Breaking down the rest of the 2019 regular season
Astros second half preview
Jul 8, 2019, 6:55 am
Photo by Elsa/Getty Images
With the win on Sunday against the Angels, the Astros put an end to the part of the season commonly known as the "first half," although it's technically well past the halfway point in the season based on games. While the season so far has had its ups and downs, they remain a top contender in the league and the best in their division.
So while the team as a whole will get three days off while a few guys head to Cleveland for a few festivities over the next couple of days, it's a good time to look ahead and see what is in store for the Astros down the stretch in the hunt for October.
First, some All-Star fun
A few Astros will get to enjoy some well-deserved national attention on Monday and Tuesday night for the Home Run Derby and All-Star game. Monday night will be the 2019 Home Run Derby, and representing Houston will be Alex Bregman.
Bregman participated in the 2018 derby but made an early exit after losing 16-15 in round one to Kyle Schwarber of the Chicago Cubs. Perhaps this year with some experience under his belt Bregman can go deeper into the bracket. His first-round matchup will be Joc Pederson, who made it to the final round in 2015 before coming up just short of the crown.
If Bregman advances to the second round, he'll face the winner of Matt Chapman and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with a spot in the final round on the line. In the final round, Bregman would meet the best of Pete Alonso, Carlos Santana, Josh Bell, and Ronald Acuna Jr who comprise the other side of the bracket.
Then, on Tuesday night Bregman will join George Springer and Michael Brantley as starters in the field for the 2019 MLB All-Star game. Also on the roster are Houston's star pitchers Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Ryan Pressly. Stay tuned to SportsMap where we will give a recap of both the Home Run Derby and All-Star Game with a focus on Houston's players.
Win the division
Once the games matter again later this week, Houston will have one goal in mind: making the playoffs. The best way to do that is to win your division, something the Astros have done the last two seasons.
Houston has only played 33 of their 76 division games so far in 2019. That means that 43 of the last 72 games will be against division opponents. One of the good trends of the first part of this season has been the Astros doing well against the AL West, going 26-7 in the first 33 games.
They will resume the regular season this Thursday in Arlington with a 7.5 game lead over Oakland who sits in second place and nine games ahead of the Rangers in third. While that gives them some cushion to work with, Houston will have to take care of business to make sure that a team that generates a significant surge at the end of the season, as the A's did in 2018, won't take them by surprise.
The other trend in Houston's favor regarding their division, they were 12-1 in games at home against the AL West. They will have a lot of chances to take advantage of that through September; Houston will play 25 of the 43 division games at Minute Maid Park.
Keep the pace
One way to virtually ensure you win your division is to post a 100-win record. Houston had 101 wins in their 2017 championship season, then bested that with 103 in 2018 when they would fall in the ALCS to the 108-win Red Sox.
The Astros, currently at 57-33, are on pace to win 103 games yet again. Can they beat their 2018 win total and post a new franchise-best regular season? Nine of the final twenty-three series that Houston has on the schedule are against teams that are currently above .500 on the year.
Within those nine, many of those are against the Rangers and A's at home, so when you pair that with the matchups against weaker teams, it's plausible that the Astros could go on several long winning streaks and finish the season better than 103-59.
Staying healthy
While the Astros are still not completely healthy going into the All-Star break, they are getting close. The biggest names that should be returning to the lineup soon are Brad Peacock, Aledmys Diaz, and most notably, Carlos Correa.
Correa's return is expected shortly after the regular season resumes, which should provide a noticeable improvement on both sides of the ball. Having Correa's defense at shortstop will allow the infield to return to normal with Alex Bregman at third, Jose Altuve at second, and Yuli Gurriel at first base. His return alone will bring some stability back on the defense that, while it hasn't been horrible, has had some miscues with players covering some unfamiliar ground.
Similarly, having Aledmys Diaz back in his utility role will allow some of the players who have had to go extended periods without a break to have some rest days when needed to ensure that everyone is staying healthy. Peacock returning to the pitching core will help shore up a rotation that is currently struggling past the top three arms.
Having these three back and keeping the rest of the team intact the rest of the year will be crucial to a momentous finish and successful playoff push.
Trade deadline decisions
The path to the July 31st trade deadline should be an interesting one for Houston. One side of the argument is that they do not need to take any drastic measures to improve an already successful team. On the other hand, some prominent weak spots could be firmed up to help in the playoffs.
Right now, one of those weaker spots is in the rotation. With Brad Peacock on the IL and Collin McHugh in the bullpen again, the Astros only have three solid starters: Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Wade Miley. While Peacock will likely return to the rotation when he returns, he's also done well out of the bullpen in recent years. McHugh is looking sharp as a reliever too, as he did in previous seasons.
Several arms have been connected to Houston in possible trades before the deadline such as Madison Bumgarner, Max Scherzer, Marcus Stroman, and Matthew Boyd. It will all come down to how much the trading team asks for since the Astros have repeatedly been unwilling to move any of their highest prospects like Kyle Tucker or Forrest Whitley.
Additionally, while the Astros may need a strong starting arm in 2019, that may not be the case in 2020 when they get Lance McCullers Jr. back, and have Whitley in waiting to take his place on the team as well. Still, Jeff Lunhow has made several terrific moves for his team in recent years; look no further than the acquisitions of their current duo of Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole.
All in all, the Astros are in great shape to continue their winning ways in the remaining games of the 2019 season so that they can be in a position to try and win the second World Series in franchise history. As always, we'll have our daily Astros report to give you recaps of every game Houston plays the rest of the year.
It’s been an excellent weeklong stretch of games for the Astros tempered by the news of yet another season-ending injury to a starting pitcher. To get the bad news out of the way, it comes as no surprise that Ronel Blanco needs Tommy John surgery and is done until at least the middle of next season. While Blanco had not been nearly as good through nine 2025 starts as he was last season, he was still taking his regular return and on average getting into the sixth inning. Blanco turns 32 years old at the end of August. He’s not even salary arbitration-eligible until 2027. That last fact may be good news for him. The Astros will likely keep Blanco next year in hopes he can contribute in the second half of the season, since they will pay him barely the Major League minimum salary ($780,000 next year) That’s in contrast to Jose Urquidy, who in the midst of his salary arbitration years would have cost about three and a half million dollars to keep, so the Astros non-tendered him.
With Blanco joining Hayden Wesneski in the “See you next year! Hopefully.” club, it struck me as interesting that the Astros let Lance McCullers throw 102 pitches in his Wednesday outing vs. the Athletics. That’s eleven more than he had thrown in any of his prior four starts. McCullers holding up physically would be a huge boost, but the new essentials in the Astros’ rotation are Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. Framber has settled in to the tune of a 1.93 earned run average over his last four starts. Brown’s season ERA is 2.00. Brown has had five days of rest before all eleven of his starts this season. This Sunday is Brown’s presently next scheduled outing. He would work on four days of rest if on the mound Sunday against the Rays.
Taking the last two games from the Mariners was huge (for the second half of May anyway). Keeping the good times rolling by sweeping the two-game miniseries from the A’s was less significant but still nice. Maybe not quite nice enough to have Frank “The Tank” from the movie Old School belting out “We’re going streaking!!!” but it did give the Astros their first four game winning streak of the season. They still have not lost more than three straight.
On a heater!
Speaking of streaking, time for annual mention of one of my all-time favorite baseball factoids. The 1916 New York Giants hold the MLB record for the longest win streak with an incredible 26 in a row. Earlier in the season the Giants ripped off 17 in a row. Combine the two streaks and that’s 43-0! The 1916 New York Giants finished in fourth place. In all their other games the Giants went 43-66. The American League’s longest ever winning streak is of fairly recent vintage. The 2007 Cleveland Indians won 22 straight. There have been only two other winning streaks since 1900 of at least 20 games. The 1935 Chicago Cubs won 21 straight. The Art Howe-managed 2002 Oakland A’s won 20 in a row, and were the inspiration for the movie Moneyball. The Astros have three 12 game winning streaks as the longest in their history.
Expect the unexpected
Tuesday’s win over the A’s brought the Astros to the one-third completed point of the regular season. Isaac Paredes was definitely their best offensive player to that milepost. His “on pace for” numbers were the best on the ballclub 33 home runs and 93 runs batted in. Paredes also led in runs scored with 29. The last Astro to lead the team in all three of those categories was Alex Bregman who did it in both 2018 and 2019. That Bregman was clearly a better player than this Paredes, but Isaac healthy and making “only” 6.625 million dollars this season is a heck of a lot better value than Bregman at 40 mil for the Red Sox, especially given that while Bregman was off to a sensational start for Boston, he’s now out for at least a month with a quad injury.
Hunter Brown is on pace to win 20 games. The last Astro to get there was Gerrit Cole on the last day of the 2019 regular season. The day before that Justin Verlander won his 21st game.
The Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen was awesome last season, by far the best in the league with four relievers who each pitched in at least 74 games posting ERAs of 1.92 or lower, headlined by closer Emmanuel Clase’s microscopic 0.61. One-third of the way through this season for the Astros: Bryan Abreu sat at 1.90, Steven Okert 1.82, Josh Hader 1.57, Bryan King 1.52.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
_____________________________________________
*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!