How Astros' latest wake-up call highlights now-or-never flashpoint facing Houston
MOMENT OF TRUTH
28 July
The trade deadline is right around the corner! Composite Getty Image.
If you were hoping the Houston Astros could survive their injury avalanche without reinforcements, this past week should shake that optimism. Getting swept at home by the lowly Oakland Athletics isn’t just an embarrassment, it’s a warning flare straight to GM Dana Brown’s office.
Yes, this was a wake-up call. Houston’s offense is simply too depleted to keep treading water while waiting for reinforcements. The moment Isaac Paredes went down with a hamstring injury, the offense unraveled, and the numbers back it up. In the seven days since losing their best power bat, the Astros rank 28th in runs scored, 23rd in home runs, 25th in OPS and 20th in batting average. That’s a drastic drop-off for a team that ranks second in batting average and 12th in OPS on the season.
And it’s not just Paredes’ absence. Cam Smith, one of the Astros' brightest early-season surprises, is stuck in a deep slump. Over his last seven games, he’s hitting .087. Stretch that to 15 games, and he’s at .140 with a .175 slugging percentage. That's not a cold streak — that’s a free fall. Perhaps giving him a regular spot in the batting order might provide more stability for the rookie.
Help is on the way!
So is there any hope left? In theory, yes. The pitching cavalry is on the way. Spencer Arrighetti has one more rehab start before returning. Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia are expected to follow soon after. JP France isn’t far off either. On paper, that could give Houston the rotation depth needed for another deep October push.
But theory only takes you so far. Injuries continue to mount. Just days after praising the rotation’s resilience, Brendan Rodgers showed up with elbow inflammation and Lance McCullers Jr. landed on the IL with blister issues. If the reinforcements don’t all arrive — and perform — without setbacks, the Astros could be in real trouble.
Yordan Alvarez’s situation adds another layer of anxiety. Dana Brown might be tempted to rush him back at less than full strength, and while 75% of Yordan may still be better than some of the current options, it’s a risky bet. One wrong step could lead to a setback that erases any hope of getting him at all when it matters most.
So no, Brown can’t afford to sit on his hands at the deadline. In fact, this may be the most pivotal deadline of his tenure. With Framber Valdez likely in his final stretch in Houston and the rotation still featuring two frontline arms, the window is now.
Whether or not Brown is allowed to spend aggressively could ultimately depend on Jim Crane’s willingness to cross the luxury tax line. If he greenlights an aggressive push, the Astros have enough upside, even with the injuries, to go for it. But a quiet deadline may signal that the front office sees this team as a year away.
Bottom line: if the Astros truly believe they can get Yordan and several arms back in time for a playoff push, now is the moment to act. Because after a weekend like this, it’s clear the current version of the roster isn’t enough. We'll get our answer by Thursday's deadline.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional LIVE episode this Thursday!
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The case for (and against) one massive Astros trade deadline swing
Jul 30, 2025, 11:44 am
Reports suggests the Astros have interest in Carlos Correa. Photo via: Wiki Commons.
As the Astros ready to compete against Alex Bregman during their upcoming weekend series in Boston, the never say never, but seemingly absurd rumor floated ahead of Thursday’s five PM central time trade deadline has the Astros interested in trading for… Carlos Correa.
The Astros' interest in reuniting with Carlos Correa, presumably to play third base with Paredes out, is real, a source confirms. https://t.co/5VaYuiRWuo
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) July 30, 2025
Wait, what? To play third base. While that is a strong indicator that Isaac Paredes’s severe hamstring injury is season-ending, on its face the Astros reuniting with Correa is ridiculous.
Carlos Correa has been a bad player this season. As a damning, albeit imprecise frame of reference, Correa’s Baseball Reference Wins Above Replacement number this season is the same as Brendan Rodgers and Zack Short. In 2024 Correa was tremendous, other than the not small detail of missing two months out injured. He was not a good player in 2023. In at all contemplating such a move the Astros would be seriously banking on Correa being rejuvenated returning to Houston. He has three seasons worth 96 million dollars remaining on the six-year 200 million dollar contract he signed with the Twins before the 2023 season. That’s 32 million dollars per season, which coincidentally is the same figure the Astros offered Correa when he first hit free agency after the 2021 season. Unless Jim Crane has lost every last marble, obviously the Astros would not for a second consider taking on three years 96 million to get back Correa. Even if the Twins were to send along 50 million dollars to escape as much of their present Correa obligation as they could, three years 42 million for Correa would be a dubious Astros’ move. Correa turns 31 in September.
Going forward there is no reason to expect Correa to play a better shortstop than the three years younger Jeremy Pena. Unless Isaac Paredes’s career is over or permanently hamstrung for the worse, he is the third baseman in 2026. It would be absurd to think Paredes could handle second base well. Correa sliding to second wouldn’t make sense either, unless Brice Matthews is to be a flop or traded.
Framber Valdez has been one of the best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball for going on five years now. As virtually all Astros fans know Framber becomes a free agent after the season. Taking on significant multi-year money in Correa if/while unwilling to pay at least near market rate for an elite starting pitcher would be plain ol’ stupid. Without Valdez the Astros’ 2026 starting rotation projects as Hunter Brown and nothing else but a bunch of crossed fingers and held breath. Mega-dollars pitching contracts are fraught with more risk than those for everyday players (see McCullers, Lance), but managing risk (which includes taking on some) is part of the game. Valdez will be 32 years old when he throws his first pitch next season.
Fenway bound
Back to Beantown Breggy. He and Correa may have had an interesting pregame conversation before the Red Sox and Twins finished up their series Wednesday. Despite missing two months because of a quadriceps injury, Bregman is having what projects as his best full season since his monstrous 2019 American League Most Valuable Player runner-up campaign. You knoooooow he would love to batter the Astros this weekend. The Astros arrive at Fenway Park with Bregman swinging the bat well. He homered in back-to-back games Sunday and Monday giving him 14 in 64 games played. Over 150 games that projects as 32 homers. Bregman has an interesting decision looming. He can opt in to staying with Boston for a whopping 40 million dollars next season, and have the same option for 2027 after next season. Bregman can also opt out of his contract and re-enter free agency. His 40 million dollar salary is crazy and he wouldn’t get that in a five or six year deal (unless some team is nutso and/or totally desperate). Could agent Scott Boras get Bregman 200 million over six (33.33 per season) or close? That’s what Correa re-upped with Minnesota for and the Twins have serious regret about it.
On the horizon
It’s a challenging three-stops road trip at hand for the Astros. After the three games in Boston it’s down to Miami for three. Since staggering from the gate to a 24-40 record, the Marlins have a better record than the Astros over the same time frame. From June 10 forward, in the National League only the Milwaukee Brewers have a better record than the Marlins. From Miami the Astros fly back north for three at the Yankees. To be determined whether Aaron Judge is back from injury by then. It looks doubtful. If the Astros are unable to hold on and win the American League West, it’s possible they will have to finish ahead of at either the Yanks or Bosox to secure a Wild Card. After finishing the trip, the Astros return home to face Bregman as an opponent in Houston for the first time.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!
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