THE PALLILOG
Here's how a lockout could impact free agency for Carlos Correa, Astros
Nov 5, 2021, 9:55 am
The collective bargaining agreement expires December 1st. Composite image by Jack Brame.
Winning a silver medal at the Olympics is a tremendous achievement. It is only disappointing when compared specifically to winning the gold. The "second place is just first loser" position is stupid, if an amusing phrase. The Astros losing the World Series for the second time in three years was disappointing for them and all Astros' fans, but getting there for the third time in five years was spectacular. The Braves were clearly the better team over the run of the series and them winning it is a very, very minor upset. There is nothing to be learned from it for the Astros unless "hit and pitch better" are learning points.
So now what? The white-hot front burner story is the Carlos Correa watch. How many years, how many dollars, and of course, with what team? Correa can cut a deal as soon as Sunday night. As opposed to the NFL and NBA, typically in baseball the megadollar free agent deals don't happen when the green flag for signings drops. This is not a typical start to free agency however. The collective bargaining agreement between the players and owners expires December 1st. Without a deal a lockout ensues. Along with shutting off dealmaking, a lockout raises the possibility of an ugly drawn out negotiation that disrupts the start of next season, in turn raising the spectre of significant financial damage going forward. You'd like to think the two sides wouldn't be so stupid as to get there but we'll see. If that were to occur what would that mean for the money landscape? With that in mind does Correa lock in a deal before December 1? It's not as if his soon-to-be son's college fund is riding on it, but it's a consideration.
Let's say Correa commands eight years 250 million dollars. That's three years and 125 million more dollars than the Astros' last offer back in the spring. Would Jim Crane and partners swallow hard and go that far? How would Correa respond to Astros' willingness to match a quarter billion dollar offer as opposed to originating it themselves? Correa has talked of his Astros tenure in the past tense. Is that in part preparing himself for a reality of moving on if the Astros' offer is non-competitive? Is it strictly most years, most dollars? Does he want to become "The Man" elsewhere such as a Detroit or Seattle?
Unless accepting that the end years of the deal will be at least somewhat sunk cost, a team would be silly to offer longer than eight years. Even eight is pushing it. Correa is a big guy. It would be unprecedented for him to be an elite defensive shortstop at 34 or 35 years old. He certainly could move to third base or first base or left field as he ages, but Correa's premium value is because he plays a stellar shortstop in addition to usually being a very good offensive player. He is not an offensive superstar.
Full steam ahead for Texans and Rockets, kind of
The Astros' 2022 season is scheduled to open March 31 (please, please, please!) In the meantime we have the Texans and the Rockets. Gawd. They both enter the weekend with records of 1-7. The Texans Travesty drones on with the passing of the trade deadline and nothing happening with Deshaun Watson. Reports a couple weeks ago of a deal with the Dolphins being close were obviously bogus. No one was ponying up anything close to what Nick Caserio was seeking, so Watson will make his full 11.2 million dollar salary to never play this season.
Reminder, the Rockets are paying John Wall over 44 mil to never play this season. However, with their rebuild underway, while the Rockets won't be good for a while, they are not the laughingstock organization of their sport.
It feels more like 40 seasons ago than four that Chris Paul helped the Rockets get closer to the NBA Finals than they've otherwise been in the last quarter century. Before helping the Phoenix Suns beat the Rockets Thursday, Paul this week jumped Steve Nash for third on the NBA all-time assists list. Going forward, if Paul averaged 10 assists per game and never missed a game until he turns 42, he still wouldn't catch John Stockton for number one. The assists gap from Stockton to CP3 (with Jason Kidd in between) is larger than the gap between Paul and Jose Calderon who is 63rd. No Rocket fan favorite, and like Paul, NBA championship ring-less, but Stockton was amazing.
Buzzer Beaters:
1. The college basketball season starts Tuesday. Yes! Off its Final Four run UH opens ranked 15th. Kelvin Sampson's team is different but I'd bet a small fortune they will D up, pound the boards, and be pretty, pretty, pretty good. Final Four again? Of course not likely, but not impossible.
2. Had Watson been traded to the Dolphins a couple weeks ago he'd play against the Texans Sunday. THAT would have been a must-watch. Instead, the 1-7 Texans at the 1-7 Dolphins? Run! Run away!
3. Greatest Dolphins: Bronze-Artis Gilmore Silver-Dan Marino Gold-Flipper
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.