MAKE ROOM IN THE TROPHY CASE
Another award-filled offseason could await the Houston Astros
Sep 16, 2022, 12:13 pm
Several Astros are in contention for awards. Composite image by Brandon Strange.
verlander (2)
All you have to do is look at the American League standings to see how good the Astros are. They are cruising towards a top-seed finish in the AL and are playing some of their best baseball; plus, they're getting healthy at the right time.
So, with a few weeks left of the regular season, it's not too early to start talking about what hardware members of the team could be bringing home this offseason.
Another Cy Young for JV?
Before his injury in late August, Justin Verlander was miles ahead of the competition in the race for this year's Cy Young award. During his stint on the IL, though, Dylan Cease has made up ground and, at some books, is the current favorite. Verlander will return to the mound Friday night against the A's, and as long as he can string together 3-4 more starts at the same level he was before the IL stint, he should regain control of being the odds-on favorite.
If he pulls it off, it will be his third time winning the award, with two under his belt from his 2011 MVP season and his 2019 season with the Astros. Even if not, Verlander has completely outperformed expectations for a 39-year-old returning from Tommy John surgery, which should make him a shoo-in for Comeback Player of the Year.
"You kind of forget to take off the blinders sometimes and really enjoy what's going on around you."@astros Justin Verlander talked about how being away from baseball helped him shift his perspective and be more "in the moment" as he returns: pic.twitter.com/h6ZHJ78fm6
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) August 21, 2022
Other than Verlander, the Astros have another pitcher at least in the top 5-10 as potential candidates, though not quite to the level of Verlander or Cease. Framber Valdez is having a storybook season this year, as evidenced by his current streak of 24 consecutive quality starts, one away from setting a single-season record.
Among qualified starters, Valdez's ERA sits sixth-best in the AL with a second-best win total (15 compared to Verlander's 16), seventh-best strikeout total, ninth-best WHIP, and though not necessarily a performance metric, far and away the highest ground-ball percentage. He probably won't grab the award this season, but if he takes another step forward next year, he'll be more in the conversation.
Potential Silver Sluggers
The Astros have a few players at or near the top of their respective positions in terms of offensive value. At second base, Jose Altuve is in what shapes up to be a three-man battle with Cleveland's Andres Gimenez and Minnesota's Luis Arreaz. Arreaz leads the trio in average with his AL-best .320 by a healthy margin but is only two points (.380 vs. .378) ahead of Altuve in on-base percentage, and with Altuve's leading slugging, he leads the other two in OPS (.889), homers, and several advanced metrics.
Once in the conversation for AL MVP along with Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, Yordan Alvarez has fallen out of those projections as it appears that the race has dwindled to the two aforementioned contenders. Still, he remains in a prime position to challenge Ohtani for the Silver Slugger at DH, which the two-way star won last year. Ohtani currently leads qualified batters at the position in homers (34 vs. Alvarez's 33) and RBI (88 vs. 85). However, Alvarez has healthy leads in average, on-base percentage, slugging, OPS, and advanced metrics.
No. 33 for Yordan. 💪 pic.twitter.com/a9oOF10cW6
— MLB (@MLB) September 13, 2022
Potential Gold Gloves
At catcher, a notoriously difficult position to judge due to their dependency on other players (pitchers throwing catchable pitches, infielders catching and tagging attempted steals), Martin Maldonado should at least be in the conversation with a high fielding percentage and other metrics. Kyle Tucker will be another Astro in contention, with a defensive WAR of 0.9, the highest among qualified right fielders in the AL, and the most defensive runs saved (DRS) and fielding percentage according to Fangraphs.
Of course, if you ask any of these players, they will tell you that individual accolades are not their focus right now. There's only one trophy that matters while baseball is still being played, and that's the Commissioner's Trophy. In addition to some personal awards that may come later, they're in fine shape to bring that back to Houston as well.
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.