How Astros advanced metrics tell puzzling story about Houston's start
THE PATH FORWARD
17 April
Crunching the numbers. Composite Getty Image.
The Houston Astros, once known for their relentless offense, are struggling mightily at the plate in 2025. A lineup that ranked eighth in OPS and slugging percentage just last season now finds itself near the bottom of the league in key offensive metrics.
Through mid-April, the Astros rank 26th in OPS, 27th in slugging, and dead last in doubles. It’s a steep drop for a team that once terrorized opposing pitchers with a deep, disciplined lineup. Simply put, Houston’s days as a Top 10 offense appear to be in the rearview mirror.
Still, there are some signs of life beneath the surface—particularly from Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Peña. Advanced metrics suggest both hitters have been better than their traditional stats would indicate. Peña’s expected batting average (.320) ranks in the top 7% of the league, and Alvarez continues to scorch the ball, with elite exit velocity and an expected slugging percentage north of .500. Better results should be on the horizon for those two.
But outside of Alvarez and Peña, the story is less encouraging. Christian Walker and most of the roster haven’t been victims of bad luck—they just haven’t hit. Jose Altuve, while producing at the plate, may be overperforming. His expected stats lag far behind his actual results, suggesting regression could be coming.
The bright spot for Houston has been its pitching staff. The Astros currently boast the 10th-best ERA in MLB and rank second in strikeouts. Hunter Brown, in particular, looks like the emerging ace of the rotation—a welcome development for a team searching for stability.
Unfortunately, there may not be a quick fix for the lineup. General Manager Dana Brown has limited options. The farm system lacks top-end hitting prospects ready to make an impact, and acquiring a bat via trade or free agency would likely push the team over the luxury tax threshold—something ownership appears unwilling to do.
The broader concern is structural. Even with financial flexibility on the horizon as large contracts expire, the Astros remain reluctant to offer deals longer than three years or worth more than $60 million—unless you're Jose Altuve. In today’s market, that simply doesn’t get it done for All-Star caliber players in their prime.
With their window as a perennial World Series threat seemingly closing, Houston may face a tough new reality. The days of star players taking discounts to join a powerhouse are over. Right now, the Astros look like a team caught between eras—no longer elite, not quite rebuilding, and running out of ways to recapture their offensive magic.
That said, there’s still plenty of baseball to be played. A strong series against the Padres could significantly boost their overall numbers, especially with the sample size still relatively small.
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José Soriano and two relievers combined for a two-hitter and Oswald Peraza hit his first home run since a trade from the Yankees to lead the Los Angeles Angels to a 3-0 win over the Houston Astros on Sunday.
Soriano (10-9) allowed one hit and struck out eight in seven innings. Luis García allowed one hit in a scoreless eighth and Kenley Jansen threw a perfect ninth for his 25th save.
There were two outs in the fifth when Peraza connected off Hunter Brown (10-7) into the bullpen in right-center field to put the Angels up 1-0. His homer comes after his two-run single in the ninth inning Saturday helped Los Angeles to a 4-1 victory that snapped a three-game skid.
Yoan Moncada walked to start the eighth and scored on Mike Trout’s double that bounced off the wall in center field to make it 2-0. Taylor Ward walked before Luis Rengifo reached and Trout scored on an error by Lance McCullers Jr. when the pitcher overthrew first base.
Yordan Alvarez singled with no outs in the first and Soriano walked a batter in the second and sixth innings. The Astros didn’t get another hit until Ramón Urías doubled with one out in the eighth inning. Los Angeles outfielder Taylor Ward was injured trying to make a catch on that hit when he crashed face-first into the metal scoreboard in left field.
He was carted off the field holding a towel to the right side of his face. He was taken to a hospital by ambulance where interim manager Ray Montgomery said he would receive stitches to close the cut and be evaluated.
Brown allowed three hits and a run with five strikeouts in six innings. McCullers Jr. allowed three hits and two runs in his first relief appearance since 2018.
Key moment
The home run by Peraza.
Key stat
It’s the fifth time the Astros have been shut out this month.
Up next
LHP Yusei Kikuchi (6-9, 3.68 ERA) will start for Los Angeles in the series finale Monday against RHP Luis Garcia, who’ll make his return after sitting out since May 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
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