MILLION-DOLLAR QUESTION
With the free agent market dwindling, Astros must answer next burning question(s)
Dec 13, 2022, 5:29 pm
Can the Astros fade Martin Maldonado's bat once again? Composite image by Brandon Strange.
jj catchers (1)
As coveted free agent and trade-bait catchers, including Willson Contreras and Sean Murphy, found new homes outside the Greater Houston area, I kept expecting the Astros to announce they’ve signed 2022 backup receiver Christian Vasquez … a.k.a the best available option moving forward.
Then on Monday, news broke that Vasquez had agreed to a 3-year, $30 million deal with greener (greener as in the color of money) pastures in Minnesota. Last year, the Twins signed Astros free agent Carlos Correa, now Vasquez.
Why would Vasquez choose the sub-par Twins and sub-freezing Minnesota over a sure-thing playoff team like the air-conditioned Astros? It’s simple: Vasquez wants to be a starter, as well he should. And it appears that the Astros see him as a backup backstop.
Vasquez batted .274 with a .714 OPS last year, splitting time between the Red Sox and Astros. He’s a 32-year-old veteran in the prime of his career with a lifetime .261 batting average. It was Vasquez behind the plate when four Astros pitchers combined to no-hit the Phillies in Game 4 of the 2022 World Series. He also drove in three runs in limited action during the Series. He is a decent fielding catcher and above average hitter.
As things stand now (and it’s a fluid situation, the Astros are under budget), the Astros will go another season with Martin Maldonado behind the plate.
Burning questions
The question entering 2023 is, how much longer can the Astros afford one of the all-time worst hitters (you can look it up) as their everyday catcher? At some point, will Maldonado’s weak offense rise and bite the Astros in the butt?
Maldonado is 36 years old, one of the oldest starting catchers in MLB. He’s slow. You know that promotion where the Astros invite a small child to run down the right field line, “steal a base” and return before the stopwatch hits zero? That kid can beat Maldonado in a footrace. Heinz ketchup runs faster than Maldonado. He’s slower than my Uncle Ed reaching for a dinner check. (OK, I’m done.)
Maldonado batted .186 in 2022. That would have put him dead last in the American League if he had enough at bats to qualify for the batting title.
It’s not like 2022 was a down year for Maldonado. Actually he improved his batting average from .172 in 2021. In the past four years with the Astros, Maldonado has hit .186, .172, .215 and .202. He is a lifetime .209 hitter over his 12-year career. His career postseason average is .174.
The Astros No. 9 hitter … can’t hit. In 379 plate appearances last year, he struck out 116 times.
Of course Maldonado is all about defense. He was the top-rated defensive catcher in the Major Leagues last year. He has a strong arm and quick-trigger Pop Time. That’s the time it takes between the ball landing in the catcher’s mitt and reaching the fielder on an attempted steal. Maldonado has the eighth-fasted Pop Time, 1.92 seconds. You know who’s in seventh place? Former Astros sub Garrett Stubbs. The catcher with the fastest Pop Time of all is Phillies backstop J.T. Realmuto at 1.82 seconds.
The most valuable aspect to Maldonado’s game can’t be quantified in a statistic. Astros pitchers believe in him. Verlander insisted on him. The Astros staff had a 2.90 earned run average in 2022, best in the American League. That ERA dropped to 2.29 in the postseason. Maldonado is a big reason why.
Most important, the Astros won the World Series with Maldonado behind the plate, weak offense and all. The Astros had enough firepower 1-8 to cover for Maldonado.
But … there’s always a but, right? Can the Astros continue to wreck the American League with a good-defense, no-offense catcher? Don’t bet against the Astros working a deal for another catcher for 2023.
Remember what author Michael Lewis said in Moneyball:
“The variance between the best and worst fielders on the outcome of the game is a lot smaller than the variance between the best and worst hitters.”
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Astros keep doing this, and it’s getting hard to ignore
Jun 25, 2025, 10:01 pm
While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.
The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.
Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.
As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.
The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.
VanVleet signs extension
Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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