Gambling recap
Week 6 was sick: With the injury bug hitting the NFL again
Jerry Bo
Oct 16, 2017, 3:00 pm
J.J. Watt's injury was followed up by two of the league's other big stars: Odell Beckham, Jr. and Aaron Rodgers. Bob Levey/Getty Images
In under a span of two weeks, the NFL has lost three of its "STAR" players to season-ending injuries. The hometown Texans losing J.J. Watt to a tibial plateau fracture was absolutely heartbreaking for the things he does on and off the field.
Aaron Rodgers broken collarbone comes at the worse time for him and the Packer faithful, as they entered the weekend 4-1 with the division lead and looking like a team to fear once its squad regained full health. Odell Beckham Jr. fractured his ankle, and whether you like him or not, he is electrifying and an instant gamechanger.
These types of players are the face of the NFL and a huge reason why the league sits on its own stage, or does it? There is some competition with the MLB playoffs and the NBA season tip-off tonight arriving at the perfect time when the buzz is at an all-time high with the era of "Super Teams" expanding. Yes, we have the Leveon Bell's and Zeke Elliot's of the world to keep us tuned in but can they be trusted to carry this league when they have their own off-field issues?
So when you think of the second tier of stars in the NFL that shoulder the brand, who do you really come up with? The veterans in Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan or maybe you go with the quiet Julio Jones and the sometimes too outspoken Antonio Brown?
The NFL is in desperate need of players like Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, and Derek Carr to make the jump to stardom. Just take this for example, the preseason release of schedules provided us the opportunity of the Thanksgiving special which is Josh Norman vs Beckham, and was something to look forward to as the nightcap after stuffing your face with anything and everything you can put gravy on. Is it really something to look forward too now? How exciting was the Giants vs. Broncos game Sunday night? A few days after Thanksgiving, The Pittsburgh Steelers host The Green Bay Packers which at one point, was thought to have big playoff implications being that it was later in the season. With Rodgers out, does this still have the same buzz? Do you get the picture? Maybe, the new wave of rookies can continue making some noise and give us something to look forward to as Houston's newly found leader Deshaun Watson has been nothing short of spectacular. In the same division down in Jacksonville, Leonard Fournette is making quite the impact of his own and is second in rush yards, trailing only the Chiefs breakout rookie, Kareem Hunt. With the spotlight seeming to be off the actual on-field product the league produces lately let's see who can step up and carry the coveted treasure that is the NFL.
Teams recieiving the most action Week 6:
Packers 85%
Broncos 84%
Texans 82%
Falcons 79%
Pats 78%
1 of the 5 covered. 3 losing outright as Favorites.
Week 6 dogs keep barking
In a trend that has been occurring all year long, the dogs dominated again. This week, the underdogs went 11-3 ATS, but even more impressive, nine of them won the game outright. Taking the points has been pivotal this season as underdogs are now 51-36-2 ATS. The astonishing number here is 38 out of the 51 underdogs have won the game straight up. So in other words, if you're feeling the underdog side is right, sprinkle a little on the money line as well.
The Dolphins and Giants were the most significant underdogs this week to win straight up.
Miami Pulled off an upset on the Road 20-17 as 13.5 point underdogs and cashing the money line at +700. Miami trailed in this game 17-0 and ran off 20 unanswered points capping off a spectacular second half in which the Falcons only had four offensive possessions. Maybe, the Falcons looked ahead prematurely to this weeks rematch of last years Superbowl with the Patriots. Whatever the case may be, blowing a 17 point lead at home to Jay Cutler is inexcusable.
In the Sunday night matchup, the hobbled Giants (+600) limped into Denver with a part-time receiving corp and stunned the Broncos. In a strength vs. weakness encounter, the Giants were able to run successfully on the leagues No. 1 rush defense. The unknown New York running back Orleans Darkwa tallied 117 yards on 21 carries, keeping the pressure off the passing game in which Eli Manning only had 19 attempts. Coming off a bye, with the extra time to prepare, vs. a team who had a meet and greet with its wide receivers prior to the kickoff, this loss has to sting for Denver. They will have a chance to bounce back this week vs. The Chargers, a team they have covered against 5 of the last 6 in the series and edged out 24-21 in week 1 and pushed as -3 point favorites.
Honorable mention- Bears (+5.5 ML +190) at Ravens, 27-24 OT
Totals
The Over/Under was 8-6 in Week 6.
The lowest total on the board was in the game we discussed earlier in the Giants vs. Broncos matchup with a total of 37.5. Much of this number was a direct result of the injuries to the Giants roster and the stout Denver defense. Things played the other way around, and the Giants scored 23 points and only allowed 10 on the road getting their first victory of the year.
The Highest Total was in the Saints vs. Lions game that sat at 50.5. New Orleans was able to surpass the point total on its own. In a game where the Saints scored 50-plus points, you would think Brees put up huge numbers. Brees was 21-of-31 for 186 yards with two touchdowns and two picks. With the team jumping out to such a big lead, the play calling slowed down for the Saints, capping the quarterback's big day: at halftime he was 21-of-31 for 186 yards and a TD. Instead, they leaned heavily on the ground game allowing Mark Ingram to breakout in his first game with Adrian Peterson out of his way. Ingram ran for 114 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries. The Saints defense also contributed their fair share to the total, scoring two defensive scores and creating five turnovers.
The over/under for 2017 now sits at 45-46-1.
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It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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