How to decipher Astros GM's latest cryptic trade comments

CRACKING THE CODE

The MLB trade deadline is quickly approaching, and the Astros still have some needs to fill before they make their charge toward the postseason. Astros GM Dana Brown spoke on the team's flagship station this week and said the team's priority is now to add a starting pitcher.

Brown also said that fans shouldn't expect a “home run” trade before the deadline, but a “double” is certainly a possibility they are focusing on. So what do these terms mean as far as connecting some possible names to the team?

Well, we believe we can eliminate a few names right off the bat. Angels' Shohei Ohtani, Cubs' Marcus Stroman, Mets' Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Padres' Blake Snell should be out of contention. It's also hard this time of year knowing exactly which teams will be buyers and sellers come Aug. 1.

But what about Guardians' Shane Bieber and White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito? One could argue that their past success should count as a home run, but only Dana Brown knows for sure.

Two names we feel definitely should apply are Cardinals' Jordan Montgomery, and Tigers' Eduardo Rodriguez. Both pitchers have produced multiple seasons with at least 30 starts, but they aren't considered top targets. Montgomery's ERA has been pretty impressive, but his stuff doesn't jump off the page when it comes to advanced analytics.

Rodriguez does check some boxes for the analytics nerds, but neither Montgomery nor Rodriguez have the spin rate that the Astros are known for coveting. If spin is what the Astros crave, Padres' Seth Lugo (curveball 99th percentile spin rate) and Tigers' Michael Lorenzen (plus fastball spin rate) could appeal to the Astros. But neither pitcher has made 30 starts in one season.

If the Astros go discount shopping, they will likely have to pick between spin rate, and legit pitching pedigree and production.

Finally, is Dana Brown right to prioritize a starting pitcher over a left-handed hitter? The Astros have the second-best team ERA this year, and are 17th in OPS?

Be sure to watch the video above as we break it all down!

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What's the ceiling for Hunter Brown? Composite Getty Image.

It's no secret to Astros fans that the ascension of Hunter Brown is one of the primary reasons the team was able to rebound from a disastrous start to the season.

Astros manager Joe Espada has seen enough from Brown to start throwing around the word “ace” when talking about him.

And it appears the biggest key to Brown's turnaround was mixing in a two-seam fastball to keep right-handed hitters honest. Brown needed a pitch that could command the inside of the plate, which allows his other pitches to be more effective.

We learned just recently, from Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that Alex Bregman was the one that suggested the addition of the two-seam fastball to Brown's arsenal.

Come to find out, Bregman often shares advice on how to attack hitters. Or he'll ask pitchers why they chose a certain pitch in a specific situation.

This just goes to show that veteran leadership can make a big difference. Especially on a team with so many young pitchers and catchers. Bregman was able to help Brown when no pitching coach could.

For Brown, this small tweak could be the catalyst that changes the course of his career. And the Astros season for that matter.

However, some will say the difference in Brown is more about confidence than anything else. But confidence only builds after repeated success. Nobody knows where Brown would be without the two-seam fastball.

Looking ahead

If the Astros do make the playoffs, where will Espada slot Brown in the playoff rotation? Framber Valdez has the playoff experience, so he'll probably be penciled in as the number one starter.

Justin Verlander (neck) still isn't facing live batters, so it's hard to count on him. Ronel Blanco has been an All-Star level pitcher this season, but he doesn't have any experience pitching playoff games for the Astros.

So it wouldn't be surprising at all if Brown is the team's number two starter. In all likelihood, whoever is pitching the best at the end of the season may get the nod. But it's fun to discuss in the meantime.

Finally, how does Hunter Brown's arrival impact the Astros' plans at the trade deadline? And how could that affect Justin Verlander's future with the club?

Be sure to check out the video above for the full conversation!

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.



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