How to decipher Astros GM's latest cryptic trade comments
CRACKING THE CODE
13 July 2023
CRACKING THE CODE
The MLB trade deadline is quickly approaching, and the Astros still have some needs to fill before they make their charge toward the postseason. Astros GM Dana Brown spoke on the team's flagship station this week and said the team's priority is now to add a starting pitcher.
Brown also said that fans shouldn't expect a “home run” trade before the deadline, but a “double” is certainly a possibility they are focusing on. So what do these terms mean as far as connecting some possible names to the team?
Well, we believe we can eliminate a few names right off the bat. Angels' Shohei Ohtani, Cubs' Marcus Stroman, Mets' Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Padres' Blake Snell should be out of contention. It's also hard this time of year knowing exactly which teams will be buyers and sellers come Aug. 1.
But what about Guardians' Shane Bieber and White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito? One could argue that their past success should count as a home run, but only Dana Brown knows for sure.
Two names we feel definitely should apply are Cardinals' Jordan Montgomery, and Tigers' Eduardo Rodriguez. Both pitchers have produced multiple seasons with at least 30 starts, but they aren't considered top targets. Montgomery's ERA has been pretty impressive, but his stuff doesn't jump off the page when it comes to advanced analytics.
Rodriguez does check some boxes for the analytics nerds, but neither Montgomery nor Rodriguez have the spin rate that the Astros are known for coveting. If spin is what the Astros crave, Padres' Seth Lugo (curveball 99th percentile spin rate) and Tigers' Michael Lorenzen (plus fastball spin rate) could appeal to the Astros. But neither pitcher has made 30 starts in one season.
If the Astros go discount shopping, they will likely have to pick between spin rate, and legit pitching pedigree and production.
Finally, is Dana Brown right to prioritize a starting pitcher over a left-handed hitter? The Astros have the second-best team ERA this year, and are 17th in OPS?
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The Houston Astros didn’t just sweep the Philadelphia Phillies. They sent a message.
In three tightly contested games against one of the best teams in baseball, the Astros leaned on their elite pitching and timely offense to secure a statement sweep. Hunter Brown was electric in the finale, shutting down the Phillies’ lineup and showing the kind of dominance that’s become a defining feature of his game. Bryan Abreu slammed the door with four strikeouts to close out the win, and rookie Cam Smith delivered the deciding blow — an RBI single in the eighth to drive in Isaac Paredes, lifting the Astros to a 2-1 victory.
It wasn’t a series filled with offensive fireworks, but that’s exactly the point. Both teams sent out top-tier pitching throughout the series, and Houston was the team that kept finding a way. For much of the season, the Astros’ inconsistent offense might’ve been a concern in a series like this. But this time, it felt different. The bats showed up just enough, and the pitching did the rest.
Now, with Houston on pace for 96 wins at the halfway point, the question becomes: Is the league officially on notice?
Maybe. Maybe not. But one thing is certain, the Astros have the third-best record in baseball, they’re 17-7 in one-run games, and they’re playing with the kind of rhythm that’s defined their near-decade of dominance. Unlike last year’s uneven campaign, this version of the Astros looks like a team that’s rediscovered its edge. Whether or not they need to take care of business against the Cubs to validate it, their recent run leaves little doubt: when Houston is clicking, there are very few teams built to stop them.
Off the field, however, a bit of long-term uncertainty is starting to creep in. Reports surfaced this week that extension talks with shortstop Jeremy Peña have been put on hold as he recently signed with super-agent Scott Boras. The combination has led many to wonder if Peña might follow the same free-agent path as Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and others before him. Boras clients rarely settle early, and Peña, now one of the most valuable shortstops in the game, could command a price tag the Astros have historically avoided paying.
If Peña and even Hunter Brown are likely to get priced out of Houston, the front office may need to pivot. Isaac Paredes could be the most logical extension candidate on the roster. His approach — particularly his ability to pull the ball with authority — is tailor-made for Daikin Park and the Crawford Boxes. Last year, Paredes struggled to leave the yard at Wrigley Field, but in Houston, he’s thriving. Locking him in long term would give the Astros offensive stability and the kind of value they’ve typically targeted.
As for Cam Smith, the breakout rookie is far from free agency and will remain a cost-controlled piece for years. That’s exactly why his contributions now, like his clutch eighth-inning knock to beat Philadelphia, matter so much. He's one more reason why the Astros don’t just look good right now. They look dangerous.
And the rest of the league is starting to feel it.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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