With the season’s first third in the books and the Astros showing signs of life, despite significant injuries, the front office faces a familiar question: what exactly should be prioritized at the trade deadline?

Much of that depends on the status of Yordan Alvarez. His return looms as a pivotal moment—especially in determining whether the Astros truly need to seek out another left-handed bat. But if Alvarez is back and productive, who exactly would that bat be replacing? The only spot where it would currently make sense is second base—unlikely unless Jose Altuve returns to his former position more regularly. Otherwise, it would take a collapse from Jake Meyers to make an outfield move viable.

So, the bigger need might lie on the mound.

With three-fifths of the original rotation on the shelf, is it realistic to expect McCullers to offset the losses? If he remains healthy, history suggests he could. A career ERA of 3.54 is solid enough, and that’s roughly what should be expected—if he can avoid setbacks. But "if" does a lot of work in that sentence.

More likely, the key to surviving Blanco and Hayden Wesneski's absence is Spencer Arrighetti. His return could make or break the back end of the rotation. At a minimum, Houston needs four semi-reliable arms to push into the summer months with some level of confidence. There’s hope Arrighetti could be back in July—though GM Dana Brown’s comments on the team’s flagship station didn’t inspire much clarity. Then again, he has already begun throwing, quietly getting back to work. And don't forget about Luis Garcia. Brown said the club expects him back in late July or early August, though his repeated setbacks should give the team cause for pause.

Meanwhile, the schedule sets up favorably. With upcoming series against the Rays, Pirates, Guardians, and White Sox, the Astros are in a soft spot. Add in the fact that they’ve taken seven of their last ten against AL West opponents, and it’s not a stretch to imagine Houston sitting atop the division by the time Yordan returns—especially if the offense continues its upward trajectory.

Over the last 30 days, the numbers speak to that resurgence:

• 10th in MLB in runs
• 5th in OPS
• 6th in slugging

And even some struggling members of the offense have shown improvement in May. Yainer Díaz, who began May hitting .208, is now up to .229 with a .735 OPS over the last month. Christian Walker has trended up slightly too, with a .218 average and .620 OPS over that same stretch after opening May below the Mendoza Line.

There’s progress. There’s uncertainty. And there’s just enough runway to believe the Astros could be in control of their fate again—if the right moves are made, and if just a couple of the maybes become sure things.

There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!

^{*ChatGPT assisted.}

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