The American League West race is not down to just Houston and Seattle, but it could be by this time next week. The Astros and Mariners start the weekend in a virtual tie at the top with the Rangers four and a half games back. While the Astros get the stripped down but still pesky Tampa Bay Rays this weekend at Minute Maid Park, the Mariners are home for the elite (but slumping) Phillies, the Rangers are home vs. the Red Sox.

The Rangers are already near dead in the Wild Card race, eight games out of the third spot with three other teams in front of them. If the Rangers lose ground to the Astros this weekend the Astros could then put the reigning World Series Champions to sleep by taking their series in Arlington next Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday. Conversely, if the Rangers hold or gain ground this weekend and then take two of three over the Astros as they did in Houston going into the All-Star break, the three-team derby is on. With the Astros and Rangers having split their 10 meetings so far in 2024, the season series and tiebreaker that goes with it rides on the outcome. But first things first…

Yusei Kikuchi makes his debut on Friday

It's not like when Randy Johnson, Justin Verlander, or Zack Greinke joined the Astros for a stretch drive, but Yusei Kikuchi makes his anticipated Astros’ debut Friday night in the series opener against the Rays. It’s evidently an anticipated disaster by many, judging by some of the outraged reaction excoriating General Manager Dana Brown for the trade that sent Joey Loperfido, Will Wagner, and Jake Bloss to Toronto. The Astros overpaid, especially in comparison to what the Dodgers gave up to acquire the better Jack Flaherty from the Tigers, but given market conditions the Astros did not egregiously overpay.

Kikuchi needs to deliver and there are reasons to be concerned, but off his (underwhelming) performance to date this season he is better than Spencer Arrighetti and better than Bloss. That makes for an incremental improvement to the Astros’ starting rotation. In the very tight AL West battle with Seattle every little bit matters more. Kikuchi has always had trouble giving up home runs, 17 of them allowed this season in 115 2/3 innings pitched, 27 in 167 2/3 innings last year when he had the lone season of his six in the majors with an earned run average below 4.41 (3.86). Working at Minute Maid Park against lineups largely made up of right-handed hitters one worries about pop flies winding up in the Crawford Boxes and hammered balls soaring over them. His strikeout-to-walk ratio this season is better than four-to-one, so there is quality stuff in the left arm. We’ll all be watching to see how much of it the Astros extract. Kikuchi missed no starts last year or this. Given the litany of pitcher injuries the Astros have endured, his durability alone is helpful. So long as he’s not awful. The Astros have separate stretches upcoming in which they play 18 days in a row and 16 days in a row.

As for the price paid, the odds clearly favor Loperfido not becoming a star. He grew popular quickly, but the sturm and drang over Loperfido and his paella pot being shipped out could make one think the Astros just traded young Lance Berkman. They did not. For openers, Loperfido is already 25 years old. That Loperfido hit .372 over his first 43 big league at bats means next to nothing. It certainly means no more (and probably means less) than his hitting .143 over his next 63 at bats, though that is no career death sentence. The issue is Loperfido is a whiff machine. 43 strikeouts in 106 at bats is brutal (plus two in his five at bats Blue Jays debut Wednesday). He also struck out by the truckload in the minor leagues. Loperfido’s power is good not special. Eight of his 13 early season homers for Sugar Land came at Albuquerque and Reno. Albuquerque’s elevation is higher than Denver’s, Reno’s is 4500 feet. Few talent evaluators think Loperfido is a better outfield prospect than Jacob Melton or Luis Baez who both remain in the Astros’ organization.

Will (son of Billy) Wagner making it here would have been a neat story, but he’s a marginal prospect. He’s shown little power, is not a quality defender, and is already 26 years old. Wagner probably projects as a part-timer on a good team. That has value but certainly doesn’t make him remotely untouchable. When (if?) Alex Bregman is gone as a free agent, third base opportunity knocks and Wagner could have been a candidate. He’s not a better candidate than Zach Dezenzo.

Including Jake Bloss is the biggest downside risk in the deal, but it’s not like he’s one of the top 10 pitching prospects in the game. Bloss got to the big leagues quickly because he pitched well, but more so because the Astros were in dire straits. No one thinks he’s Paul Skenes-lite. Still, if Jake Bloss-oms into a good mid-rotation starter that could cause much Astros’ remorse. Unless Kikuchi helps them to an eighth consecutive playoff appearance, and just maybe an eighth consecutive American League Championship Series appearance. At this point it’s a greater likelihood that the Astros miss the playoffs then go to yet another ALCS. But on the back end of this glorious era, this pushing in of some chips seeking to boost a shot at another run is certainly justifiable. They did not push in blue chips.

Lonely at the top

There is no team currently on pace to win 100 games this season. The last time no club cracked the century mark, the Angels had Major League Baseball’s best record at 98-64. Yeah, it’s been a while. It was 2014, the only postseason taste of Mike Trout’s career. The Royals then swept the Angels three straight in an American League Division Series.

*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.