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Here's why MLB struggles to replicate Houston Astros winning formula

Here's why MLB struggles to replicate Houston Astros winning formula
Good luck catching up with the Astros. Photo by Harry How/Getty Images.

Since 2019, one critical player, one year at a time, the Astros have watched superstars leave via free agency rather than mortgage their future on high-risk, overpriced, long-term deals.

2019 – Gerrit Cole, 9 years, $324 million with the Yankees.

2020 – George Springer, 6 years, $150 million with the Blue Jays.

2021 – Carlos Correa, 3 years, $105 million with the Twins.

2022 – Justin Verlander, $2 years, $86 million with the Mets.

The Astros’ ability to create superstars and then decline to match (or even coming close to) those contracts has made more mega-millionaires than that FTX crypto currency guy, Sam Bankman-Fried.

OK, bad example. Let’s say Charles Schwab.

And now former (still weird to say that) Astro Carlos Correa has signed a 13-year, $350 million deal with the San Francisco Giants. Correa is 28 years old. He will be 41 the last year of his contract in 2036. The way baseball is changing rules and making over the game, who knows what baseball will look like in 2036? One thing is unlikely – a 41-year-old shortstop.

Of course the Giants aren’t thinking 2036 – they’re all in on now. They needed to make a splash in the free agent market, especially since they whiffed on Aaron Judge. California is a competitive market with division rivals San Diego and Los Angeles stocking their rosters with marquee players. Stars sell tickets. Without Correa, the Giants would be fielding a team of … go ahead, name their starting lineup.

The Giants offered 13 years to make Correa happy and to amortize the $350 million to infinity and beyond, thus avoiding luxury tax penalties.

As Michael Corleone would say, if history has taught us anything … it’s that crazy long contracts are bad investments in baseball. But desperate times call for desperate measures. The Giants finished 2022 with an 81-81 record, pretty good, but 30 games behind their arch rival Dodgers in the National League West.

Instead of arch rival Dodgers, maybe we should say traditional rival Dodgers. It’s been pretty one-sided lately.

Even with Verlander leaving the Astros for Mets riches (a 40-year-old will be the highest-paid player next year), the Astros should continue their winning ways without a blink. That’s their thing.

Besides becoming super-wealthy men with Astros pedigree, what do Springer, Cole and Correa – and for sure Verlander next year have in common?

After departing the Astros, none has been back to the World Series. Meanwhile Astros players plan World Series bonuses in their family budgets.

The Astros will be fine in 2023, they’re the betting favorites to repeat. They don’t just reload, they add firepower.

Who’d you rather have in 2023 – Kyle Tucker or George Springer? Framber Valdez or Justin Verlander? And a year ago it would have been a ridiculous question, but Jeremy Peña or Carlos Correa? Apples to apples, their 2022 seasons were very similar. Correa batted .291 with 22 homers and 64 RBI. Peña batted .254 with 22 homers and 63 RBI. Peña added a Gold Glove and World Series MVP. Peña is three years younger.

Correa, Cole, Springer and Verlander will earn about $135 million combined in salary next year.

Depending on arbitration and possible contract extensions, Peña, Tucker, Valdez and let’s add Cristian Javier will earn about $21 million.

Plus, in the case of the Astros quartet: World Series bonus money.

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Framer Valdez recorded six strikeouts. Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images.

Jason Heyward hit a two-run homer early and Jon Singleton had three hits, capped by a tiebreaking RBI single in Houston’s four-run eighth inning, and the Astros got a 6-3 win over the Oakland Athletics on Thursday.

Brent Rooker homered off Ryan Pressly (2-3) with one out in the eighth to tie it at 2-all.

Yainer Diaz and Kyle Tucker hit consecutive singles with one out in the eighth to chase T.J. McFarland (2-3) and bring on Grant Holman. There were two outs in the inning when Singleton’s single to center field scored Diaz to put the Astros on top.

Jake Meyers followed with a run-scoring double before the Athletics intentionally walked Heyward to load the bases. Mauricio Dubón singled on a ground ball to left field to score two more, pushing the lead to 6-2.

Tyler Nevin hit a solo homer off Josh Hader with one out in the ninth before the closer retired the next two batters to end it.

Houston’s Framber Valdez allowed five hits and a run with six strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings to help the Astros avoid a three-game sweep and snap a three-game skid with the victory.

Oakland starter Mitch Spence permitted seven hits and two runs in seven innings.

Singleton hit a ground-rule double with one out in the second before Heyward smacked a line drive into the second row in right field for his first home run as an Astro to make it 2-0.

It was the third hit in 12 games with Houston for Heyward, who signed with the Astros Aug. 29 after being released by the Dodgers.

Jacob Wilson doubled to open the seventh and moved to third on a ground out by Nevin. The Athletics cut the lead to 1 when Wilson scored on a single by Daz Cameron that chased Valdez.

Bryan Abreu took over and pinch-hitter Seth Brown grounded into a double play on his second pitch to preserve the lead.

Lawrence Butler doubled with one out in the third to extend his career-long hitting streak to 20 games.

Singleton doubled again to start Houston’s fourth before Spence sat down the next 11 Astros. Houston’s next base runner came on a double by Dubón with two outs in the seventh and Alex Bregman grounded out to leave him stranded.

Trainer’s Room

Athletics: 1B Tyler Soderstrom (left wrist injury) is scheduled to come off the injured list Friday for the start of a series against the White Sox.

Astros: 2B Jose Altuve was out of the lineup Thursday, a day after leaving in the fifth inning with discomfort in his right side. Manager Joe Espada said he was feeling better Thursday and that he is listed as day to day.

Up Next

Athletics: LHP Brady Basso (0-0, 1.93 ERA) will start for Oakland against LHP Garrett Crochet (6-11, 3.83) in the opener of a three-game series against the Chicago White Sox Friday night.

Astros: Houston LHP Yusei Kikuchi (8-9, 4.31) opposes LHP Samuel Aldegheri (1-1, 2.45) in the first of three games against the Los Angeles Angels Friday night.

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