How Astros advanced metrics tell puzzling story about Houston's start
THE PATH FORWARD
17 April
Crunching the numbers. Composite Getty Image.
The Houston Astros, once known for their relentless offense, are struggling mightily at the plate in 2025. A lineup that ranked eighth in OPS and slugging percentage just last season now finds itself near the bottom of the league in key offensive metrics.
Through mid-April, the Astros rank 26th in OPS, 27th in slugging, and dead last in doubles. It’s a steep drop for a team that once terrorized opposing pitchers with a deep, disciplined lineup. Simply put, Houston’s days as a Top 10 offense appear to be in the rearview mirror.
Still, there are some signs of life beneath the surface—particularly from Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Peña. Advanced metrics suggest both hitters have been better than their traditional stats would indicate. Peña’s expected batting average (.320) ranks in the top 7% of the league, and Alvarez continues to scorch the ball, with elite exit velocity and an expected slugging percentage north of .500. Better results should be on the horizon for those two.
But outside of Alvarez and Peña, the story is less encouraging. Christian Walker and most of the roster haven’t been victims of bad luck—they just haven’t hit. Jose Altuve, while producing at the plate, may be overperforming. His expected stats lag far behind his actual results, suggesting regression could be coming.
The bright spot for Houston has been its pitching staff. The Astros currently boast the 10th-best ERA in MLB and rank second in strikeouts. Hunter Brown, in particular, looks like the emerging ace of the rotation—a welcome development for a team searching for stability.
Unfortunately, there may not be a quick fix for the lineup. General Manager Dana Brown has limited options. The farm system lacks top-end hitting prospects ready to make an impact, and acquiring a bat via trade or free agency would likely push the team over the luxury tax threshold—something ownership appears unwilling to do.
The broader concern is structural. Even with financial flexibility on the horizon as large contracts expire, the Astros remain reluctant to offer deals longer than three years or worth more than $60 million—unless you're Jose Altuve. In today’s market, that simply doesn’t get it done for All-Star caliber players in their prime.
With their window as a perennial World Series threat seemingly closing, Houston may face a tough new reality. The days of star players taking discounts to join a powerhouse are over. Right now, the Astros look like a team caught between eras—no longer elite, not quite rebuilding, and running out of ways to recapture their offensive magic.
That said, there’s still plenty of baseball to be played. A strong series against the Padres could significantly boost their overall numbers, especially with the sample size still relatively small.
We have so much more to cover. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
*ChatGPT assisted.
___________________________
Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!
https://houston.sportsmap.com/advertise
With the season’s first third in the books and the Astros showing signs of life, despite significant injuries, the front office faces a familiar question: what exactly should be prioritized at the trade deadline?
Much of that depends on the status of Yordan Alvarez. His return looms as a pivotal moment—especially in determining whether the Astros truly need to seek out another left-handed bat. But if Alvarez is back and productive, who exactly would that bat be replacing? The only spot where it would currently make sense is second base—unlikely unless Jose Altuve returns to his former position more regularly. Otherwise, it would take a collapse from Jake Meyers to make an outfield move viable.
So, the bigger need might lie on the mound.
With three-fifths of the original rotation on the shelf, is it realistic to expect McCullers to offset the losses? If he remains healthy, history suggests he could. A career ERA of 3.54 is solid enough, and that’s roughly what should be expected—if he can avoid setbacks. But "if" does a lot of work in that sentence.
More likely, the key to surviving Blanco and Hayden Wesneski's absence is Spencer Arrighetti. His return could make or break the back end of the rotation. At a minimum, Houston needs four semi-reliable arms to push into the summer months with some level of confidence. There’s hope Arrighetti could be back in July—though GM Dana Brown’s comments on the team’s flagship station didn’t inspire much clarity. Then again, he has already begun throwing, quietly getting back to work. And don't forget about Luis Garcia. Brown said the club expects him back in late July or early August, though his repeated setbacks should give the team cause for pause.
Meanwhile, the schedule sets up favorably. With upcoming series against the Rays, Pirates, Guardians, and White Sox, the Astros are in a soft spot. Add in the fact that they’ve taken seven of their last ten against AL West opponents, and it’s not a stretch to imagine Houston sitting atop the division by the time Yordan returns—especially if the offense continues its upward trajectory.
Over the last 30 days, the numbers speak to that resurgence:
- 10th in MLB in runs
- 5th in OPS
- 6th in slugging
And even some struggling members of the offense have shown improvement in May. Yainer Díaz, who began May hitting .208, is now up to .229 with a .735 OPS over the last month. Christian Walker has trended up slightly too, with a .218 average and .620 OPS over that same stretch after opening May below the Mendoza Line.
There’s progress. There’s uncertainty. And there’s just enough runway to believe the Astros could be in control of their fate again—if the right moves are made, and if just a couple of the maybes become sure things.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
*ChatGPT assisted.
___________________________
Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
