MILLION-DOLLAR QUESTION
With the free agent market dwindling, Astros must answer next burning question(s)
Dec 13, 2022, 5:29 pm
Can the Astros fade Martin Maldonado's bat once again? Composite image by Brandon Strange.
jj catchers (1)
As coveted free agent and trade-bait catchers, including Willson Contreras and Sean Murphy, found new homes outside the Greater Houston area, I kept expecting the Astros to announce they’ve signed 2022 backup receiver Christian Vasquez … a.k.a the best available option moving forward.
Then on Monday, news broke that Vasquez had agreed to a 3-year, $30 million deal with greener (greener as in the color of money) pastures in Minnesota. Last year, the Twins signed Astros free agent Carlos Correa, now Vasquez.
Why would Vasquez choose the sub-par Twins and sub-freezing Minnesota over a sure-thing playoff team like the air-conditioned Astros? It’s simple: Vasquez wants to be a starter, as well he should. And it appears that the Astros see him as a backup backstop.
Vasquez batted .274 with a .714 OPS last year, splitting time between the Red Sox and Astros. He’s a 32-year-old veteran in the prime of his career with a lifetime .261 batting average. It was Vasquez behind the plate when four Astros pitchers combined to no-hit the Phillies in Game 4 of the 2022 World Series. He also drove in three runs in limited action during the Series. He is a decent fielding catcher and above average hitter.
As things stand now (and it’s a fluid situation, the Astros are under budget), the Astros will go another season with Martin Maldonado behind the plate.
Burning questions
The question entering 2023 is, how much longer can the Astros afford one of the all-time worst hitters (you can look it up) as their everyday catcher? At some point, will Maldonado’s weak offense rise and bite the Astros in the butt?
Maldonado is 36 years old, one of the oldest starting catchers in MLB. He’s slow. You know that promotion where the Astros invite a small child to run down the right field line, “steal a base” and return before the stopwatch hits zero? That kid can beat Maldonado in a footrace. Heinz ketchup runs faster than Maldonado. He’s slower than my Uncle Ed reaching for a dinner check. (OK, I’m done.)
Maldonado batted .186 in 2022. That would have put him dead last in the American League if he had enough at bats to qualify for the batting title.
It’s not like 2022 was a down year for Maldonado. Actually he improved his batting average from .172 in 2021. In the past four years with the Astros, Maldonado has hit .186, .172, .215 and .202. He is a lifetime .209 hitter over his 12-year career. His career postseason average is .174.
The Astros No. 9 hitter … can’t hit. In 379 plate appearances last year, he struck out 116 times.
Of course Maldonado is all about defense. He was the top-rated defensive catcher in the Major Leagues last year. He has a strong arm and quick-trigger Pop Time. That’s the time it takes between the ball landing in the catcher’s mitt and reaching the fielder on an attempted steal. Maldonado has the eighth-fasted Pop Time, 1.92 seconds. You know who’s in seventh place? Former Astros sub Garrett Stubbs. The catcher with the fastest Pop Time of all is Phillies backstop J.T. Realmuto at 1.82 seconds.
The most valuable aspect to Maldonado’s game can’t be quantified in a statistic. Astros pitchers believe in him. Verlander insisted on him. The Astros staff had a 2.90 earned run average in 2022, best in the American League. That ERA dropped to 2.29 in the postseason. Maldonado is a big reason why.
Most important, the Astros won the World Series with Maldonado behind the plate, weak offense and all. The Astros had enough firepower 1-8 to cover for Maldonado.
But … there’s always a but, right? Can the Astros continue to wreck the American League with a good-defense, no-offense catcher? Don’t bet against the Astros working a deal for another catcher for 2023.
Remember what author Michael Lewis said in Moneyball:
“The variance between the best and worst fielders on the outcome of the game is a lot smaller than the variance between the best and worst hitters.”
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How 3 major x-factors could tip the scales in Texans-Colts: Week 1
Sep 5, 2024, 7:27 pm
Each football game of a season carries much more weight than one game in a 162 Major League Baseball schedule. That reality, combined with the National Football League campaign opening and with it the most anticipated season in Texans’ history, the Astros are relegated to second banana this weekend. Just the way it goes despite the Astros’ phenomenal extended run from 10 games out of first place in mid-June to now having control of the American League West race and a likely (though definitely not yet certain) eighth consecutive year of postseason play.
It is reality that getting swept out of Cincinnati cost the Astros two games in the standings to Seattle the last two days and trimmed their division lead to four and a half games going into this weekend. There was nothing shameful about getting swept. It’s not as if they choked. They got outplayed and beaten in all three games. Stuff happens within a 162-game season. The 2019 Astros were vastly better than the 2024 Astros. The 2019 ‘Stros posted the best record in franchise history at 107-55. In Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole they had the two best pitchers in the AL. The Reds finished 75-87 in ’19. In the lone Astros-Reds series five years ago, Verlander and Cole started two of the three games. The Reds swept the Astros out of Cincy by scores of 3-2, 4-3, and 3-2. Stuff happens. The following week the Astros called up Yordan Alvarez. There is no Yordan coming to fortify the offense now, but wait! Is that Kyle Tucker's music?
The Astros host the NL champs this weekend
It’s highly unlikely but it’s still a possible World Series preview at Minute Maid Park this weekend with the Astros home for three games versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. The reigning National League Champions woke up under .500 July 11, but since then have been sizzling with 33 wins against just 15 losses. Over the same time frame the Astros are 27-21. The Diamondbacks by a large margin have scored the most runs in MLB this season, and that’s while playing the last nearly three weeks without Ketel Marte because of a high ankle sprain. Marte has been far and away the best second baseman in the game this year. He may return this weekend in a designated hitter role. The Arizona offense overall has been sensational, however it has vulnerability against left-handed pitching, in significant part because it typically takes lefty-hitting platoon beast Joc Pederson out of the lineup. The D’Backs are 55-35 in games facing right-handed starters, just 24-27 in games started by opposing southpaws. The Astros have lefties Framber Valdez and Yusei Kikuchi set to go in the first two games this weekend. While the Astros deal with the Diamondbacks the Mariners are in St. Louis for three against the Cardinals.
Eleven Diamondbacks have had at least 200 plate appearances this season. Only one of them has an OPS below .725. The Astros also have 11 guys with at least 200 PAs. Five of them lug around sub-.715 OPSes: Jeremy Pena (.714), Jake Meyers (.664), Mauricio Dubon (.645), Jon Singleton (.697), and Chas McCormick (.566).
Maximizing Tucker's return
Speaking of returns, Tucker fiiiiiiinally should see action for the first time since his June 3 bone bruise. Oh wait, broken leg. Shame on the Astros for their BSing over this and other injuries. Yeah, Alex Bregman slept funny. Whatever. To boost the lineup Tucker doesn’t have to be the .979 OPS MVP candidate he was when felled. Ben Gamel has done some good work, but over time he’s Ben Gamel. Same for Jason Heyward. If Tucker's legs are under him his power is a B-12 shot and only Yordan is in his league in on-base percentage. Joe Espada has decisions to make as to how slot the batting order. Against a right-handed starter Jose Altuve, Tucker, Alvarez, Yainer Diaz, Bregman one through five makes sense with Tucker dropping down below Yainer against a left-handed starter. No question those are the top five in some order. How much of a workload Tucker is ready for bears watching. Presumably he doesn’t initially play the outfield day in day out. When Tucker DHs obviously Bregman (and Yordan) can’t so Alex’s ailing elbow holding up is key. One might say hopefully the bone chips don’t fall where they may. Tuesday the Astros start a stretch playing 16 days in a row.
Keep hope alive!
If you’re an Astros fan holding out hope of chasing down the second seed to avoid having to play the best-of-three Wild Card series, say it with me, whatever nausea it may induce: “Go Dodgers Go!” Hurt as it might, business is business. The Dodgers play host to the Guardians. The Astros trail Cleveland by five games with just 22 to play, but do finish the regular season with three games at Cleveland. It's pretty much over for the Astros to catch both the Orioles and Yankees.
Season-long trends mean nothing once the playoffs start, and that’s a good thing for the Astros provided they are in the playoffs. They continue to flat out stink in close games. Thursday’s 1-0 loss to the Reds has the Astros record in one-run games at 15-24. In two-run games they are 10-14. Correlatively, the Astros also continue to routinely fail late in close games. The Astros have played 14 games that were tied after seven innings. They have lost 11 of the 14. In games tied after eight innings they are 7-13. Every team loses an extremely high percentage of games when trailing after eight innings, but the Astros haven’t pulled out a single game they’ve trailed going to the ninth. 0-50. Oh and fifty. But hey, the White Sox are 0-92!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.