CHARLIE PALLILO
Astros-Red Sox series could be prime time magic
Oct 12, 2018, 6:33 am
Jose Altuve was a big reason the Astros beat the Red Sox last season. Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images
The Astros-Red Sox matchup is Ali-Frazier for the 2018 baseball postseason. This after the Astros-Indians series turned out to be a heavyweight easily knocking out a cruiserweight.
The Astros are the defending champions, winners of a franchise record 103 games this season. The challengers this season became just the eighth team in the era of the 162 game schedule (started in 1961) to win 108 or more games. And they’re the underdogs! And rightfully so. But Boston winning the pennant would be a very minor upset.
The Red Sox definitely had the best offense in the AL this year. It wasn’t as great as the Astros’ 2017 offense, but it was a lot better than the 2018 Astros’ attack. Think of the 2018 breakdown this way: Mookie Betts was clearly better than Alex Bregman, J.D. Martinez was clearly better than Jose Altuve, Andrew Benintendi was clearly better than George Springer, and Xander Bogaerts was clearly better than Carlos Correa. The Sox lineup also has depth and versatility.
Like the Indians series, the Astros biggest on paper advantage comes in the bullpen. Boston’s four most used relievers all rack up strikeouts (what pitchers don’t these days), but all four have control issues. Whether working some walks or getting into favorable hitting counts the Astros should have chances to make hay against the Sox’ pen.
How early in games the Astros get into the Boston bully is a series subplot. Boston ace Chris Sale is phenomenal, but he’ll throw the first pitch of game one having pitched all of 18 1/3 innings in the last two months. He looked good against the Yankees, but last lasted 100 pitches in a game July 27. Boston Game 2 starter David Price merely has the worst starting pitcher resume in postseason history: 10 starts, 0-9 with a 6.03 earned run average. Past performance is no guarantee of future results but that is brutal. Price didn’t last the second inning of his Game 2 start against the Yankees and he was booed off the mound by the Fenway not always faithful. If the Astros put early pressure on Price the guy could fall apart. Price is very talented. He largely overpowered the Astros into the seventh inning at Fenway last month. The Astros then battered the bullpen.
The cool weather (Game 1 may finish with the temperature in the upper-40s, Game 2 a few degrees warmer) can’t be helpful for Carlos Correa’s back. Odd that his defense seems wholly unaffected while his hitting has mostly vaporized, but whatever. Good news/bad news that the Astros shouldn’t be and aren’t counting on Correa for offense. A.J. Hinch has smoothly handled Correa’s gradual batting order demotion from fourth to fifth to sixth and then seventh.
The Boston-Houston connections are significant. Red Sox manager Alex Cora was A.J. Hinch’s bench coach last year. Martinez flopped as an Astro prospect but has become one of the best hitters in the game; he’s been Hall of Fame caliber two seasons running now. Alvin High School grad Nathan Eovaldi will be the Sox’ starting pitcher in either game three or game four. Former Rice Owl Brock Holt should start multiple games over Ian Kinsler at second base. During the Yankees series Holt became the first big leaguer in postseason history to hit for the cycle.
My standard proviso is that without money on the line baseball postseason predictions are basically worthless. There are no real upsets possible, and any set of game outcomes is in play. I just don’t see a fundamental reason to pick against the Astros.
I hear there’s a National League Championship Series also. The team that won more games this season is the underdog there too. Let’s face it, Fox is rooting for a Red Sox-Dodgers World Series. Probably enough reason for Astros’ fans to root Brewers.
Don't get Buffalo'd
I hear the Texans play the Buffalo Bills Sunday. Provided Deshaun Watson is healthy this should be the easiest win left on the Texans’ schedule. Possible exception the Colts’ rematch in December. Famous last words right? Buffalo’s offense is garbage. The Bills have yet to muster 300 yards of total offense in a game. Despite an offensive line that remains wretched the Texans have topped 425 yards in all but one game. If the o-line and Bill O’Brien’s play calling don’t necessitate a professional body bag for Watson, watching Deshaun try to do work at Jacksonville next week should be fun.
Buzzer Beaters
1. Over/Under for Rockets’ regular season wins is 56 ½. I go over, but not the 65 they won last season. 2. Best season ticket in college football belongs to LSU fans. The Tigers this week get #2 Georgia in Baton Rouge then in three weeks it’s #1 Alabama heading to Death Valley. 3. Best Boston music acts: Bronze-The Cars Silver-Boston Gold-Aerosmith
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.