GAMBLING GUIDE

Play Action or Pass Week 12: NFL Russian Roulette

Play Action or Pass Week 12: NFL Russian Roulette
Tom Savage could have a tough time against the Ravens. Tim Warren/Getty Images

Roulette- Is a casino game: a game of chance, where the objective is to guess what the next spin will land on. Players can bet on a single number, various groupings of numbers, the colors red or black, whether the number is odd or even, or if the numbers are high (19–36) or low (1–18).

Russian Roulette- is also a game of chance, only, this is a lethal chance. Players pass around a revolver loaded with a single round. The objective, Not to die?

Quarterback- The play caller of the offense. Usually the leader of a franchise.  The quarterback spot is among the most glorified and scrutinized positions in team sports. Typically, teams that have success, are led by quality quarterbacks.

Combine all three, and a lethal game of quarterback Russian roulette is what is being played in Denver. The Broncos have only scored 183 points this season, 18.3 per game, ranking them 24th. Much of this can be credited to the inconsistent play at the quarterback position.

Loading the Chamber....

Coming off a 3400-yard season with 18 touchdowns in 14 games as a starter, Trevor Siemian once again won the 2017 training camp battle for the starting quarterback job to begin the season. As a starter this year, he had a TD-INT ratio of 9-10 while only completing 61.5% of his passes in 7 games, throwing for a miserable 238 yards a game.

Spinning the cylinder....

Week 9, 2017, Brock Osweiler returned as the starter. Time to Brock and roll? Not so fast, as he was back to his traditional ways. In three games, he managed to throw four interceptions while only tossing three touchdowns. He was repulsive, only completing 53% of his passes while averaging just 175 yards passing. In his three starts, the Broncos were outscored by 56 points.

BANG.....

The 3-7 Broncos are imploding. The only problem is the wrong man bit the bullet, former OC Mike McCoy. The Broncos instead chose to go in a different direction replacing him with quarterbacks coach Bill Musgrave. Enter the 2016 26th overall pick, Paxton Lynch.  In his rookie season in two starts, he went 49-of-83 for 497 yards, two touchdowns and an interception with a passer rating of 79.2. Lynch was inactive for the first nine games after suffering a sprained throwing shoulder during the August 26 preseason game against the Green Bay Packers. The second-year quarterback threw deep for the first time in two months just last week.

Let's see where this fatal game takes us to with Denver(+5) visiting division rival Oakland Sunday. Will Paxton Lynch survive?

Play, Action or pass went 7-3 in week 11. We are now 20-16-2 in 2017.

Plays

Ravens:- 7

Over the last eight games at M&T Bank Stadium, the Ravens defense has yielded an average of 13 points.  The rush defense has been frightening the last three games, holding opposing running backs to 146 total yards averaging 2.56 per attempt, scoring only once. This will be a problem for the Texans with Lamar Miller solely commanding the backfield in the wake of D’Onta Foreman's injury. If the Texans fall behind in this game, which I think they will, Tom Savage will be the key to keeping this a one-score game. The only problem, the Ravens are second in the league in passing yards allowed allowing only 185 per game. Joe Flacco has not been spectacular by any means, but with a top 5 defense behind him, I believe he will have a relatively easy day giving him short fields and possibly a few turnovers. The Texans inability to score will put him in position to not have to win the game but simply manage it. The Texans are now 1-3 straight up and ATS in games not started by Watson; they were 5-1 vs. the spread when he was in.

Panthers:-4 (buy the hook if 4.5)

Carolina has turned things around. Lately, Cam Newton's legs have been the story. Coming into the season, Carolina's head coach Ron Rivera said he wanted to limit the hits his star player took this year as he was hit and sacked a career high last year. Through the first five games, his attempts were 6, 5, 3, 8, 7, not surpassing the 44-yard mark in any of those games.  In 2015, when he won the MVP award, he had 132 rush attempts. In his last five games, his attempts have increased immensely (11, 9, 11, 9, 5) averaging nine carries per game. In the blowout win vs. Miaimi, he only had five carries but busted out for 95 yards. The Jets are highly vulnerable to dual-threat quarterbacks, giving up the third most of yards of all teams to the position with 204 rush yards on the year. Newton leads all quarterbacks in attempts (74) and yards (436) this season, look for him to extend drives with his legs throughout the game. The Panthers defense aren't slouches either ranking 6th in DVOA. Just a few weeks back, the Jets were unable to take advantage of the Buccaneers 27th ranked defense only putting together 10 points in a losing effort 15-10. The Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Meanwhile, the Jets, are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 November games.

Action

Colts: +4 (buy the hook if 3.5)

Falcons Team Total over 30

Teasers

7 point:

Steelers-7/Jags+2

Steelers-7/Eagles-6.5

10 point:

Chiefs PK/ Steelers-4/Patriots

Steelers-4/Eagles-3.5/Bengals+2

Steelers-4/FalconsPK/Eagles-3.5

Pass

Rams-2.5

The "Game of the week" features an NFC matchup that we might see later this season in the playoffs. I would love to take the Rams to bounce back here at home, but I just can't see myself betting Jared Goff over Drew Brees. The Rams are 2-2 ATS at home this year, while Brees and the Saints have won 8 in a row going 6-2 vs. the number. I do like the over some as I think there will be some scoring from both teams. Saints overs are 36-23 since 2013.

Super Bowl Odds

New England Patriots    +275

Philadelphia Eagles       +400

Pittsburgh Steelers        +500

New Orleans Saints       +800

Minnesota Vikings       +1000

Los Angeles Rams        +1800

Atlanta Falcons               +180

 

For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.

 

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Stefon Diggs is out for the season. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.

Houston Texans receiver Stefon Diggs will miss the rest of the season after tearing the ACL in his right knee Sunday.

Coach DeMeco Ryans made the announcement Tuesday, calling Diggs being out a huge loss.

“It hurts our team to hear that news,” Ryans said. “He’s been such an important part to our team and just everything that he brought, not only on the field, but off the field. The energy, the leader, the way he worked every single day. He brought a lot to our team and we have to pick up the slack — a lot of guys have to pick up the slack.”

Diggs suffered the non-contact injury in the third quarter of Houston’s win over the Colts on Sunday. He was running a route and pulled up and grabbed at his right knee before falling to the ground.

The 30-year-old Diggs had 47 receptions for 496 yards and three touchdowns in eight games in his first season in Houston after a blockbuster trade from the Bills.

“It's not easy," quarterback C.J. Stroud said. “It's not something that I have a whole bunch of words for. I'm just ... trying to just wrap my mind around what happened but it's tough. You try to think positively about it but there's not a bunch of positive thoughts and I just really feel bad for him.”

Diggs is a four-time Pro Bowler who has had at least 1,000 yards receiving in each of the past six seasons, highlighted by his 2020 season where he led the NFL with a career-high 1,535 yards.

The injury is another blow to a team that is already without leading receiver Nico Collins, who is out at least one more game after being placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury.

With Diggs out, the Texans will need Tank Dell to take on a bigger role in the offense Thursday night when they visit the New York Jets. Dell’s production has dropped off this season after a standout rookie year where he had 709 yards receiving with seven touchdowns in 11 games before breaking his leg.

He has 229 yards receiving this season and scored his second touchdown in Sunday’s win which improved the AFC South-leading Texans to 6-2.

“Once you lose one of the star players, everybody has got to step up,” Dell said. “Even if you are one of the star players, you still have to step up and do more and produce more. I know all of us are more than capable of doing that. So we are going to try to go out there and make plays.”

The Texans also have receivers Robert Woods, Xavier Hutchinson and John Metchie, but none of those players has contributed much this season. The three players have combined for just 146 yards receiving.

“Other leaders have got to step up,” Stroud said. “We need a leader in that room to step up now since (Diggs) and Nico are both out.”

Stroud added that he has full confidence in his remaining receivers and knows they'll take advantage of their opportunities.

“That means a lot,” Metchie said. “It shows that my teammates have a lot of faith and belief in me based off the work that they’ve seen me do. And for me, it just means that when I get out there, I’m just going to ride as hard for them as they do for me.”

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Fans of Houston sports and Houston food can now score tickets to The Tailgate, CultureMap's all-out party devoted to everyone’s favorite way to get in the gameday spirit. The event, presented by Verizon, goes down from 6-9 pm November 11 at 8th Wonder. Find out more about it here.

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