GAMBLING GUIDE
Play Action or Pass Week 12: NFL Russian Roulette
Jerry Bo
Nov 22, 2017, 8:30 am
Tom Savage could have a tough time against the Ravens. Tim Warren/Getty Images
Roulette- Is a casino game: a game of chance, where the objective is to guess what the next spin will land on. Players can bet on a single number, various groupings of numbers, the colors red or black, whether the number is odd or even, or if the numbers are high (19–36) or low (1–18).
Russian Roulette- is also a game of chance, only, this is a lethal chance. Players pass around a revolver loaded with a single round. The objective, Not to die?
Quarterback- The play caller of the offense. Usually the leader of a franchise. The quarterback spot is among the most glorified and scrutinized positions in team sports. Typically, teams that have success, are led by quality quarterbacks.
Combine all three, and a lethal game of quarterback Russian roulette is what is being played in Denver. The Broncos have only scored 183 points this season, 18.3 per game, ranking them 24th. Much of this can be credited to the inconsistent play at the quarterback position.
Loading the Chamber....
Coming off a 3400-yard season with 18 touchdowns in 14 games as a starter, Trevor Siemian once again won the 2017 training camp battle for the starting quarterback job to begin the season. As a starter this year, he had a TD-INT ratio of 9-10 while only completing 61.5% of his passes in 7 games, throwing for a miserable 238 yards a game.
Spinning the cylinder....
Week 9, 2017, Brock Osweiler returned as the starter. Time to Brock and roll? Not so fast, as he was back to his traditional ways. In three games, he managed to throw four interceptions while only tossing three touchdowns. He was repulsive, only completing 53% of his passes while averaging just 175 yards passing. In his three starts, the Broncos were outscored by 56 points.
BANG.....
The 3-7 Broncos are imploding. The only problem is the wrong man bit the bullet, former OC Mike McCoy. The Broncos instead chose to go in a different direction replacing him with quarterbacks coach Bill Musgrave. Enter the 2016 26th overall pick, Paxton Lynch. In his rookie season in two starts, he went 49-of-83 for 497 yards, two touchdowns and an interception with a passer rating of 79.2. Lynch was inactive for the first nine games after suffering a sprained throwing shoulder during the August 26 preseason game against the Green Bay Packers. The second-year quarterback threw deep for the first time in two months just last week.
Let's see where this fatal game takes us to with Denver(+5) visiting division rival Oakland Sunday. Will Paxton Lynch survive?
Play, Action or pass went 7-3 in week 11. We are now 20-16-2 in 2017.
Plays
Ravens:- 7
Over the last eight games at M&T Bank Stadium, the Ravens defense has yielded an average of 13 points. The rush defense has been frightening the last three games, holding opposing running backs to 146 total yards averaging 2.56 per attempt, scoring only once. This will be a problem for the Texans with Lamar Miller solely commanding the backfield in the wake of D’Onta Foreman's injury. If the Texans fall behind in this game, which I think they will, Tom Savage will be the key to keeping this a one-score game. The only problem, the Ravens are second in the league in passing yards allowed allowing only 185 per game. Joe Flacco has not been spectacular by any means, but with a top 5 defense behind him, I believe he will have a relatively easy day giving him short fields and possibly a few turnovers. The Texans inability to score will put him in position to not have to win the game but simply manage it. The Texans are now 1-3 straight up and ATS in games not started by Watson; they were 5-1 vs. the spread when he was in.
Panthers:-4 (buy the hook if 4.5)
Carolina has turned things around. Lately, Cam Newton's legs have been the story. Coming into the season, Carolina's head coach Ron Rivera said he wanted to limit the hits his star player took this year as he was hit and sacked a career high last year. Through the first five games, his attempts were 6, 5, 3, 8, 7, not surpassing the 44-yard mark in any of those games. In 2015, when he won the MVP award, he had 132 rush attempts. In his last five games, his attempts have increased immensely (11, 9, 11, 9, 5) averaging nine carries per game. In the blowout win vs. Miaimi, he only had five carries but busted out for 95 yards. The Jets are highly vulnerable to dual-threat quarterbacks, giving up the third most of yards of all teams to the position with 204 rush yards on the year. Newton leads all quarterbacks in attempts (74) and yards (436) this season, look for him to extend drives with his legs throughout the game. The Panthers defense aren't slouches either ranking 6th in DVOA. Just a few weeks back, the Jets were unable to take advantage of the Buccaneers 27th ranked defense only putting together 10 points in a losing effort 15-10. The Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Meanwhile, the Jets, are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 November games.
Action
Colts: +4 (buy the hook if 3.5)
Falcons Team Total over 30
Teasers
7 point:
Steelers-7/Jags+2
Steelers-7/Eagles-6.5
10 point:
Chiefs PK/ Steelers-4/Patriots
Steelers-4/Eagles-3.5/Bengals+2
Steelers-4/FalconsPK/Eagles-3.5
Pass
Rams-2.5
The "Game of the week" features an NFC matchup that we might see later this season in the playoffs. I would love to take the Rams to bounce back here at home, but I just can't see myself betting Jared Goff over Drew Brees. The Rams are 2-2 ATS at home this year, while Brees and the Saints have won 8 in a row going 6-2 vs. the number. I do like the over some as I think there will be some scoring from both teams. Saints overs are 36-23 since 2013.
Super Bowl Odds
New England Patriots +275
Philadelphia Eagles +400
Pittsburgh Steelers +500
New Orleans Saints +800
Minnesota Vikings +1000
Los Angeles Rams +1800
Atlanta Falcons +180
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.
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How Astros advanced metrics tell puzzling story about Houston's start
Apr 17, 2025, 5:21 pm
Major League Baseball’s regular season is 162 games long. You can think of 18 games as the first inning of the season, 18 times nine equaling 162. While the Astros 8-10 record is not good, it’s far from disastrous. Think of it as them being behind 1-0 after the first inning. It is pretty remarkable that they have yet to win consecutive games. Even during last year’s 7-19 stink bomb of a start the Astros twice managed to win two in a row.
The Astros’ offensive woes are plentiful. Oddly enough as impotent as they’ve been, the Astros have yet to be shutout. But in half their games they have scored exactly one or two runs. Basically, most of them stink thus far. Exemptions go to Jose Altuve and Isaac Paredes, but it’s not like either of them has been outstanding. It’s still early enough that one big series can dramatically alter the numbers, but the Astros badly need Yordan Alvarez to pick up his production. Yordan enters the weekend batting just .224 with a .695 OPS and just four extra base hits. Yainer rhymes with minor. As in minor leagues, where Diaz belongs at his current level of performance. That is not saying Diaz should be sent down, just that any random AAA catcher called up couldn’t have done much worse to this point. Diaz isn’t hitting Altuve’s weight, a woeful .130 with seven hits in 57 at bats. Diaz simply remains too undisciplined at the plate swinging at too many balls. He’s drawn three walks. And now to Christian Walker, who thus far has delivered return on investment for his three year 60 million dollar contract about as strong as the stock market’s performance in Tariff Time. Walker’s .154 batting average and .482 OPS are very Astro Jose Abreu-like. Walker’s23 strikeouts in 65 at bats jump off the page. He has often looked befuddled in the batter's box. Walker is definitely pressing and frustrated, wanting to perform better for his new team. Jeremy Pena goes into the weekend batting .215 and has one hit in 13 at bats with runners in scoring position. Brendan Rodgers, Jake Meyers, and Chas McCormick all have weak stat lines, with little reason to expect quality offensive output from any of them. Cam Smith is at .200 with a yucky .591 OPS but he’s obviously a young stud work in progress thrown into the deep end of the pool.
All batting orders are top-heavy, the Astros’ on paper more so than many. As I set forth on one of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts this week, the first inning should be a team’s best offensive inning. It’s the only frame in which a team gets to dictate who comes up from the start with the batters lined up just as the manager slots them. Add to that, the first inning is a good time to get to a starting pitcher before he settles in. The Astros have scored a pitiful three first inning runs in 18 games, and in two of the games they pushed one across in the first, it turned out to be the only Astro run of the game. Improvement needs to come internally from the big league roster. It’s not as if the Astros have a meaningful prospect at AAA Sugar Land who looks ready to help. Entering play Thursday the Space Cowboys’ team average was .186. Second base hopeful Brice Matthews is nowhere close, batting .180 and striking out left and right. Outfielder Jacob Melton opened three for 17 following the back injury-delayed start to his season.
As exasperating and boring as the offense has been for so many, grading needs to occur on a curve. So, while the Astros’ team batting average is a joke at .216, know that at close of business Wednesday the entire American League was batting just .232. The American League West-leading Texas Rangers scored eight fewer runs over their first 18 games than did the Astros, though that is skewed by the Astros’ one 14-run outburst against the Angels.
Familiar faces return
This weekend the Astros play host to the San Diego Padres at Daikin Park. The Friars are off to a fabulous start at 15-4. The Padres being here creates a mini reunion as both Martin Maldonado and Yuli Gurriel are on their roster. In a telling fact, Maldonado would have the third-highest batting average on the Astros if on the team with his current numbers. Maldonado is hitting .250 with seven hits in 28 at bats. The last season he finished above .200 was 2020. The only season in his career Maldonado topped .234 was his rookie season with a .266 mark in 2012.
Gurriel was last good in 2021 when he won the American League batting title at .319. He fell off a cliff from there, though perked up to have a fine postseason in the Astros’ 2022 run to World Series title number two. “La Pina” is batting .115 with just three hits in 26 at bats. Gurriel may be released soon, and approaching his 41st birthday June 9, that would probably be the end of the line. Short-timer Astro Jason Heyward is also on the Padres, and batting .190.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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