A closer look at Houston's winning manager
AJ Hinch continues to be the driving force of Astros success
Jun 3, 2019, 6:55 am
A closer look at Houston's winning manager
With the win on Tuesday night against the Chicago Cubs, AJ Hinch hit a milestone; 500 managerial wins. While that doesn't have him climbing to the top of the all-time manager win chart just yet, it does keep him moving up the list of best Astros managers.
The 2019 team is battered and beaten right now with injuries, yet still, they keep winning. Undeniably a lot of that has to do with the team playing well and executing on the field, but it also takes a captain who can overcome adversity to keep the team's confidence high.
Hinch took over the helm for the Astros in 2015, taking over a historically bad team that was just a year removed from three consecutive 100-plus loss seasons. AJ could have taken the first year with his new team to take things slow and learn more about the players and pile up small improvements to build on for future years. Instead, he had the Astros in the playoffs in that first year, a pleasant surprise for many despite the early exit.
2016 wasn't quite as successful, missing the playoffs but still posting a record above .500 on the season. Then, the year we all remember, 2017 was the magical year of Houston's first World Series win, the highlight of Hinch's career so far. 2018 was another impressive year, making it to the ALCS with nagging injuries before eventually being outed by the Red Sox. All of this makes it no surprise that Houston locked him up for several years, giving him an extension through the 2022 season.
Now in 2019, Hinch has Houston out to a hot 40-20 start, making the Astros one of the best teams in the league even with injuries, and definitely the best team when healthy.
Speaking of that hot 40-20 start; we haven't even made it to the halfway point of the season, but it's fair to be thinking about the potential Manager of the Year contenders. There are some other candidates like the Twins' Rocco Baldelli, who is making a huge splash in his first year as a manager, and Aaron Boone who has willed the Yankees to a division lead while also being decimated by injuries, but Hinch deserves to be very much in those conversations.
Not only has Hinch worked through significant injuries to keep his team on top of their division, but they also currently flirt with the best record in baseball. The team is riddled with great talent that Hinch would probably say make it an easier task than most, but taking some of these younger guys that are making the leap from AAA to the majors and getting them to contribute immediately is the testament of a great manager.
Let's address the elephant in the room; Hinch has a ring, and that should easily be grounds for him being the best manager in Houston's history since he's alone in that feat. Still, there are some other statistics that he can and likely will improve on that will solidify him as the undisputed best manager in an Astros uniform so far.
First, let's talk about regular season performance. Hinch is 414-294 all time so far, putting him third on the list in wins behind Larry Dierker (1997-2001) who sits with 435 and Bill Virdon (1975-1982) who had 544. Hinch not only boasts the best winning percentage of the three at .584, but he will also almost certainly pass up Dierker for second place this year and Virdon before his contract runs out in 2022. I would say that has him a lock as being the best in this category by the time all is said and done.
Then, there's postseason performance. Hinch currently sits at 18-14 in his postseason career with the Astros, while Virdon went 4-6 and Dierker went 2-12. There's a lot more behind those records that I won't get into now, but for the sake of simplicity, that puts Hinch ahead in this category.
That leaves awards. The Manager of the Year award started in 1983, so Virdon was not able to win one in his tenure with Houston. Two managers since the awards' inception have received it for Houston, Hal Lanier in 1986, and Larry Dierker 1998. While Hinch has come very close, coming in second in voting in 2015, third in 2017, then fourth in 2018, he has not yet taken home that award. As mentioned before, he's currently well in the running for that award again in 2019, but even if he never gets one, the number of wins and playoff success he's had for the Astros should cement him as one of the greatest managers ever.
So, while recent injuries to this 2019 team have created some mild panic and concern, AJ Hinch has shown that a great manager (along with a great team) can sustain a little adversity and still come out ahead over a long baseball season. Even more exciting, he's also shown what a manager of his caliber can do with a healthy, star-studded lineup, which we should get to see once again in a few weeks when the team is healthy again.
Isaac Paredes has been a steady force in the middle of the Astros’ order, but a tweaked hamstring suffered during Thursday’s win over the White Sox may force Houston to recalibrate, again.
If Paredes misses time, the most logical shuffle would see Jose Altuve sliding back to second base, with Mauricio Dubón stepping in at third. It’s a reasonable patch. But internally, there’s also some intrigue around whether Cam Smith—currently thriving in right field—could slide back to his original position on the infield. The idea isn’t without merit; Smith is the club’s best offensive option at third in Paredes’ absence. But defensively, it’s hard to justify moving him right now. Smith made several standout plays in the Chicago series, reinforcing just how important his glove has become to the Astros’ outfield defense. One thing is for sure, the Astros can't afford to play both Dubon and Brendon Rodgers in the infield regularly. The offense would take a huge hit.
Timing, however, might be on Houston’s side. The next stretch of games features the Twins, Athletics, and Angels—three teams the Astros can beat even while navigating lineup instability. It helps that Yainer Diaz and Christian Walker are showing signs of life at the plate. Diaz, in particular, has been red-hot, posting an OPS north of 1.200 over the past week. Walker is batting over .300 during that same span, giving the Astros enough firepower to survive short-term turbulence.
Elsewhere, the outfield presents its own set of choices. Jacob Melton has shown enough in the field to warrant a serious look as Chas McCormick’s replacement when he returns from injury. He’s still searching for consistency at the plate, batting under .200 in his first 10 big league games. But his arm and left-handed bat give manager Joe Espada a little more lineup flexibility—especially with Yordan Alvarez still out and the offense skewing right-handed.
For now, the Astros have room to adjust. But if Paredes ends up missing significant time, they’ll need more than just a few temporary solutions to keep their momentum going.
There's so much more to cover! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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