The Astros are back in the driver's seat

Astros playoff report presented by APG&E: Houston evens World Series with a dominant win in Game 4

Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images

With an utterly disappointing start to the World Series for the Astros having lost the first two games at home with their best pitchers on the mound, they took Game 3 to get back into it. On Saturday, they went one step further with an 8-1 win in Game 4, and are now back in the driver's seat with both teams needing two wins of the final three games to take the series.

It started with a brilliant performance by Jose Urquidy, who exceeded expectations in a start that earned him a win, then Alex Bregman put the exclamation point on the night with a grand slam later in the game. Here is a recap of Game 4:

Final Score: Astros 8, Nationals 1.

Series: tied 2-2.

Winning Pitcher: Jose Urquidy.

Losing Pitcher: Patrick Corbin.

Houston jumps ahead early again

Just like in Game 3, the Astros went right at the Nationals to get an early lead. It came by way of four-straight singles in the top of the first by Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman, and Yuli Gurriel, with Bregman and Gurriel's coming in for RBIs. They would go on to load the bases, but an inning-ending double play would hold them to just a 2-0 lead.

That score held until the top of the fourth, where Houston doubled their score with one swing of the bat. Carlos Correa started the inning with his second walk of the night, setting up a two-run homer by Robinson Chirinos, his second in as many nights, pushing the Astros out to a 4-0 lead.

Urquidy exceeds expectations in a gem of a start

While the Astros were putting up four runs, Jose Urquidy would have been okay with just one through his start. In a game that was expected to be full of many relievers, the rookie pitcher carried his team on his back for a terrific outing.

Urquidy allowed two hits, a single in the first and double in the third. That's it for five innings in the World Series against the Nationals who just three days ago put up twelve runs. Not only was it just what his team needed, but it was also arguably the best start by a pitcher on either team this whole series. His final line in an incredible night: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K.

Nats get one back in the sixth, but Bregman blows it open in the seventh

Josh James was first out of Houston's bullpen as they looked to their relievers to hold on to the four-run lead over the final four innings. James would not have his best stuff, getting a strikeout but allowing two walks, prompting A.J. Hinch to make another move to bring in Will Harris to shut down the inning.

Harris would have a comebacker deflect off his leg against his first batter, loading the bases before getting an RBI-groundout for the second out, making it 4-1. He would end the threat there, getting a crucial strikeout to end the inning and hold the three-run lead.

In the top of the seventh, the Astros went to work against Washington's bullpen. They loaded the bases on a pinch-hit walk by Kyle Tucker, walk by George Springer, then single by Michal Brantley. That brought the struggling Alex Bregman to the plate with one out, and instead of getting just one run on a sacrifice hit, instead blew the game open with a huge grand slam to make it 8-1 and get him back on track at the plate.

Houston ties the series

Hector Rondon was next out of Houston's bullpen to try and hold the newly created seven-run lead in the bottom of the seventh. He would record two outs while putting two on base, resulting in a change to bring in Brad Peacock, who would get the last out of the inning. Peacock remained in the game for the bottom of the eighth, working around a walk and error for a scoreless inning to move the game into the ninth with Houston still ahead seven runs.

Chris Devenski was the final pitcher of the night for the Astros, coming in for the bottom of the ninth to hold on to the seven-run lead and get the final three outs. He did so, getting a scoreless frame to finish the victory, which has Houston in a tie for the World Series with back-to-back wins after dropping the first two games.

Up Next: World Series Game 5 will get underway Sunday with another 7:07 PM Central start time. The pitching matchup is a rematch of Game 1 with the Nationals sending out Max Scherzer and the Astros starting Gerrit Cole. Scherzer was the winner of that game with five innings of work while allowing two runs and Cole received his first loss of the postseason by allowing five runs over seven frames. Houston will expect Cole to be back to the dominant self that had him out to a 3-0 start to the postseason before that tough outing.

The Astros playoff report is presented by APG&E.

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What do the numbers say about him? Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

Carlos Correa endeared himself in the heart of Astros fans during his 2020 postseason run. He talked the talk off the field, and he walked the walk on the field. Correa slashed .362/.455/.766 in the postseason, hitting more home runs in 13 postseason games than he did in 58 regular season games. His performance has sparked discussions about whether or not the Astros should seek an extension with him this offseason.

Aside from the gaudy postseason numbers, he asserted himself as a team leader. The images and stories of Correa talking to Framber Valdez on the mound, telling Dusty Baker he was going to hit the walk off, and saying this is the most fun he's ever had playing baseball are fresh in everyone's minds.

However, that's just thirteen games out of a 667 game career (counting the postseason). The postseason games are the most important, and Correa seems to show up when the lights shine brightest, but the Astros have to assemble a team good enough to play under the bright lights for Correa to get that moment to shine. What do the numbers say about him?

Hard Hit % - 41.8%

Barrel % - 5.9%

K% - 21.8%

BB% - 7.3%

Chase % - 31.8%

(Numbers from 2020)

By the numbers, Correa didn't have the greatest regular season in 2020. He slashed .264/.326/.383 with a 97 wRC+, meaning he was 3% worse in run production that the average hitter. He was tied for 14th amongst qualified shortstops with Nick Ahmed of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Francisco Lindor (100 wRC+) was one spot ahead of Correa, while Orlando Arcia (96 wRC+) was one spot behind. His Hard Hit % was in the 65th percentile in MLB, and his Barrel % was in the 34th percentile.

His expected numbers suggest that the dip in performance wasn't a matter of bad luck. His .256 xBA is slightly worse than his actual batting average. His .406 xSLG is slightly better than his actual .SLG, but not by much. Correa had a wOBA of .305 and a nearly identical xwOBA of .306. Lastly, his .324 BABIP was actually a .021 point jump over last year, and it's a touch above his career mark of .316.

Correa likely struggled during the regular season because of a downturn in production to the opposite field. Correa pulled the ball 49% of the time in 2020. That was 16th amongst qualified hitters, and it's a complete outlier for him in his career. It was 14.4% higher than 2019, and it was 15.6% higher than his career average. In 2019, Correa had a 9% HR% on batted balls to the opposite field. He had an average exit velocity of 87.7 MPH with an average launch angle of 27°. His batting average was .368 with a xBA of .349 to that part of the field. In 2020, Correa had a 0% HR% to the opposite field (meaning he didn't hit one). He had an average exit velocity of 86.8 MPH with an average launch angle of 30°. His batting average was .382, but his xBA was .259. Keep in mind, Correa missed most of the 2019 season with injury, so the sample sizes aren't all that different (57 AB's in 2019 versus 34 AB's in 2020).

It's a similar story for the straightaway portion of the field. In 2019, Correa had an 11% HR%, 90.4 MPH avg. exit velocity, 8° avg. launch angle, .370 BA, and .424 xBA between the gaps. In 2020, Correa had a 5% HR%, 88.5 MPH avg. exit velocity, 4° avg. launch angle, .349 BA, and .362 xBA.

That all changed in the postseason.

Here is an overlay of Correa's spray charts from postseason games in which he hit home runs. Five of his six postseason homers were to center field, and three of the five to center field were on the opposite field side of second base.

Correa also made some physical changes at the plate over the course of the season, particularly late in the season, which means that the uptick in offensive performance is related to a physical change, not just some sort of ability to turn it on in the postseason. Correa mentioned that he and Alex Cintron compared video to his rookie season to look at hand positioning, and Correa started to mimic that. Then, there's the already-famed story of Correa and Cintron running to the cages mid-game to open up his shoulders and be less closed off. All of those changes are clearly visible on video.

On the left is Correa early in the 2020 season when the Astros were in San Diego playing the Padres. In the middle is Correa's first career home run in 2015. On the right is Correa's walk-off homer against Tampa Bay. There are four clear and obvious changes. First, he's holding the bat nearly straight up, which he wasn't doing at the beginning of the season. It supports Correa's claim that he and Cintron were looking at video from 2015 and trying to mirror that swing again. Then, there's the change with Correa's shoulders. In the first photo, if it weren't so grainy, you could read "C-O-R-R-E" in Correa. Same deal with the second photo, except it's even more clear. In the third photo, you can only read "C-O" which also supports the story of that mid-game adjustment with Cintron. Third, Correa has a lot less forward body lean with his torso. Correa hasn't spoken as to why he made that change, but it is probably tied to shoulder and bat orientation and helps him feel more comfortable. Lastly, Correa opened his stance, which is almost always going to help with vision.

The changes all probably help Correa feel more free when he swings. His postseason swing was much more North-and-South than East-and-West. His hands are able to work freely underneath his shoulders, and he has to do a lot less work to clear space for his hands to work. It's encouraging that the uptick in performance is clearly tied to physical work in the cage.

Correa did bring solid defense to the table as well. He's a finalist for the AL Gold Glove Award at SS along with Niko Goodrum of the Detroit Tigers and J.P. Crawford of the Seattle Mariners. Correa will likely win the award. However, the defensive metrics are mixed on his performance.

Errors don't count as an advanced statistic, but they still bring value to the table. There's a direct correlation between making errors and giving up free bases. Now, just because a player doesn't make many errors doesn't mean he's an elite defender, but it's hard to be an elite defender if you make lots of errors. Correa takes care of the baseball, as his one error was tied for the least amongst shortstops. Correa also performed glowingly by DRS (Defensive Runs Saved). His DRS of 8 was second amongst shortstops, second behind only Dansby Swanson. However, UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) had Correa at -0.7, which is below average. His OAA (Outs Above Average) of 0 roughly agrees with his UZR rating. Essentially, the numbers say Correa makes the routine plays about as well as anybody, but he isn't particularly rangy. His arm is also impressive and brings a lot to the table. Correa isn't a bad defensive shortstop by any means, he's above average, but this is probably the only Gold Glove he'll ever be nominated for, much less win.

When Correa is healthy and on his game, he is one of the most electric players in baseball. The problem is he hasn't been healthy and on his game nearly enough in his career. Over his five full major league seasons, Correa has missed 203 out of 708 games. He's been unavailable, mostly due to injury, in 30% of games over that time. That's quite a bit. The three injuries that have caused him to miss the most time are all back and torso related. The fact that the back issues have recurred is alarming, and it's something to monitor. It is really hard to be a good baseball player with a bad back. Credit to Correa, he stayed healthy for all of 2020, but it was only a 60 game season, which means there were fewer opportunities for injury. If he has another healthy season in 2021, it'll be enough to put the injury prone label to rest, but he hasn't done it yet.

And again, there's the issue of his performance being up-and-down over the years. In 2018, Correa missed 52 games due to injury, and had a wRC+ of 100, meaning he was exactly league average. That means he's been only league average or worse in two of his six big league seasons. Correa played extremely well in 2019, racking up 3.2 WAR and 143 wRC+, but he only played 75 games.

Between COVID, injury history, and streaky performance, there's too much uncertainty to give Correa a long term deal right now. However, his peaks, leadership ability, and apparent willingness to stay in Houston certainly make him a candidate for one. 2021 will be a "prove it" year for Correa, and it will go a long way in ranking him amongst the crop of shortstops hitting the free agent market after next year. Is Correa at the top of that market with Francisco Lindor, or is he at the bottom of that market with Javy Baez?

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