How one polarizing Astros move could optimize Houston's offense
EVERY LITTLE BIT COUNTS
28 April
Should the Astros sacrifice defense for offense? Composite Getty Image.
Through the first month of the season, the Houston Astros' offensive struggles are becoming impossible to ignore — especially when compared to division rivals like the Seattle Mariners.
Isaac Paredes currently leads the Astros with a .392 slugging percentage, which ranks just 88th overall in Major League Baseball. Jeremy Peña isn't far behind, sitting 93rd at .388. For context, not one Astro has cracked the .400 slugging mark, while the Mariners boast four players who have — though a few haven’t officially qualified for leaderboards.
Power outage
The power disparity is stark. The Mariners have already blasted 42 home runs this season — double the Astros’ total of just 21. Houston, in fact, ranks 27th in home runs, 26th in OPS, and 26th in slugging across all of Major League Baseball, dead last among AL West teams. Paredes is the only Astro with at least four home runs, while the Mariners have six such players.
The lineup issues are even deeper. Christian Walker and Yainer Diaz — both expected to provide significant offensive contributions — are batting under .200, placing them among the 22 worst averages in the league. Jose Altuve, typically a steady force, is also underperforming by his standards. His .310 on-base percentage is his lowest since the shortened COVID season, and he has only managed five extra-base hits thus far.
Should Joe Espada consider playing Altuve at second base more often?
With second base production sagging — Mauricio Dubón and Brendan Rodgers have failed to provide much punch — the Astros could face a difficult decision: increase Altuve’s time at second to open up opportunities for bats like Chas McCormick or Zach Dezenzo. While the organization has preferred to manage Altuve’s workload at second base carefully, their hand may be forced if the offense continues to sputter. At this point, another month of this and all bets are off.
On the pitching side, there’s some potential good news. Lance McCullers Jr. is nearing a return after an impressive rehab start and could rejoin the team during their series in Chicago. Meanwhile, Forrest Whitley has suffered another setback with a knee injury. A major question for Houston is which of the two — McCullers or Whitley — will be able to make a real impact this season. Given Whitley's struggles to stay healthy, McCullers appears the safer bet.
Don't forget the Astros' biggest goal for this season
Behind the scenes, the Astros’ front office remains focused on a bigger-picture goal: getting under the luxury tax threshold. With several large contracts set to come off the books after the season, Houston appears committed to resetting financially — even if that means enduring some growing pains in the short term.
For now, though, the Astros find themselves in unfamiliar territory: chasing the division both in the standings and at the plate.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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It’s the first place Houston Astros against the first place Los Angeles Dodgers as they open their latest head-to-head series. This is not a recording. The two most dominant powers in the sport over the last decade gather at Dodger Stadium this Independence Day weekend. The Astros have a sizable lead in pursuit of their eighth American League West championship in the last nine years. The Dodgers have an even more sizable lead as they chase their fourth straight National League West crown, which would be their 12th in 13 years. Each franchise has won two World Series in that time frame, each has lost two. All Astro and Dodger parties would sign off immediately on a 2025 World Series matchup. This three-game set carries no big picture significance, but every game counts, and it’s just fun seeing these two get after it. It would be more fun if the Astros had Yordan Alvarez available. Then again, the Dodgers won’t have Josh Fields.
Both continue to roll along despite rashes of injuries. When the Astros awoke May 24 their record sat at 26-25. Since then they have gone 26-10. That is a dominant stretch despite this clearly not being a dominant team. The still Alvarez-less offense is mediocre. So is the starting pitching apart from the one-two awesome punch that Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez have been. When Brown or Valdez has been the Astros’ starting pitcher this season, the team record is 25-9. With anyone else making the start, 27-26. They have been every bit as dynamic a duo so far in 2025 that Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole were for the Astros in 2019 when Verlander edged out Cole to win his third Cy Young Award. Brown is a lock to be named to his first American League All-Star team this Sunday. Valdez is worthy of a third consecutive selection but could get caught in a numbers squeeze. Eight or nine starting pitchers are picked for each league.
The Dodgers won’t face Brown this weekend, but will have to deal with Valdez on Saturday night. His mound counterpart will be Shohei Ohtani. Oooooooh! Framber didn’t give up a run in his last 13 innings over his last two starts, and over his last 10 outings has a super-spiffy 1.72 earned run average. The amazing Ohtani is easing back into pitching after his second Tommy John surgery. Ohtani has started three games, totaling just four innings. He has yet to throw 30 pitches in an outing. Saturday he probably will be allowed 30 to 40.
Arms race
While Friday’s outing isn’t remotely a make or break start for Lance McCullers, it does speak to a significant question the Astros hope to find a pleasing answer to over the remainder of the regular season. Who is their third starting pitcher in a playoff series? After Brown and Valdez there is simply no one who inspires confidence at this point. McCullers has been awful his last two times out, jacking up his ERA to 6.61 eight starts into his season. 20 walks issued in 32 2 /3 innings pitched is glaringly bad. McCullers is still reasonably in ramp up mode, but given his injury history along with performance concerns, the third starter spot can’t be considered his to lose. Spencer Arrighetti’s resume is thin but his return at the level he pitched at after the All-Star break last season would be massive. Colt Gordon and Brandon Walter have both done some nice fill-in work, but no one plausibly wants them starting what would be a do or die game if the Astros wind up in a game three of a best-of-three Wild Card series.
Historic achievement
Not as if it’s subplot or anything this weekend, but let’s call it notable that the two active career hits leaders in Major League Baseball share the field this weekend. Jose Altuve this week vaulted past Jeff Bagwell for second in Astros’ history behind Craig Biggio. Altuve enters the weekend 743 hits behind Biggio. He is no lock to catch him before Altuve’s five-year contract expires at the end of the 2029 season. Altuve will be 39 then. Biggio was 41 when he rapped his 3000th hit, then added 60 more before beginning the waiting game for election to the Hall of Fame.
Like Biggio got and presumably someday Altuve will get, Dodger first baseman Freddie Freeman will get the call from Cooperstown some day. Like Altuve, Freeman is 35 years old, has won a Most Valuable Player Award, one Gold Glove, and with his selection this week been named an All-Star nine times. Aaron Judge may change this in the next couple of years, but among active players only Mike Trout (by a long shot) has compiled more Baseball-Reference offensive Wins Above Replacement than Freeman (second) and Altuve (third).
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!
