Austin Rivers. Getty Images.
When you open free agency with the hopes of landing a landing star free agent like Jimmy Butler, it can be pretty deflating when you have to quickly pivot to a more conventional offseason. It doesn't necessarily mean that your efforts were unwarranted or that you can't still have a good offseason, but having to re-sell your fans on a summer where you are essentially running back the same nucleus can be extremely difficult.
On Houston's failed Jimmy Butler pursuit….
Saying that Rockets fans got their hopes up for a trio of James Harden, Jimmy Butler, and Chris Paul would be an understatement. In defense of the Rockets, the team has never been one to prioritize fan sentiment over it's ultimate goal: winning a championship. Everything Houston has done since Daryl Morey was hired on as general manager in 2007 has been about trying to maximize market inefficiencies to get an advantage over their chief rivals in order to win a title. Whether it's their play style, their shot selection, their relentless pursuit of stars, or their prudent cap management, Houston's front office has generally put public perception on the back burner as it does not pertain to their ultimate goal of hanging another banner in Toyota Center.
Does Houston care about optics? Of course they do. Morey would not do fifteen radio and television interviews a year if he didn't. Optics also matter when you're pursuing free agents or making hires. These are the primary optics that matter to Houston. You can criticize it or even be upset about it, but it's kind of hard to argue that being the most popular has ever won anyone a championship before.
So, should Houston have kept their pursuit of Butler a little quieter? Perhaps, but it's kind of irrelevant. The Rockets did not sacrifice any assets, lose out on any quality free agents, or handicap themselves in any way because of their efforts. Did the public nature of their pursuit unnecessarily get fanbase hopes up? Of course, but the only obligations a front office has to their fans is to be professional and put a winning product out on the floor.
There's a solid argument to be made that Houston may have to smooth some relationships over (Clint Capela particularly) due to how public their trade negotiations got towards the tail end of the chase. However, Houston does not play regular season basketball for another four months - they have plenty of time to resolve any bitter feelings with their starting center. NBA players are generally more professional and understanding of the business than they are given credit for.
Grading the signings Houston made
Gerald Green - 1 year, $2.6 million
Grade: B-
The hometown native has been a constant presence for the Rockets over the past two seasons. He's provided quality floor spacing, a stable locker room presence, and a decent fail-safe for guard and wing injuries. At the minimum, it's hard to be upset at the prospect of Houston bringing him back.
Danuel House - 3 years, $11.1 million
Grade: B+
One of the toughest questions going into this free agency this summer was assessing the value of Danuel House. The Rockets signed House from their single-affiliation NBA G League partner, Rio Grande Valley, in late November because the team was starved of wing-depth. House quickly became a major contributor, often logging over twenty minutes a night before becoming a starter in late December after Chris Paul injured his hamstring. The Rockets had to waive House in early December so they could sign Gary Clark, another G League standout that had snuck into the rotiation, to a multi-year deal.
House then returned to the team a few days later on a two-way contract. He would continue to start for Houston until his NBA days expired and he was forced to return to the G League. It would be another 25 games until House returned to the team. By then, Eric Gordon had permanently replaced House in the starting unit and the Rockets chose not to reverse course. House provided good minutes as a reserve wing that could defend multiple positions while providing the Rockets with athleticism they didn't have before. However, as Houston moved closer and closer to the playoffs, House's role in the rotation began to decrease. Against the Warriors in the playoffs, House was functionally cut out of the rotation after Game 1.
According to Kelly Iko of The Athletic, the Rockets discussed House possibly returning to the starting unit, which is a major positive development for Houston. Gordon did a decent job holding to fort down for Houston, but the Rockets have not had a starting small forward with significant size and athleticism to defend multiple positions since House left the team in January. Securing a young wing for multiple years on a relatively cheap contract is a significant plus for Houston. At the very least, House is a strong depth piece for the team.
Austin Rivers - 2 years, $4.3 million
Grade: A-
Getting Rivers to agree to a two-year, veteran's minimum contract is a bargain. Rivers' reportedly turned down multiple offers that would have played him more than double the contract he signed, but chose to return to Houston on a discount. He'd become an important rotation player for the Rockets, particularly when Chris Paul went down last season with a hamstring injury. Rivers is a good on-ball defender, decent three-point shooter, and good penetrator coming off the bench for Houston.
Rivers had said communicated several times over the past few months that he wanted to return to Houston. "I told my agent, 'This is the team I got to go to'," Rivers said back in January when he signed with the team. "Everything they emphasize are the things I like to do. I know I've found a home."
This deal may end up being one of the steals of the summer.
As a whole….
The Rockets have done a fine job working with their limitations to bring some of their main contributors back. It may not be as sexy as landing a big name free agent or signing lauded fresh faces, but Houston has never been a team that's signed someone new just for the sake of signing someone new. They've kept a lot of their resources dry and it hasn't quite become clear if they will hard cap themselves in an effort to use the full mid-level exception or bi-annual exception.
For now, it's safe to assume they've dipped into their taxpayer mid-level exception by signing Danuel House to a three-year deal and they have around $2.2 million remaining to sign a player to a multi-year deal and the bird rights to free agent swingman Iman Shumpert. If the Rockets choose to hard cap themselves and opt for the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception, they would likely not retain Shumpert as they would be too close to the apron.
The internal calculus Houston has to make now is whether or not whoever they can sign for their full mid-level exception and bi-annual would be worth losing the rights Shumpert. Houston could also pocket the rest of their exceptions (whichever ones they may be) and save it for mid-season signings.
Around 90% of Houston's theoretical playoff rotation has been filled out with Harden, Paul, Capela, Tucker, House, Gordon, Rivers, and Green all under contract for next season. With veteran big man Nene opting out of his deal, there is a hole the Rockets need to plug at backup center and it'll be fascinating to see how the Rockets choose to go about doing that. They also may want another strong and long perimeter defender to round out their rotation. They could use either:
- Their taxpayer mid-level and their minimums, avoiding a possible hard cap
- Use the rest of the full mid-level ($5.7 million), exposing themselves to the hard cap
With plenty of time remaining, it'll be interesting to see which path Houston chooses to go down.
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Through 20 games, the Houston Astros have managed just six wins and are in last place in the AL West.
Their pitching staff trails only Colorado with a 5.24 ERA and big-money new closer Josh Hader has given up the same number of earned runs in 10 games as he did in 61 last year.
Despite this, these veteran Astros, who have reached the AL Championship Series seven consecutive times, have no doubt they’ll turn things around.
“If there’s a team that can do it, it’s this team,” shortstop Jeremy Peña said.
First-year manager Joe Espada, who was hired in January to replace the retired Dusty Baker, discussed his team’s early struggles.
“It’s not ideal,” he said. “It’s not what we expected, to come out of the shoot playing this type of baseball. But you know what, this is where we’re at and we’ve got to pick it up and play better. That’s just the bottom line.”
Many of Houston’s problems have stemmed from a poor performance by a rotation that has been decimated by injuries. Ace Justin Verlander and fellow starter José Urquidy haven’t pitched this season because of injuries and lefty Framber Valdez made just two starts before landing on the injured list with a sore elbow.
Ronel Blanco, who threw a no-hitter in his season debut April 1, has pitched well and is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in three starts this season. Cristian Javier is also off to a good start, going 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in four starts, but the team has won just two games not started by those two pitchers.
However, Espada wouldn’t blame the rotation for Houston’s current position.
“It’s been a little bit of a roller coaster how we've played overall,” he said. “One day we get good starting pitching, some days we don’t. The middle relief has been better and sometimes it hasn’t been. So, we’ve just got to put it all together and then play more as a team. And once we start doing that, we’ll be in good shape.”
The good news for the Astros is that Verlander will make his season debut Friday night when they open a series at Washington and Valdez should return soon after him.
“Framber and Justin have been a great part of our success in the last few years,” second baseman Jose Altuve said. “So, it’s always good to have those two guys back helping the team. We trust them and I think it’s going to be good.”
Hader signed a five-year, $95 million contract this offseason to give the Astros a shutdown 7-8-9 combination at the back end of their bullpen with Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly. But the five-time All-Star is off to a bumpy start.
He allowed four runs in the ninth inning of a 6-1 loss to the Braves on Monday night and has yielded eight earned runs this season after giving up the same number in 56 1/3 innings for San Diego last year.
He was much better Wednesday when he struck out the side in the ninth before the Astros fell to Atlanta in 10 innings for their third straight loss.
Houston’s offense, led by Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, ranks third in the majors with a .268 batting average and is tied for third with 24 homers this season. But the Astros have struggled with runners in scoring position and often failed to get a big hit in close games.
While many of Houston’s hitters have thrived this season, one notable exception is first baseman José Abreu. The 37-year-old, who is in the second year of a three-year, $58.5 million contract, is hitting 0.78 with just one extra-base hit in 16 games, raising questions about why he remains in the lineup every day.
To make matters worse, his error on a routine ground ball in the eighth inning Wednesday helped the Braves tie the game before they won in extra innings.
Espada brushed off criticism of Abreu and said he knows the 2020 AL MVP can break out of his early slump.
“Because (of) history,” Espada said. “The back of his baseball card. He can do it.”
Though things haven’t gone well for the Astros so far, everyone insists there’s no panic in this team which won its second World Series in 2022.
Altuve added that he doesn’t have to say anything to his teammates during this tough time.
“I think they’ve played enough baseball to know how to control themselves and how to come back to the plan we have, which is winning games,” he said.
The clubhouse was quiet and somber Wednesday after the Astros suffered their third series sweep of the season and second at home. While not panicking about the slow start, this team, which has won at least 90 games in each of the last three seasons, is certainly not happy with its record.
“We need to do everything better,” third baseman Alex Bregman said. “I feel like we’re in a lot of games, but we just haven’t found a way to win them. And good teams find a way to win games. So we need to find a way to win games.”