Looking for Long Shots
A detailed look at every horse in the Preakness Stakes field
May 15, 2019, 10:37 pm
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The Preakness Stakes on Saturday will lack star power. The horse that finished first in the Derby won't be here. The horse that was gifted the Derby via DQ won't be here. But that does not mean the race lacks intrigue. Can War of Will bounce back from his controversial role in the Derby to run well? Is Improbable the right favorite? Which new shooter will have the best chance? Let's take a look at the field:
1) War of Will (4-1)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Race record: 9 starts, 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third.
What he has done: Had two dominating stakes wins early in the year at Fair Grounds, and was at the center of the controversy in the Derby when he was cut off by Maximum Security. He did not finish poorly after that, but never looked like a winner. Will likely take a lot of action.
Status: Contender, but will fault no one for tossing him.
2) Bourbon War (12-1)
Trainer: Mark Hennig
Jockey: Irad Ortiz
Race record: 5-2-1-0
What he has done: Lightly raced horse finished fourth in the Florida Derby last out, but that race was won by Maximum Security (who was DQ'd in the Derby) who walked on the front end that day. It gave the closers no chance. Code of Honor ran third in the Florida Derby and ran well in the Kentucky Derby. So did second-place finisher Bodexpress. He is bred to be a champ, is well rested and should be sitting on a big effort.
Status: Live long shot and our key horse.
3) Warriors Charge (12-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Race record: 5-2-0-3
What he has done: Since he figured out how to be a front runner, he has buzz sawed two fields at Arkansas. This is a big step up but he should be the controlling pace of the race.
Status: Fringe player
4) Improbable (5-2)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Race record: 6-3-2-0
What he has done: He never really runs a bad race, but he also has been pretty pedestrian as a 3-year-old. He finished fifth in the Derby, but was one of the few who did not have trouble.
Status: Favorite, but vulnerable.
5) Owendale (10-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Race record: 8-3-1-1
What he has done: Won the Lexington Stakes at a nice price with a solid late move. Prior to that, however he had a fairly nondescript career. Distance seems to be a question for him but further improvement puts him in the mix.
Status: Contender to get a piece of the trifecta.
6) Market King (30-1)
Trainer: D Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Jon Court
Race record: 8-1-1-2
What he has done: Not much. Has only a maiden win to his credit and his best effort was a third in the Rebel. Still, hopeless looking Lukas horses like this have a habit of showing up on the big stage.
Status: Should be a throw-out but will use on the bottom of tris.
7) Always Mining (8-1)
Trainer: Kelly Rubley
Jockey: Daniel Centeno
Race record: 12-7-0-1
What he has done: Local star has reeled off six in a row at nearby Laurel Park and been extremely impressive doing it. This is a big step up, but it is not like this is a scary group. Could easily be a big factor and should be near the early lead.
Status: Contender.
8) Signalman (30-1)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez
Race record: 7-2-2-2
What he has done: Was a promising 2-year-old, but has just been OK at 3. Should be sitting on a decent effort but would be a surprise if he won it.
Status: Fringe player; use in exotic wagers.
9) Bodexpress (20-1)
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: John Velazquez
Race record: 6-0-3-0
What he has done: Qualified for the Derby by finishing second in the Florida Derby, then hung around for a while before throwing in the towel after he was bothered.
Status: Looks to be a pace factor but hard to see him impacting the finish.
10) Everfast (50-1)
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Race record: 10-1-1-1
What he has done: Late entrant finished second in the Holy Bull in February at 128-1. Besides that? Nothing. Love his trainer in Triple Crown races but the horse looks hopeless.
Status: Not exactly aptly named. Be surprised if he has any impact.
11) Laughing Fox (20-1)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana
Race record: 7-3-0-0
What he has done: An all or nothing type, his last two have been solid, finishing right behind the fake Derby winner and taking down a decent field at Oaklawn. May be coming around at the right time.
Status: Contender at a price.
12) Anothertwistafate (6-1)
Trainer: Blaine Wright
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Race record: 6-3-2-0
What he has done: A monster on synthetic surfaces, he has a pair of seconds on traditional dirt. Solid, consistent type who never really runs a bad race but does not seem good enough to win this.
Status: Has to bus used but hard to see him winning.
13) Win Win Win (15-1)
Trainer: Michael Trombetta
Jockey: Julien Pimentel
Race record: 7-3-2-1
What he has done: Missed hitting the board for the first time in the Derby. Liked him as a long shot that day, and he split the field. The fact that he wheels right back is a good sign.
Status: Live long shot who has a big chance.
The bottom line
Check back Friday for some plays, but I like Bourbon War quite a bit to be a factor. I also think Always Mining, Win Win Win and Laughing Fox should be in the mix as well.
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Texans HC DeMeco Ryans reveals what he values most at scouting combine
Feb 28, 2025, 3:51 pm
Now that spring training is officially underway, we're able to make some observations about how the Astros 2025 roster is taking shape.
Houston's starting rotation is basically set, but we got to see Hayden Wesneski make his first start in an Astro uniform. Wesneski pitched two innings against the Mets on Tuesday, allowing one run with three strikeouts.
He's working on a curveball that's a new pitch for his repertoire, and he saw some success with it. Hopefully, adding this pitch will help keep batters off balance (especially left-handed hitters) and help elevate his game. Which is nothing new for the Astros, who have a history of helping pitchers get to the next level.
Forrest Whitley also looked good, pitching a clean inning and finishing off his final hitter with a 97 mph fastball. Whitley finally realizing his potential in the big leagues could be a huge deal for the Astros, as they're looking to lighten the workload for Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader this season.
Hader in particular could benefit from this adjustment, as he was much worse when pitching in non-save situations last season. An easy fix with Hader could be trying to limit his workload to mostly save situations. That way, you get the most out of him and achieve the goal of him pitching less innings this year.
The Houston Chronicle's Matt Kawahara wrote about Hader's struggles pitching when games were tied or Houston was trailing.
“Hader converted 34 of 38 save chances but faced more batters in non-save situations (142) than in save situations (136), a sharp pivot from his previous few seasons. Opponents slugged .271 against him in save situations and .411 in non-save situations, while his ERA was more than two runs higher (4.98) in the latter.”
And while it's easy to say “suck it up, you're getting paid a fortune to pitch,” if he's not having success in those situations, and you're looking to back off his workload, this seems like an obvious way to pivot. He's under contract for another four seasons, so the Astros are right to want to be careful with him.
Astros plate discipline
Manager Joe Espada has made it very clear that he would like his offense to see more pitches this season. And we're seeing a stark difference in the approaches from the newly acquired players (Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker) and Houston's returning hitters.
Keep in mind, Paredes was first in pitches per plate appearance last season, and Walker was 10th.
So it shouldn't come as a surprise that Paredes and Walker both worked a full count in their first at-bats on Tuesday, while Mauricio Dubon, Yainer Diaz, and Chas McCormick swung at every pitch in their first at-bats.
Hopefully the new blood in the clubhouse will rub off on the rest of the Astros lineup, which is full of free swingers, especially with Alex Bregman now playing for Boston.
Which is why we're so excited about Cam Smith's early results. While we're super pumped about his two home runs on Tuesday, we're equally impressed that he walked in his first two at-bats this spring. If anyone would naturally be jumping out of their shoes to make a strong first impression, you would think it's the guy that was traded for Kyle Tucker. But Smith was patient, and he was rewarded for it.
What is Dana Brown saying privately?
Just last offseason, Brown was talking about extending Tucker and Bregman while also signing Hader to a shocking 5-year, $95 million deal. Plus, the team signed Jose Altuve to a whopping $150 million extension. Fast-forward one year and Tucker has been traded, Bregman left in free agency, and Ryan Pressly was dealt in a salary dump. Safe to say, his vision for the ball club has changed drastically in one season. Welcome to baseball economics under Jim Crane!
We're just scratching the surface on everything covered in the video above. Be sure to hit play to watch the full conversation!
The countdown to Opening Day is on. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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