THE PALLILOG
Making this tactical adjustment could pay big dividends for Astros
Oct 29, 2021, 10:11 am
The Astros should consider dropping Alex Bregman lower in the batting order. Composite image by Jack Brame.
correa-altuve-bregman (1)
While having World Series games in Houston has become a delightful every other year tradition the past half decade, Friday night's game three in Atlanta is the first Fall Classic game there since 1999. After swapping easy wins that have the series level at a game apiece, how about some close games? Sports at their best are about tight competition that brings out the best on both sides.
With the scene shifting to the National League stadium for games three, four, five, Dusty Baker has a decision to make with no designated hitter at his disposal. Is there really a decision? That Yordan Alvarez has only played left field in two of the Astros' 12 postseason games is less than ideal, but how do you sit his bat? Alvarez is not a strong outfielder, but was no disaster over the 39 games he started in left this season. Truist Park is not a tricky outfield with nooks and crannies or an unusual outfield wall. Kyle Tucker in center with Michael Brantley in right definitely makes for a weaker outfield than Tucker in right with either Chas McCormick or Jose Siri in center, but not so much weaker as to make sitting Yordan in any of the three games the right call. If Dusty Baker wants a "true" centerfielder, Brantley is the guy who should go to the bench. Glass half full, the Astros will have a potent pinch-hitting option. The ideal is build a working lead and defensively sub for Alvarez in the last inning or two.
The decision Baker should make is dropping Alex Bregman lower in the batting order. Bregman was merely pretty good this season. Not close in quality to Tucker, Carlos Correa, or Yuli Gurriel. Bregman should be slotted seventh behind all of them. The microscope of scrutiny in the postseason does lend itself to overreaction. Jose Altuve's recent bad stretch lowlighted by his atrocious game one against the Braves did not mean there should have been any consideration to dropping him (think George Springer in 2017). But Bregman was last a big time hitter in 2019. While he could come alive and have a huge few games (nature of the beast), he clearly should be batting behind three guys who were vastly superior over the course of the season, and in the cases of Gurriel and Tucker been swinging it in the playoffs.
Defense (apart from pitching) is still often underrated. "D" is another great strength of the Astros. Gold Glove voting has a history of some preposterous outcomes, but the Astros having a whopping five American League finalists at their positions is on point. Martin Maldonado and Correa seem good bets to win. Maldonado would get a companion for his 2017 Gold Glove. Correa nabbing his first would be one more feather for his free agent cap. Gurriel is an excellent first baseman, Tucker the same in right field, Zack Greinke ditto on the mound. Greinke is a six time winner.
Texans host the Rams
The travesty that is the Houston Texans likely absorbs its latest beating Sunday with the Los Angeles Rams in town. The Texans' offense is sub-pathetic. The roster is overwhelmingly bereft of young players of meaningful promise. Unless kinfolk or close friend of someone involved with the team, why would anyone subject him or herself to watching much the rest of the season? Organizationally they're not trying to win (and doing a heck of a job of it). On the plus side Head Coach David Culley seems a genuinely nice man! The NFL trade deadline arrives Tuesday. Is Deshaun Watson dealt? Only an idiot would give up the Texans' supposed still asking price of three first round picks plus a couple of other assets. Supposed most ardent suitor Miami is where the Texans play a week from Sunday. Not that Watson would suit up and play so quickly for the Dolphins.
The presumptive Texans' loss Sunday would sink them to 1-7. The Rockets may be hard-pressed to be any better in the record department after their first eight games. Utah obliterating them at Toyota Center Thursday night sags the Rockets to 1-4. Now they hit the road for consecutive games at the Lakers, then stops at the Suns, Nuggets and Warriors. Sheesh. Maybe they can get one from the Lakers. LeBron James has missed games already this season with an ankle injury, while Russell Westbrook is thus far bricking away for his latest new team.
Buzzer Beaters:
1. Bummer scheduling that has Saturday's football game with 6-1 UH home vs. 7-0 SMU starting at 6, with Astros-Braves starting shortly after 7. With a win the Cougars likely crack the top 25 for the first time since Major Applewhite's final season as head coach.
2. The Braves should not be promoting use of the Tomahawk Chop.
3. Vegans feel free to skip this one… Best chops: Bronze-lamb Silver-veal Gold-pork, when done right-i.e. Perry's
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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