How Astros advanced metrics tell puzzling story about Houston's start

THE PATH FORWARD

How Astros advanced metrics tell puzzling story about Houston's start
Crunching the numbers. Composite Getty Image.

The Houston Astros, once known for their relentless offense, are struggling mightily at the plate in 2025. A lineup that ranked eighth in OPS and slugging percentage just last season now finds itself near the bottom of the league in key offensive metrics.

Through mid-April, the Astros rank 26th in OPS, 27th in slugging, and dead last in doubles. It’s a steep drop for a team that once terrorized opposing pitchers with a deep, disciplined lineup. Simply put, Houston’s days as a Top 10 offense appear to be in the rearview mirror.

Still, there are some signs of life beneath the surface—particularly from Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Peña. Advanced metrics suggest both hitters have been better than their traditional stats would indicate. Peña’s expected batting average (.320) ranks in the top 7% of the league, and Alvarez continues to scorch the ball, with elite exit velocity and an expected slugging percentage north of .500. Better results should be on the horizon for those two.

But outside of Alvarez and Peña, the story is less encouraging. Christian Walker and most of the roster haven’t been victims of bad luck—they just haven’t hit. Jose Altuve, while producing at the plate, may be overperforming. His expected stats lag far behind his actual results, suggesting regression could be coming.

The bright spot for Houston has been its pitching staff. The Astros currently boast the 10th-best ERA in MLB and rank second in strikeouts. Hunter Brown, in particular, looks like the emerging ace of the rotation—a welcome development for a team searching for stability.

Unfortunately, there may not be a quick fix for the lineup. General Manager Dana Brown has limited options. The farm system lacks top-end hitting prospects ready to make an impact, and acquiring a bat via trade or free agency would likely push the team over the luxury tax threshold—something ownership appears unwilling to do.

The broader concern is structural. Even with financial flexibility on the horizon as large contracts expire, the Astros remain reluctant to offer deals longer than three years or worth more than $60 million—unless you're Jose Altuve. In today’s market, that simply doesn’t get it done for All-Star caliber players in their prime.

With their window as a perennial World Series threat seemingly closing, Houston may face a tough new reality. The days of star players taking discounts to join a powerhouse are over. Right now, the Astros look like a team caught between eras—no longer elite, not quite rebuilding, and running out of ways to recapture their offensive magic.

That said, there’s still plenty of baseball to be played. A strong series against the Padres could significantly boost their overall numbers, especially with the sample size still relatively small.

We have so much more to cover. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

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The Astros beat the Brewers, 9-1. Photo by Jack Gorman/Getty Images.

Framber Valdez pitched seven strong innings and Jeremy Peña homered and drove in four runs as the Houston Astros defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 9-1 on Wednesday.

Houston earned just its second victory in seven games to snap Milwaukee’s three-game winning streak and leave both teams with .500 records. The Brewers were attempting to sweep a series from the Astros for the first time since 2012.

The Astros led 3-1 before Peña broke the game open by delivering a three-run homer to left off reliever Elvin Rodriguez with two outs in the sixth inning.

Valdez (2-4) struck out seven while allowing three hits, two walks and one run to earn his first win since the Astros’ March 27 season opener. He threw a season-high 101 pitches.

Milwaukee’s only run off Valdez came on Eric Haase’s fifth-inning homer, a 425-foot drive to center.

The Astros took a 1-0 lead off Quinn Priester (1-1) in the second inning as Jake Meyers hit a two-out single and scored on Zach Dezenzo’s double.

The Brewers have lost all 13 games this season in which their opponent scored first.

Five-time All-Star closer Josh Hader worked the ninth while pitching in Milwaukee for the first time since the Brewers traded him in 2022.

Key moment

The Astros led 1-0 and had runners on third and second with one out in the fifth when Peña hit a bouncer to third.

The throw home beat Dezenzo to the plate. Home plate umpire Chris Conroy initially ruled Dezenzo out, but the Astros challenged the call and replays showed the runner slid home ahead of Haase’s tag.

Key stat

Valdez has now pitched at least seven innings an MLB-leading 57 times since 2020.

Up next

The Astros host the Cincinnati Reds on Friday. Scheduled pitchers are right-hander Hunter Brown (5-1, 1.67) for the Astros and right-hander Nick Martinez (1-3, 4.19) for the Reds.

The Brewers visit the Tampa Bay Ray on Friday. Left-hander José Quintana (4-1, 2.83) will pitch for the Brewers.

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