaining king of the mountain. The runner-up Seattle Mariners look improved over the squad that won 90 games then pushed the Astros hard despite getting swept in their three game Division Series, but not so much improved that they look better than the Astros. That is where injuries and unexpected jumps or declines can flip a division.
In 2021 the Astros faced an entire season without Justin Verlander and won 95 games. In 2021 Yuli Gurriel had his overall best season (his 31 homers in 2019 was a juiced ball driven aberration), so did Carlos Correa. Jose Altuve played 146 games. While new first baseman Jose Abreu is maybe 50/50 to be better than 2021 Yuli, he is a near lock to be a lot better than 2022 Yuli. What is Jeremy Pena in his second season? He’s not going to hit .345 with an OPS over 1.000 as he posted in a superstar postseason tour de force, but with solid improvement over his rookie regular season Pena can become a bonafide star. The big Pena issue is plate discipline. Swinging at more hittable pitches should boost his batting average from .253. Not swinging at more balls is a must. Pena simply must walk more if he is to be a good regular leadoff batter in Altuve’s absence. Last season Pena walked just 22 times in 558 plate appearances. That is horrible and resulted in a poor on base percentage of .289. Coupled with his power, even a .333 OBP from Pena would be acceptable. Altuve is looking at playing 100 games or so max. That is a problem without resolution, unless David Hensley is a revelation.
While there are notable question marks, the Astros have potentially very good answers to most and a talent baseline second to none. If picking trios off any roster for their 2023 production, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman might be top five. If given to prayer, say one for Yordan’s hands being and remaining fine. The loss of Verlander should not be downplayed. Every time he went to the mound the Astros rated the pitching edge going into the game. Framber Valdez had a fabulous 2022 and may have another level yet in him, but there are a dozen or so teams for which Framber would not be the opening day starter. Well, maybe Cristian Javier is the new ace-to-be. All Astros’ starters are backed by the best bullpen in the game, which returns essentially intact.
AL West outlook
As for the rest of the AL West apart from the Mariners, the Texas Rangers have spent gobs of money in back-to-back offseasons trying to matter again. In Altuve’s absence, their lineup could be better than the Astros in five spots. If starting rotation additions Jacob DeGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and Andrew Heaney all stay healthy all season, the Rangers can be in the race. If DeGrom, Eovaldi, and Heaney all stay healthy all season, look up for the flying pigs.
The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Orange County in Southern California still have Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Yeah, and? They actually had a good depth-building offseason and come September should at least be in the wild card picture.
The (future, bet on it) Las Vegas Athletics are again garbage.
The Rockets are winding down their third consecutive laughingstock garbage season. The Texans have renewed hope of competence but are still more than five months from playing a game that matters. So amen to Astros baseball being back, if not better than ever, plenty good enough for another season of excellence. Let’s say 95 wins worth.
Here's where you can find more Astros content this season!
Stone Cold ‘Stros is the weekly Astro-centric podcast I am part of alongside Brandon Strange and Josh Jordan. On our regular schedule it airs live at 3PM Monday on the SportsMapHouston YouTube channel, is available there for playback at any point, and also becomes available in podcast form at outlets galore. Such as:
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Nick Chubb didn’t expect to be a Houston Texan. At least, not until he got the call on a quiet Saturday at home and was on a flight the next day. It happened fast — too fast, even, for the four-time Pro Bowler to fully process what it all meant. But now that he’s here, it’s clear this wasn’t a random landing spot. This was a calculated leap, one Chubb had been quietly considering from afar.
The reasons he chose Houston speak volumes not only about where Chubb is in his own career, but where the Texans are as a franchise.
For one, Chubb saw what the rest of the league saw the last two seasons: a young team turning the corner. He admired the Texans from a distance — the culture shift under head coach DeMeco Ryans, the explosive rise of C.J. Stroud, and the physical tone set by players like Joe Mixon. That identity clicked with Chubb. He’d been a fan of Ryans for years, and once he got in the building, everything aligned.
“I came here and saw a bunch of guys who like to work and not talk,” Chubb said. “And I realized I'm a perfect fit.”
As for his health, Chubb isn’t running from the injuries that cost him parts of the past two seasons, he’s owning them. But now, he says, they’re behind him. After a full offseason of training the way he always has — hitting his speed and strength benchmarks — Chubb says he’s feeling the best he has in years. He’s quick to remind people that bouncing back from major injuries, especially the one he suffered in 2023, is rarely a one-year journey. It takes time. He’s given it time.
Then there’s his fit with Mixon. The two aren’t just stylistic complements, they go way back. Same recruiting class, same reputation for running hard, same respect for each other’s games. Chubb remembers dreading matchups against the Bengals in Cleveland, worrying Mixon would take over the game. Now, he sees the opportunity in pairing up. “It’ll be us kinda doing that back-to-back against other defenses,” he said.
He’s also well aware of what C.J. Stroud brings to the table. Chubb watched Stroud nearly dismantle Georgia in the College Football Playoff. Then he saw it again, up close, when Stroud lit up the Browns in the postseason. “He torched us again,” Chubb said. Now, he gets to run alongside him, not against him.
Stroud made a point to welcome Chubb, exchanging numbers and offering support. It may seem like a small thing, but it’s the kind of leadership that helped sell Chubb on the Texans as more than just a good football fit — it’s a good locker room fit, too.
It appears the decision to come to Houston wasn’t part of some master plan. But in retrospect, it makes perfect sense. Chubb is a player with a no-nonsense work ethic, recovering from adversity, looking to write the next chapter of a career that’s far from over. And the Texans? They’re a team on the rise, built around guys who want to do the same.
You can watch the full interview in the video below.
And for those wondering how Joe Mixon feels about Nick Chubb, check out this video from last season. Let's just say he's a fan.
I’ve seen some speculation indicating that Joe Mixon may not be happy the Texans signed Nick Chubb. If that is what you believe, watch this clip from an interview with @greenlight pod last year & get back to me. pic.twitter.com/3vaip85esj
— Houston Stressans (@TexansCommenter) June 11, 2025
*ChatGPT assisted.
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