CHARLIE PALLILO

Astros-Red Sox series could be prime time magic

Astros-Red Sox series could be prime time magic
Jose Altuve was a big reason the Astros beat the Red Sox last season. Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

The Astros-Red Sox matchup is Ali-Frazier for the 2018 baseball postseason. This after the Astros-Indians series turned out to be a heavyweight easily knocking out a cruiserweight.

The Astros are the defending champions, winners of a franchise record 103 games this season. The challengers this season became just the eighth team in the era of the 162 game schedule (started in 1961) to win 108 or more games. And they’re the underdogs! And rightfully so. But Boston winning the pennant would be a very minor upset.

The Red Sox definitely had the best offense in the AL this year. It wasn’t as great as the Astros’ 2017 offense, but it was a lot better than the 2018 Astros’ attack. Think of the 2018 breakdown this way: Mookie Betts was clearly better than Alex Bregman, J.D. Martinez was clearly better than Jose Altuve, Andrew Benintendi was clearly better than George Springer, and Xander Bogaerts was clearly better than Carlos Correa. The Sox lineup also has depth and versatility.

Like the Indians series, the Astros biggest on paper advantage comes in the bullpen. Boston’s four most used relievers all rack up strikeouts (what pitchers don’t these days), but all four have control issues. Whether working some walks or getting into favorable hitting counts the Astros should have chances to make hay against the Sox’ pen.

How early in games the Astros get into the Boston bully is a series subplot. Boston ace Chris Sale is phenomenal, but he’ll throw the first pitch of game one having pitched all of 18 1/3 innings in the last two months. He looked good against the Yankees, but last lasted 100 pitches in a game July 27. Boston Game 2 starter David Price merely has the worst starting pitcher resume in postseason history: 10 starts, 0-9 with a 6.03 earned run average. Past performance is no guarantee of future results but that is brutal. Price didn’t last the second inning of his Game 2 start against the Yankees and he was booed off the mound by the Fenway not always faithful. If the Astros put early pressure on Price the guy could fall apart. Price is very talented. He largely overpowered the Astros into the seventh inning at Fenway last month. The Astros then battered the bullpen.

The cool weather (Game 1 may finish with the temperature in the upper-40s, Game 2 a few degrees warmer) can’t be helpful for Carlos Correa’s back. Odd that his defense seems wholly unaffected while his hitting has mostly vaporized, but whatever. Good news/bad news that the Astros shouldn’t be and aren’t counting on Correa for offense. A.J. Hinch has smoothly handled Correa’s gradual batting order demotion from fourth to fifth to sixth and then seventh.

The Boston-Houston connections are significant. Red Sox manager Alex Cora was A.J. Hinch’s bench coach last year. Martinez flopped as an Astro prospect but has become one of the best hitters in the game; he’s been Hall of Fame caliber two seasons running now. Alvin High School grad Nathan Eovaldi will be the Sox’ starting pitcher in either game three or game four. Former Rice Owl Brock Holt should start multiple games over Ian Kinsler at second base. During the Yankees series Holt became the first big leaguer in postseason history to hit for the cycle.

My standard proviso is that without money on the line baseball postseason predictions are basically worthless. There are no real upsets possible, and any set of game outcomes is in play. I just don’t see a fundamental reason to pick against the Astros.

I hear there’s a National League Championship Series also. The team that won more games this season is the underdog there too. Let’s face it, Fox is rooting for a Red Sox-Dodgers World Series. Probably enough reason for Astros’ fans to root Brewers.

Don't get Buffalo'd

I hear the Texans play the Buffalo Bills Sunday. Provided Deshaun Watson is healthy this should be the easiest win left on the Texans’ schedule. Possible exception the Colts’ rematch in December. Famous last words right? Buffalo’s offense is garbage. The Bills have yet to muster 300 yards of total offense in a game. Despite an offensive line that remains wretched the Texans have topped 425 yards in all but one game. If the o-line and Bill O’Brien’s play calling don’t necessitate a professional body bag for Watson, watching Deshaun try to do work at Jacksonville next week should be fun.

Buzzer Beaters

1. Over/Under for Rockets’ regular season wins is 56 ½. I go over, but not the 65 they won last season.   2. Best season ticket in college football belongs to LSU fans. The Tigers this week get #2 Georgia in Baton Rouge then in three weeks it’s #1 Alabama heading to Death Valley.    3. Best Boston music acts: Bronze-The Cars Silver-Boston Gold-Aerosmith

 

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The Astros are rolling right now! Composite Getty Image.

The Houston Astros are in the middle of a midseason surge that’s turned heads across the American League, but don’t let the win streak distract from one key truth: they’re doing this with less.

So what’s powering the Astros’ recent run? It starts with elite pitching. Despite an offense that's been merely middle-of-the-pack — 14th in OPS, 20th in runs scored, and 17th in slugging — Houston ranks fifth in team ERA and leads the majors in batting average against (.218). That’s how they’re winning series while missing key pieces of their core.

Still, there’s more to this run than numbers. Is the resilience we’re seeing tangible evidence of the Astros’ winning culture? Absolutely — especially lately. Rookie Cam Smith is the latest example. He delivered the first walk-off hit of his career over the weekend and looks like he belongs in the big leagues. Meanwhile, the lineup has caught fire over the last week hitting:

  • Jose Altuve: .429
  • Jeremy Peña: .417
  • Cam Smith: .304
  • Yainer Diaz: .292
  • Christian Walker: .278

And all of this has come without one of Houston’s top two hitters being unavailable for the Twins series, Isaac Paredes, who remains sidelined with a sore hamstring.

With 71 games in the books, the conversation around second-year manager Joe Espada is beginning to shift — from quiet confidence to serious consideration for AL Manager of the Year. The case is strong. Espada has navigated a bruised and bruising season that’s seen Yordan Alvarez miss extended time with a fractured bone in his hand and three key starting pitchers (Spencer Arrighetti, Hayden Wesneski, Ronel Blanco) land on the shelf — two of them for the year.

So, what would it take for Astros owner Jim Crane to give GM Dana Brown the green light to aggressively pursue help at the deadline? History suggests pitching would be the priority. But with young arms like Colton Gordon, Ryan Gusto, and Brandon Walter stepping up, a move may not feel necessary, especially if it means exceeding the luxury tax threshold.

The Astros might be banged up, but they’re thriving and proving they don’t need to be at full strength to play like contenders.

There's so much more to cover! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.

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*ChatGPT assisted.


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