James Harden is playing at an elite level once again. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
With nearly one quarter of the season in the books, the Rockets have resoundingly established themselves as one of the elite teams in the NBA. Through 20 games, the 16-4 Rockets are currently tied for their third best start in the past 30 years, trailing only the 1997 (18-2) and 1994 (19-1) teams. In case you may have been distracted by the attempt of a football team the Texans have strained to field, don’t worry. I’m here to help take a deeper look at what’s led to the Rockets incredible start to the season.
If you’re assuming that the obvious place to start is James Harden, you are correct. In last year’s MVP runner-up performance, Harden began the season averaging just over 26 points per game. Through twenty games this season, Harden leads the league in scoring, averaging 31.6 points per game. That includes a career high 56 point performance versus the Jazz. In addition he leads the league in assists, at 9.8 per game. And in true Harden form, he also leads the league in free throw attempts, heading to the charity stripe for an average of 9.3 attempts per game. It’s too early in the season to make a big deal out of anything, but Harden’s blistering start to the season--despite Chris Paul’s 14 game absence--should soon catch the eye of the sports world once football finally crowns a victor (I’m calling Eagles over Patriots).
The other obvious key to the Rockets’ great start has been not only the addition of Chris Paul, but more importantly his actual debut on the court. Although sidelined for 14 games, Paul has proved invaluable when he plays. In spite of his lowest career points average (10.8) for a season at the moment, Paul is on track for his third best season in assists (10.8). Again, a six game sample size is fairly small to consider in terms of potential impact, however there are two other factors to consider regarding Paul’s contributions to the team that paint a more compelling picture. The first is that the Rockets are undefeated with Paul in the lineup. The second is that the Rockets average 9 more points per game with Paul in the lineup than without. As I’ve mentioned before, it seems as though--at the moment--all of the concerns about Harden and Paul coexisting on the same court have been put to rest. It simply looks like a great point guard is jelling with a great shooting guard from here.
The third key to the Rockets’ success would have to be the increased level of production from 23-year-old center Clint Capela. Capela was always expected to be a productive member of the team, but no one could have expected the leap he would make this season. Capela finished last season averaging 12.6 points and 8.1 rebounds. So far this season Capela is averaging 13.3 points and 11.2 rebounds through 20 games. In addition, he leads the entire league in field goal percentage at 67.1% and ranks sixth in the league in player efficiency. Through a combination of those stats and a simple eye test, you can see that Clint Capela, unlike the failed experiment that was Dwight Howard, understands his role in the system and is absolutely thriving. Most promising out of all of Capela’s stat improvements is his free throw percentage. Here’s a quick perspective:
2015-2016: 37.9% free throw percentage
2016-2017: 53.1% free throw percentage
2017-2018: 67.1% free throw percentage
There are few better indicators of a player putting legitimate effort into improving their game than their free throw shot. Traditional and advanced metrics would suggest that Capela is essentially a frontcourt machine that runs the floor like a guard.
Behind yet another MVP-caliber performance from James Harden, the recent contributions from newcomer Chris Paul, and impressive development of Clint Capela, it seems inevitable that the Rockets look poised to perpetuate their white-hot start to the season.
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It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
*ChatGPT assisted.
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