MILLION-DOLLAR QUESTION
With the free agent market dwindling, Astros must answer next burning question(s)
Dec 13, 2022, 5:29 pm
MILLION-DOLLAR QUESTION
As coveted free agent and trade-bait catchers, including Willson Contreras and Sean Murphy, found new homes outside the Greater Houston area, I kept expecting the Astros to announce they’ve signed 2022 backup receiver Christian Vasquez … a.k.a the best available option moving forward.
Then on Monday, news broke that Vasquez had agreed to a 3-year, $30 million deal with greener (greener as in the color of money) pastures in Minnesota. Last year, the Twins signed Astros free agent Carlos Correa, now Vasquez.
Why would Vasquez choose the sub-par Twins and sub-freezing Minnesota over a sure-thing playoff team like the air-conditioned Astros? It’s simple: Vasquez wants to be a starter, as well he should. And it appears that the Astros see him as a backup backstop.
Vasquez batted .274 with a .714 OPS last year, splitting time between the Red Sox and Astros. He’s a 32-year-old veteran in the prime of his career with a lifetime .261 batting average. It was Vasquez behind the plate when four Astros pitchers combined to no-hit the Phillies in Game 4 of the 2022 World Series. He also drove in three runs in limited action during the Series. He is a decent fielding catcher and above average hitter.
As things stand now (and it’s a fluid situation, the Astros are under budget), the Astros will go another season with Martin Maldonado behind the plate.
Burning questions
The question entering 2023 is, how much longer can the Astros afford one of the all-time worst hitters (you can look it up) as their everyday catcher? At some point, will Maldonado’s weak offense rise and bite the Astros in the butt?
Maldonado is 36 years old, one of the oldest starting catchers in MLB. He’s slow. You know that promotion where the Astros invite a small child to run down the right field line, “steal a base” and return before the stopwatch hits zero? That kid can beat Maldonado in a footrace. Heinz ketchup runs faster than Maldonado. He’s slower than my Uncle Ed reaching for a dinner check. (OK, I’m done.)
Maldonado batted .186 in 2022. That would have put him dead last in the American League if he had enough at bats to qualify for the batting title.
It’s not like 2022 was a down year for Maldonado. Actually he improved his batting average from .172 in 2021. In the past four years with the Astros, Maldonado has hit .186, .172, .215 and .202. He is a lifetime .209 hitter over his 12-year career. His career postseason average is .174.
The Astros No. 9 hitter … can’t hit. In 379 plate appearances last year, he struck out 116 times.
Of course Maldonado is all about defense. He was the top-rated defensive catcher in the Major Leagues last year. He has a strong arm and quick-trigger Pop Time. That’s the time it takes between the ball landing in the catcher’s mitt and reaching the fielder on an attempted steal. Maldonado has the eighth-fasted Pop Time, 1.92 seconds. You know who’s in seventh place? Former Astros sub Garrett Stubbs. The catcher with the fastest Pop Time of all is Phillies backstop J.T. Realmuto at 1.82 seconds.
The most valuable aspect to Maldonado’s game can’t be quantified in a statistic. Astros pitchers believe in him. Verlander insisted on him. The Astros staff had a 2.90 earned run average in 2022, best in the American League. That ERA dropped to 2.29 in the postseason. Maldonado is a big reason why.
Most important, the Astros won the World Series with Maldonado behind the plate, weak offense and all. The Astros had enough firepower 1-8 to cover for Maldonado.
But … there’s always a but, right? Can the Astros continue to wreck the American League with a good-defense, no-offense catcher? Don’t bet against the Astros working a deal for another catcher for 2023.
Remember what author Michael Lewis said in Moneyball:
“The variance between the best and worst fielders on the outcome of the game is a lot smaller than the variance between the best and worst hitters.”
Sunday night matchups don't get much exciting than this, as the Houston Texans host the Detroit Lions in prime-time at NRG.
The Lions come into this game on a six-game winning streak looking every bit of the best team in football. Houston on the other hand has lost two of their last three games with a struggling offense unable to protect their quarterback.
CJ Stroud has only one passing touchdown over this span, and is clearly having trouble adjusting to life without Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins.
If Houston is going to come away with an upset victory, they will need big performances from Tank Dell and Joe Mixon. After catching 4 passes against the Colts two weeks ago, Mixon not only failed to catch a single pass against the Jets, but he wasn't even targeted.
Considering the Texans' offensive line issues, choosing not to use Mixon as a pass catcher is hard to fathom. Especially since he and Dell are the team's top 2 playmakers.
What's working in the Texans' favor?
They play this game at home, where they are undefeated this season. A lot of the team's protection issues have popped up on the road, so communication should be easier for the offense on their home turf.
Bulls on Parade
We have good news and bad news about the defense this week. On the positive side, Azeez Al-Shaair and Jimmy Ward have returned to practice. If they're able to contribute on Sunday night, that would give the defense a lift.
And now for the bad news. Will Anderson has yet to practice this week after rolling his ankle in the Jets game. If he is unable to practice on Friday, it's hard to imagine he'll be active against Detroit.
X-factors
The Texans have to show some improvement on the offensive line this week.
Houston must lean on Joe Mixon again, as Nico Collins isn't expected to play.
Lions' Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the best receivers in the league, and he does most of his damage from the slot. If the Texans continue to deploy Jalen Pitre against premier receivers in man coverage, St. Brown is going to light up the scoreboard.
What would a win over the Lions mean to Houston?
The Texans are no longer considered a true championship contender because of their losses to the Packers, Vikings, and Jets. In fact, the Bills are the only team with a winning record that the Texans have beaten.
An upset win over the streaking Lions would change that narrative.
What does Vegas think?
The Lions are currently favored by 3.5 and the total is set at 49 points.
Don't miss the full preview of Texans-Lions in the video above!
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