YULI UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
How Yuli Gurriel's contract extension impacts the Astros moving forward
Oct 5, 2020, 11:27 am
YULI UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
Prior to the postseason series with the Minnesota Twins, the Houston Astros announced that impending free agent first baseman Yuli Gurriel would return on a one-year, $7M deal. The contract includes a club option for 2022 for $8M.
Gurriel was far from the biggest fish facing the market for the Astros -- that's still George Springer -- but first base was a legitimate question mark for 2021 and beyond. Taylor Jones has been uninspiring in his Major League cup of coffee and doesn't seem like a long-term solution, and nobody else in the system stands out either. That being said, Gurriel had the worst season of his career in 2020. Is it smart to depend on a 37-year-old to bounce back? Was 2019 an outlier or the beginning of regression? Could the Astros have found similar production for a cheaper price on the market?
Gurriel has one of the most unique batted ball profiles in MLB, making him a tough hitter to judge.
He relies on bat-to-ball skills. He's never had a K% worse than his 2020 mark of 11.7%, clocking in at 10.6%, 11%, and 11% the last three seasons. He had an 8.8% mark in his abbreviated rookie campaign in 2016. Even his career worst mark of 11.7% is elite strikeout avoidance, placing in the 97th percentile in MLB in 2020.
The dedication to contact comes with a consequence: he doesn't do a ton of damage.
Gurriel broke out for 31 homers in 2019, but remember, the baseball was "juiced" in 2019. There's evidence that the ball has normalized again in 2020, as home runs dropped 8% despite the entire season only being played in warm weather months. For most of his career, Gurriel has been a 15-homer type of hitter. He hit 6 homers in 57 in games in 2020, which would've put him in that 15-homer range over a full 162 game season if he kept at that pace.
That completely makes sense. Take a look at the ridiculous level of consistency here.
YEAR | BARREL % | HARD HIT % | EXIT VELOCITY |
2016 | 3.4% | 36.1% | 88.8 |
2017 | 3.4% | 43.6% | 89.9 |
2018 | 1.9% | 36.6% | 89.3 |
2019 | 3.6% | 38.1% | 89.3 |
2020 | 3.7% | 36.5% | 89.3 |
It's almost impossible to be that consistent. Simply put, what story do these numbers tell? First, both the Barrel% and Hard Hit% are well below league average, especially the barrel numbers. His exit velocity is above league average, but it isn't special by any means. Gurriel is an "old school" player. He doesn't elevate the ball a ton, and he doesn't strike out a ton. If he played in the '80s, he'd be a household name and multiple time All-Star.
So, why are Gurriel's 2020 numbers so much worse than 2019?
Gurriel never has been and never again will be a 30-homer player. Again, he's a line drive profile that doesn't swing and miss a lot. He's also not a .232/.274/.384 hitter as his 2020 line shows.
Gurriel's BABIP in 2020 was .235, which is way below his career mark of .291. BABIP stands for "Batting Average on Balls In Play", so in his career, Gurriel gets a hit 29.1% of the time the ball is in play. Just based off of luck alone, there's about .060 points in batting average out there to be had. If Gurriel hit .292 instead of .232, people would feel a lot better on the surface. That's the bad luck part of it.
Gurriel actually had a career best mark in Zone Contact%, making contact on 94% of the strikes he swung at, about 3.5% better than his career mark, and a 3% improvement on 2019. Where his discipline profile changed was his ability to make contact on pitches OUTSIDE of the zone. Gurriel's Chase% was right in line with his career marks, chasing 34.3% of pitches outside the zone, but his Contact% on those dropped a whopping 6% from 75.4% to 69.6%. For a hitter as consistent as Gurriel everywhere else, that stands out as a massive difference. He also inexplicably swung at "meatballs", which are pitches right down the middle, only 62% of the time, 13% lower than last year.
On top is Gurriel's 2019 swing profile. Right below it is Gurriel's 2020 swing profile. It immediately stands out how much more Gurriel swung at pitches up and out of the strike zone and on the outer-third of the plate. While his chase-rate was the same year-to-year, there's a clear problem area in 2020 compared to a spread in 2019. Pitches up in the zone also play up in velocity, which could show that Gurriel's hands are slowing down a tick if he's struggling to get to that pitch. He also swung at a lot of pitches on the outer-third, which isn't necessarily a pitch he's successful with. Gurriel makes his money on pitches on the inner-third, especially at Minute Maid Park with the short porch.
Luck alone will get Gurriel pretty close to the player that he was from 2016-2018. A refined approach, like telling himself to hunt pitches down and lay off pitches away until necessary, can get him to tap into something more. The neutralized baseball will keep him from being 2019 Yuli, but all-in-all, the contract for Gurriel looks like a good deal. He plays plus defense at first base, his numbers indicate he can still be a productive bat in the lineup, and the free agent market at first base isn't all that impressive. Carlos Santana and Anthony Rizzo -- who both had bad 2020s as well -- headline the market, with guys like C.J. Cron and Mitch Moreland representing the next lower dollar options. Rizzo and Santana would likely be more expensive than Gurriel. Cron and Moreland would be cheaper, but they're also not as good. James Click's first extension as General Manager looks to be the right move at first glance.
Despite a last-minute comeback attempt by Gonzaga on Saturday, the Cougars defeated the Bulldogs and advanced to the Sweet 16 for the sixth straight NCAA Tournament.
Houston will face the No.4 seed Purdue, who made it to the championship game last year.
The Boilermakers will be one of the toughest opponents the Cougars have faced thus far and will essentially have the home-court advantage with the game taking place in Indianapolis.
Despite the daunting matchup on paper, Houston is currently an -8.5 favorite to win this game. The Cougars should be able to handle Purdue so long as their offense stays hot and they continue to play defense at an elite level.
Keep the offense flowing
Houston guard LJ Cryer matched a career-high with 30 points against Gonzaga and has been the offensive focal point of this team.
This season, the Baylor transfer has averaged 15.6 points per game and has stepped up to be one of the unquestioned leaders of this team.
In addition to Cryer, the Cougars have Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp, who can carry the offensive load as they did during the Big 12 Tournament and against SIUE on Thursday.
J’Wan Roberts is another key factor for Houston’s success. The senior forward seems to have recovered from his ankle injury and has been a productive player since returning to the lineup.
Roberts leads the team in rebounds and is one of the most efficient scorers for the Cougars, averaging more than 50% from the field over his last five seasons.
Houston’s dynamic offense and elite defense makes this team one of the toughest to beat during the tournament.
Containing Purdue’s stars
The Boilermakers have two proficient scorers on their team, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Braden Smith, who each average over 15 points per game.
Kaufman-Renn scored 22 points in his previous game against McNeese State and has been one of Purdue’s best players for most of this year.
Roberts and Joseph Tuggler will likely be assigned to the junior forward to slow down his offense, forcing his teammates to step up.
Smith is Purdue’s second-leading scorer, averaging 16 points per game, and has the most assists and steals for the Boilermakers this season.
Both Uzan and Cyrer, who have been elite parameter defenders, will cover the Purdue guard and limit his production.
Containing both Kaufman-Renn and Smith will be Houston’s top priority and the key to come away victorious.
Play Cougar basketball
Head coach Kelvin Sampson has now made it to at least the Sweet 16 six consecutive times and has his team well-positioned to make another deep tournament run.
Since arriving in Houston, the 69-year-old coach has turned this program from an afterthought to one of the best basketball teams in the country year after year.
Sampson’s key to his success is instilling a defensive-first mentality into his team and getting the best effort out of his players.
This season is no different, as Houston has the number-one ranked defense in the nation and is holding their opponents to 58.4 points per game on average.
If the Cougars can create consistent offense and continue playing defense at an elite level, they should win this game with ease and advance to the Elite 8 for the first time in three years.
The Houston-Purdue game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium on Friday at 9 pm. The winner will play either Kentucky or Tennessee in the next round.