THE PALLILOG

These mammoth x-factors now stand between Houston Astros and history

These mammoth x-factors now stand between Houston Astros and history
Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman make quite the trio. Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images.

The time will come when the Astros don’t have an outstanding team. Barring a series of calamities over the next six months, that time will not be 2023. Are the Astros likely to win the World Series again this year? No they are not. However, as the season starts no team has a better shot at 2023 glory, and only the Astros have the shot to end the more than two decades long drought without a repeat champ in Major League Baseball. A seven game homestand can make for a nice springboard into the season. Winning three of four from the White Sox is the most logical outcome for the opening series, then the likely still lousy Detroit Tigers visit for three.

The Astros begin the season as a lesser squad than that which rolled through the postseason with eleven wins in 13 games to post World Series title number two. Justin Verlander is gone for good. That indisputably weakens the starting rotation. Jose Altuve is gone for the first quarter or so of the season. That indisputably weakens the everyday lineup. Still, the Astros won 106 games last season in taking the American League West for the fifth time in six years and doing so by a whopping 16 game margin. They have room for some fall off while remaining king of the mountain. The runner-up Seattle Mariners look improved over the squad that won 90 games then pushed the Astros hard despite getting swept in their three game Division Series, but not so much improved that they look better than the Astros. That is where injuries and unexpected jumps or declines can flip a division.

In 2021 the Astros faced an entire season without Justin Verlander and won 95 games. In 2021 Yuli Gurriel had his overall best season (his 31 homers in 2019 was a juiced ball driven aberration), so did Carlos Correa. Jose Altuve played 146 games. While new first baseman Jose Abreu is maybe 50/50 to be better than 2021 Yuli, he is a near lock to be a lot better than 2022 Yuli. What is Jeremy Pena in his second season? He’s not going to hit .345 with an OPS over 1.000 as he posted in a superstar postseason tour de force, but with solid improvement over his rookie regular season Pena can become a bonafide star. The big Pena issue is plate discipline. Swinging at more hittable pitches should boost his batting average from .253. Not swinging at more balls is a must. Pena simply must walk more if he is to be a good regular leadoff batter in Altuve’s absence. Last season Pena walked just 22 times in 558 plate appearances. That is horrible and resulted in a poor on base percentage of .289. Coupled with his power, even a .333 OBP from Pena would be acceptable. Altuve is looking at playing 100 games or so max. That is a problem without resolution, unless David Hensley is a revelation.

While there are notable question marks, the Astros have potentially very good answers to most and a talent baseline second to none. If picking trios off any roster for their 2023 production, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman might be top five. If given to prayer, say one for Yordan’s hands being and remaining fine. The loss of Verlander should not be downplayed. Every time he went to the mound the Astros rated the pitching edge going into the game. Framber Valdez had a fabulous 2022 and may have another level yet in him, but there are a dozen or so teams for which Framber would not be the opening day starter. Well, maybe Cristian Javier is the new ace-to-be. All Astros’ starters are backed by the best bullpen in the game, which returns essentially intact.

AL West outlook

As for the rest of the AL West apart from the Mariners, the Texas Rangers have spent gobs of money in back-to-back offseasons trying to matter again. In Altuve’s absence, their lineup could be better than the Astros in five spots. If starting rotation additions Jacob DeGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and Andrew Heaney all stay healthy all season, the Rangers can be in the race. If DeGrom, Eovaldi, and Heaney all stay healthy all season, look up for the flying pigs.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Orange County in Southern California still have Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Yeah, and? They actually had a good depth-building offseason and come September should at least be in the wild card picture.

The (future, bet on it) Las Vegas Athletics are again garbage.

The Rockets are winding down their third consecutive laughingstock garbage season. The Texans have renewed hope of competence but are still more than five months from playing a game that matters. So amen to Astros baseball being back, if not better than ever, plenty good enough for another season of excellence. Let’s say 95 wins worth.

Here's where you can find more Astros content this season!

Stone Cold ‘Stros is the weekly Astro-centric podcast I am part of alongside Brandon Strange and Josh Jordan. On our regular schedule it airs live at 3PM Monday on the SportsMapHouston YouTube channel, is available there for playback at any point, and also becomes available in podcast form at outlets galore. Such as:

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The Coogs are back in action Friday night. Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images.

Sixteen may be sweet, but it isn’t the only relevant number as the NCAA Tournament heads into the regional semifinals.

Here are some other numbers worth knowing for each team. These statistics will help you learn more about each of the remaining teams and could explain how some of them got this far.

EAST REGION

UCONN: In UConn’s second-round victory over Northwestern, Donovan Clingan became just the third player in tournament history to get 14 points, 14 rebounds and eight blocks in a game. The others to do it were Hakeem Olajuwon for Houston in 1983 and David Robinson for Navy in 1986. The blocks also were the most ever by a UConn player in a tournament game.

SAN DIEGO STATE: The Aztecs’ Sweet 16 matchup with defending national champion UConn will mark the fourth time that two teams have faced each other in the tournament a year after meeting in the final. The losing team from the championship won the rematch in one of the three previous instances, when Duke beat UNLV in a 1991 semifinal. Cincinnati won two straight championship games over Ohio State in 1961-62. Florida beat UCLA in the 2006 championship game and in a 2007 semifinal.

ILLINOIS: Illinois has won six in a row, and Terrence Shannon Jr. has scored at least 25 points in each of those games. The 6-foot-6 guard has averaged 30.5 points and has shot 52.8% (56 of 106) from the floor during that stretch. He also shown an uncanny knack for drawing fouls during the streak. Over his last five games, Shannon has gone 51 of 58 on free-throw attempts.

IOWA STATE: Iowa State is allowing just 61.2 points per game to rank fourth among all Division I teams in scoring defense. Since falling 73-65 to Houston on Feb. 19, the Cyclones haven’t allowed any of their last 10 opponents to exceed 65 points. The Cyclones next face Illinois, which ranks ninth in points per game (84.6) and has averaged 91.3 points over its last four contests.

WEST REGION

ALABAMA: Mark Sears and Aaron Estrada were the first set of Division I teammates since 1996-97 to both have at least 410 points, 125 assists, 120 rebounds, 50 3-point baskets and 40 steals during the regular season. Sears is averaging 21.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.7 steals. Estrada has 13.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.7 steals per game.

NORTH CAROLINA: Armando Bacot had seven straight tournament double-doubles and six consecutive tourney games with at least 15 rebounds before he ended up with 18 points and seven boards in a second-round victory over Michigan State. His seven straight NCAA double-doubles matched Tim Duncan and Olajuwon for the NCAA record.

ARIZONA: Arizona’s first-round triumph over Long Beach State marked the 19th time this season the Wildcats had five different players score in double figures. No other Division I team had that many games this season in which five different players had at least 10 points.

CLEMSON: Each of Clemson’s first two tournament opponents has shot below 40% against the Tigers. Clemson won its first-round game by limiting New Mexico to 29.7% shooting, the lowest percentage the Tigers had ever allowed in an NCAA tourney game. Clemson now faces Arizona, which shot 52.8% in its second-round victory over Dayton.

MIDWEST REGION

CREIGHTON: Baylor Scheierman is the first Division I men’s player in history to have at least 2,000 career points, 1,000 rebounds, 500 assists and 300 3-point baskets. Scheierman, who is in his second season at Creighton after playing three seasons at South Dakota State, has 2,208 points, 1,250 rebounds, 578 assists and 352 3-pointers.

TENNESSEE: Tennessee is making its 10th Sweet 16 appearance – including its seventh in the last 18 years – but the Volunteers have never reached the Final Four and earned their lone regional final berth in 2010.

GONZAGA: Gonzaga is in the Sweet 16 for the ninth straight time, the longest active streak of any Division I team. Going back to 1975 – the first year that all teams had to win at least one game to reach the Sweet 16 – the record for consecutive Sweet 16 appearances is owned by North Carolina with 13 straight from 1981-93.

PURDUE: Zach Edey is the first player since Kareen Abdul-Jabbar (then known as Lew Alcindor) in 1968 to have at least 50 points and 35 rebounds while shooting 65% from the field in his first two games of an NCAA Tournament. Edey has shot 67.9% (19 of 28) and has totaled 53 points and 35 rebounds in victories over Grambling State and Utah State.

SOUTH REGION

DUKE: Jared McCain has gone 10 of 17 from 3-point range through the first two rounds. In the Blue Devils’ second-round blowout of James Madison, McCain became the first freshman to score at least 30 points without committing a turnover in an NCAA Tournament game since the event expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

HOUSTON: The Cougars showcased their depth by surviving a second-round matchup with Texas A&M in overtime even after four of their five starters fouled out. They became the first team to win an NCAA game while having at least four players foul out since 1987, when UTEP overcame foul trouble to beat Arizona.

MARQUETTE: Marquette owns a 75-29 record under coach Shaka Smart despite posting a negative rebound margin in each of his three seasons. The Golden Eagles have been outrebounded in each of their last eight games but have gone 5-3. They’re getting outrebounded by 3 boards per game this season. The only other Sweet 16 team with a negative rebound margin is North Carolina State (minus-0.8), which faces Marquette on Friday.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE: Mohamed Diarra has 6.4 points and 7.7 rebounds per game this season, but he’s averaged 11.7 points and 13.5 rebounds over his last six. Michael O’Connell scored in double digits three times and totaled 14 3-point baskets in 31 regular-season games. He’s reached double figures in six of seven postseason games and has gone 12 of 22 from 3-point range during that stretch.

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