TEXANS BY THE NUMBERS

A shocking look at Bill O'Brien's coaching record against top-level quarterbacks

Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

When I think of Bill O'Brien I often think back to a movie we've all seen but may not admit to - the 1996 film Matilda. Matilda's dad (played by Danny DeVito) must have had a profound impact on O'Brien as a young man. I imagine a then-27-year-old Bill sitting down and hearing the line that seemingly guides him to this day, which is when Matilda's dad looks down on her and tells her: "I'm smart, you're dumb; I'm big, you're little; I'm right, you're wrong, and there's nothing you can do about it."

It's all about perspective. As we all know, DeVito is a micro man and he seized his one opportunity to accurately use the "big-little" line on his young, tiny co-star. I get the sense Bill's perspective is that he thinks he's the dad in this scenario and the rest of the league is sweet little Matilda, but a detailed look into the list of quarterbacks he's beaten as a head coach loudly suggests that he's more likely to be the one with the little blue dress and red ribbon in his hair.

I recently argued that Bill O'Brien has only beaten two quarterbacks that (in most people's minds) would be considered "elite." That would be Drew Brees and Andrew Luck. However, since the term "elite" is so subjective, I instead decided to state my case using Total QBR (Quarterback Rating), a widely accepted measuring stick for individual quarterback performance.

I took a look at every QB Bill O'Brien has beaten since the start of his head coaching career in 2014 and their corresponding QBR. Since his career spans five seasons and each quarterback's performance varies year to year, I used the QBR for the corresponding season in which that QB lost to the Texans. Per ESPN.com (the creators of Total QBR), a rating of 50 is considered "Average" while a rating of 75 and above is considered "Pro Bowl Level" (Keep that in mind). I've divided the results into four tiers to give a better idea of the 'quality' of quarterback play O'Brien has had most of his success against. For added perspective, I've also included what BOB's win-loss record is against each tier. This will give the complete picture of how much success he's had against every QB he's faced, based on which tier they fell into at the time.

Not counting the first two games of the 2019 season, his career win-loss record (including postseason) is 43-41. Does that not perfectly sum up what the Texans have seemingly always been, the Kings of Average? Well what's NOT average is his record against high quality quarterbacks. Take a look.

Note*: Each QBR is season-based, so some quarterbacks (i.e. divisional foes) will be listed numerous times since they've been beaten across multiple seasons.

TIER 4 (<50 Total QBR - The "Below Average" Class): Record vs. Tier 4 level QBs: 20-10

Connor Cook - 14.7

EJ Manuel - 26.0

Jay Cutler - 28.1

Robert Griffin III - 28.7

Blaine Gabbert - 34.0

Brock Osweiler - 34.5

Brian Hoyer - 38.7

Kevin Hogan - 39.4

Derek Carr - 42.1

Case Keenum - 44.5

Andy Dalton - 44.8 in 2017

Matt Hasselbeck - 45.1

Sam Darnold - 45.9

Alex Smith - 46.9 in 2018

Josh Allen - 49.8

Zach Mettenberger - 33.7 in 2014, 20.3 in 2015

Blake Bortles - 28.0 in 2014, 43.0 in 2016, 43.4 in 2018 (Really Jags, you extended this guy?!)

Summary: Bill O'Brien makes sweet, soft love to rookies, broken things, and happy-just-to-hold-a-clipboard guys. Oh, and Andy Dalton.

​TIER 3 (50.0 - 59.9 Total QBR - The "Just Good Enough to Keep a Starting Job" Class): Record vs. Tier 3 level QBs: 8-8

Baker Mayfield - 51.2

Blake Bortles - 51.4 in 2015

Andy Dalton - 52.3 in 2016

Dak Prescott - 55.2

Jameis Winston - 57.2

Marcus Mariota - 59.1 in 2016, 58.6 in 2017, 53.2 in 2018

Summary: O'Brien can generally handle the over-hyped but still-developing young QBs. And of course, Andy Dalton.

TIER 2 (60.0 - 69.9 Total QBR - The "Flashes of Greatness" Class): Record vs. Tier 2 QBs: 7-18

Alex Smith - 60.8 in 2016

Ryan Fitzpatrick - 62.0

Matt Stafford - 65.2

Andrew Luck - 65.9 in 2016, 69.6 in 2018

Drew Brees - 66.8 (*Sustained* Greatness)

Joe Flacco - 68.6

Summary: So Bill CAN beat some guys that aren't total trashcans, but ratings under 70 suggest they weren't at their best in those seasons, or that even their best is still not "Pro Bowl Level".

Hmm, no Andy Dalton?

TIER 1 (>70.0 Total QBR - The "Cream of the Crop, Best of the-What?!" Class): Record vs. Tier 1 level QBs: 1-5

Andy Dalton - 72.5 in 2015

END. BLEEPING. LIST.

Summary: The Red Rifle?! Put some respect on that man's name! Making Katy proud!

Conclusion: Andy Dalton is the only quarterback Bill O'Brien has EVER beaten with a QBR over 70 for that particular season in which he won. Andy. Freakin'. Dalton.

Not so good

Interestingly enough you may notice that not one single quarterback on the list was considered a "Pro Bowl Level" quarterback when O'Brien faced him. No, your mighty leader of the Texans has never beaten the likes of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, or Matt Ryan, just to name a few.

Other things of note.. let's take a look at how my original argument for Brees and Luck fared. The 66.8 QBR for Brees is tied for his second lowest rating since 2009, so the Texans did beat him but clearly in a year where he wasn't at his best (but let's be fair, 66.8 is still very respectable). As for the late, great Andrew Luck, his 69.6 QBR from last season is his best, but the win O'Brien got to claim? Hardly a win at all. You may recall a first time head coach (looking at you, Frank Reich) gift-wrapping that game in OT for the Texans. If not for that, last season's version of Luck would be removed from this list, further strengthening the point.

That being said, his 65.9 rating in 2016 is his second best career rating, so that win over him is legit.

Here's where it gets ugly. Of all the QBs O'Brien has beaten, only three of those teams went on to win their division in that respective season. That is to say, three out of his 42 regular season wins (a whopping 7.14%) were against eventual playoff-bound teams in his five seasons as head coach. And only four other teams beyond that were able to snag a wildcard (that's still only 16.7%). As for the postseason, you may remember his only win being against rookie Connor Cook who, if you refer back to Tier 4, is your winner for worst QBR of any quarterback O'Brien has ever faced, with a dismal 14.7.

The bottom line

For a look at how the above mentioned quarterbacks fared against their peers for each of the past five seasons, here's a quick glance at who all cracked the top 10 in Total QBR in their respective season that they were beaten by BOB.

2014- Joe Flacco - 8th in Total QBR

2015- Andy Dalton - 3rd, Ryan Fitzpatrick - 7th, Drew Brees - 10th

2016- Andrew Luck - 7th, Matt Stafford - 8th, Alex Smith - 10th

2018- Andrew Luck - 5th

That's a grand total of eight. And only ONE of them cracked the top 3 in a season (we see you, Andy). So if last year's 11-win season felt phony, it turns out that only 1 of their 11 wins was against a top 10 QB that season, and that was the (not) win over Andrew Luck in OT.

As a Texans fan, this is a hard pill to swallow. To see so glaringly, that the leader of your team, your organization really, is the little girl with a red ribbon and psychokinetic abilities. The silver lining? If he's willing to accept who he is, then maybe he can tap into those superpowers and magically navigate the Texans to their first AFC Championship game this season. Either that, or hope he faces Andy Dalton 18 times.

NFL Week 10

NFL Week 10: Good, bad and ugly

Phil Hoffman, Baltimore Ravens Team Website

Week 10 of the NFL brought us some good games. 11 of the 13 game splayed were decided by one possession (touchdown and two point conversion) or less. Good football and parity is what the league wants. Here's what I observed this week:

The Good

-Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is the clear cut league MVP after his performance this past weekend against the Bengals.He was 15/17 for 223 yards and three touchdowns passing to go with his seven carries for 65 yards and a highlight reel-worthy touchdown rushing. The spin move he made on that touchdown run looked like a Madden glitch.

-Including Monday night's OT comeback, Seattle's Russell Wilson is tied for the most game wining drives since entering the league in 2012 with 28 (the Lions' Matthew Stafford also has 28). Here's yet another reason why Wilson is an MVP candidate this season. Look around him and notice he's not working with a whole lot of top notch talent.

-Cardinals wide receiver Christina Kirk had himself a game in their 30-27 loss to the Bucs. Kirk ended his day with six catches for 138 yards and three touchdowns, including a 69 yards touchdown catch that tied the game at 20 in the 3rd quarter. Kirk was a top recruit coming out of high school and did some good things at Texas A&M, but this was a perhaps his breakout performance in the NFL for the former 2nd round pick. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray will need a him moving forward if the duo hopes to succeed.

The Bad

-Lions' wide receiver Kenny Golladay caught a pass near the end of their 20-13 loss to the Bears and tried to hurry things along by spotting the ball for the refs. Nothing uncommon about what he did...except he moved the ball up a few yards and the refs did nothing about it! Just another reason why officiating has been so terrible as of late.

-Titans left tackle Taylor Lewan is having a bad year. Even after missing four games due to suspension, he's still leading the team in penalties. He singlehandedly killed their first possession of the second half with back to back penalties forcing them to punt. To his credit, he totally owned it when the media came in the locker room after the game.

-Panthers' running back Christian McCaffrey is an amazing talent at the running back position. However, he isn't a bruiser of a runner. He's more of a finese guy. So asking him to bang it inside from the 2-yard line with no timeouts left and the game on the line is not ideal. How about coming up with a more creative way to get him the ball in space? They went on to lose to the Packers 24-16. This and the failed two-point conversion on their previous touchdown were both baffling calls.

The Ugly

-The Rams will be without offensive lineman Rob Haverstein for a week and Brian Allen for the remainder of the season with injuries. Things are getting worse by the minute for the Rams who came into this season off a Super bowl appearance.

-The Chiefs lost their leading sacker Emmanuel Ogbah for the season with a torn pectoral muscle. Losing to the Titans was one thing, but losing a talented pass rusher for the rest of the season as bad as their defense has been is icing on a poop cake.

-Former #2 overall pick Charles Rogers passed away at the age of 38 due to liver failure. Rogers' life was a tragic tale of a talented guy who wasn't ready for what his talent gave him in the way of fame and fortune. He was selected one pick ahead of Texans' all time great Andre Johnson as the two were said to be the best two receivers in the 2003 draft.

Week 10 of NFL action was capped off by a battle in the NFC West between the 49ers and the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. With only two games decided by more than one possession, we were trewated to another good weekend of football. The '72 Dolphins popped their champagne somewhere after the 49ers lost. Division races became a tad more clear. Some became more crowded. But overall, it was another good week of football. Weeks like this one are why people are hooked on football and can't get enough.

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