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Amidst Melo Drama, Rockets find a groove with shortened rotation

Amidst Melo Drama, Rockets find a groove with shortened rotation
Mike D'Antoni has shortened the bench. Harry How/Getty Images

Amidst constant Carmelo Anthony chatter, the Houston Rockets have found themselves playing good basketball again for the first time since the 2017-18 season came to a close. Good is relative of course, as the Rockets aren’t nearly the same basketball team that stepped off the court in May. However, since their 1-5 start, they have won 5 out of their last 7 games (capped off by an impressive 109-99 win over the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday) and have shown minor glimpses of last year’s team.

 

So, how are they doing this? A few reasons.

Defensive identity coming into shape

Since James Ennis returned from injury and was placed into the starting lineup, the Rockets saw huge dividends defensively almost immediately. It's not as if Ennis is a lockdown defender, but he's miles above Carmelo Anthony - who Houston had to start in Ennis’ absence. The Rockets were allowing a blistering 111.0 points per 100 possessions when Anthony was on the floor.

To put that into perspective, that's equivalent to the 26th ranked defense in the NBA. When Anthony is off the floor, the Rockets only allow 103.2 points per 100 possessions - which would be equivalent to the third best defense in the NBA. Now it's important to note that Anthony wasn't the source to all of Houston's problems. However, he certainly wasn't the solution to many of them either.

In addition to swapping Ennis for Anthony, rookie Gary Clark is seeing a huge surge in minutes. The 6'8” swingman has been a stud defensively and slowly gaining Houston's trust more and more, including coach D'Antoni.

Shots are starting to fall

As of November 10th, the Rockets had the worst field goal percentage in the league (41.3%) along with the 28th ranked 3-PT percentage (31.7%). It was unlikely they would shoot this poorly for very long.

On Sunday, GM Daryl Morey talked about how the Rockets liked the quality of the shots they were getting, but just weren't making them. After defeating the Indiana Pacers with an offensive explosion, James Harden echoed the same sentiment.

In Houston's last two games, they've shot 51.7% from the field and 39.3% from 3-PT range (2nd and 7th in that span respectively). James Harden and Chris Paul have started to round into form after slow starts and it's fueled good offensive performances. It'll be interesting to see how long this progression to the mean lasts, but I'm sure the Rockets welcome as much of it as they can.

Shrunken rotation

And finally, possibly the biggest reason for Houston's turnaround is the deliberate shrinking of the rotation. Most people view a short rotation in the regular season to be a bad thing, but for the Rockets, it's a very welcome change. Houston is a very thin team this season and after their first 8-9 guys, there is a noticeable drop-off in quality of production.

The Rockets viewed Anthony, Michael-Carter Williams, and Marquese Chriss as worthwhile gambles, but after 11 regular season games, it's clear why their former teams jettisoned them. Head coach Mike D'Antoni has effectively eliminated them from the rotation and it has since led to a leaner, more effective team. By cutting the fat in negative minutes out of the rotation, the Rockets are able to give themselves a higher percentage chance of winning games.

It's worth questioning the long-term effects of the shortened rotation (fatigue, injuries, etc…), but with the Rockets just a game below .500, they have to be thinking with a short-term perspective until they right the ship. D'Antoni has been a coach criticized for his use of short rotations in the past, but it's hard to question when you look at his alternative options.

The eventual returns of Gerald Green (illness - likely the first to return), Nene Hilario (calf strain), and Brandon Knight (knee) should help, but Houston will have to address it's depth issues at some point in the season. They have most of their taxpayer mid-level exception remaining to spend on players who get bought out or waived. Additionally, they have all of their first round picks moving forward if they decide to make a more significant move.

What matters is the Rockets are on the right track. Questions of minutes distribution and depth can be resolved when Houston has the luxury to think long-term.

 

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Is leadership the main problem for Houston? Composite Getty Image.

With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.

While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.

Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.

And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.

The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.

It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.

Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.

The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.

They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.

Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.

Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?

As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.

The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?

Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!

Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.

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