THE PALLILOG

If you need even more validation of Astros championship formula, consider this

If you need even more validation of Astros championship formula, consider this
José Abreu looks like a bargain for the Astros. Composite image by Brandon Strange.

Tuesday marked 79 days before the Astros open their regular season March 30 against the Chicago White Sox. What’s the big deal about 79 days? Nothing, but it creates a segue to digging deeper on the Astros’ big free agent acquisition of the offseason. That is first baseman José Abreu who will become the first Astro ever to wear number 79 in a regular season game. Aside: three players have worn number 99 for the Astros. If you can name all three you are either A. a cheater or B. an Astros savant of the highest echelon. Answer at the end of the column.

At the point the Astros signed José Abreu, going to three years at 19 and a half million dollars per season for the soon-to-be 36-year-old seemed a bit long and pricey. Now after the drunken sailor spending in so many other places this offseason, three years 58.5 mil for Abreu seems a bargain. It certainly will be if he produces at his recent level of performance. Should Abreu drop off mildly from his 2022 showing, he’d still be a marked offensive upgrade over Yuli Gurriel. La Piña tumbled over and down the hill last season though at least he delivered some in the postseason. Still, Abreu’s average offensive season over his eight big league seasons is better than Yuli’s best season. Abreu’s home run power dropped off sharply in 2022. In fact it was cut in half: 30 homers in 2021, just 15 last year (and with 35 more at bats). Concerning? Sure. But while the power declined, his batting average and on base percentage improved. Abreu’s .301 average combined with a career high 62 walks gave him an outstanding .378 OBP. Yuli is the better defensive first baseman of the two (Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña, and Alex Bregman may all have moments where they think “Yuli would have saved me an error on that one.”) but Abreu is no clod there. Unless he falls off a cliff, the rich get richer with Abreu succeeding Gurriel.

Presuming Jeremy Peña gets to pick up where he left off in the batting order (second), Abreu may slot in the six spot behind Altuve, Peña, Yordan Alvarez, Bregman, and Kyle Tucker. That’s one heck of a six-hole threat. In 1268 career starts with the White Sox, no manager ever wrote in Abreu lower than fifth in the batting order (and only six times did he bat fifth).

Father Time gets all who battle him until the end, but until we see it happen, Abreu can be counted upon as a durable and productive performer. Frame of reference time. Carlos Correa (how about the way his free agent ship sailed?) has been on a big league roster for a full-length season six times. In only two of them has he played 136 or more games. José Abreu has eight full-length seasons on his resume, in only two of them has he played fewer than 152 games.

No shortage of Abreus in Houston

The best baseball-playing Abreu of all-time (Bobby) began his career with the Astros, the second best (José) looks to end his career with them. After his explosion to excellence last seat season, Astros’ reliever Bryan Abreu seems in a good spot to be the third best ever Abreu. There have been nine Abreus to make it to the Majors.

Wild stuff

Astros number 99 wearers. The first was “The Wild Thing” Mitch Williams. After having a 43 save season with the 1993 Phillies end with his giving up Joe Carter’s World Series-ending home run, Williams was dealt to the Astros. His Houston tenure was brief and worse than miserable. A 7.65 earned run average with 24 walks allowed in 20 innings pitched got Williams released less than two months into the season.

Two seasons later Furr High School grad and ex-Houston Cougar Anthony Young finished his big league career pitching for his hometown team. Young holds a crummy Major League record it’s hard to see being broken. Over two seasons with the New York Mets in 1992 and ’93 Young lost 27 consecutive decisions. After battling an inoperable brain tumor Anthony Young died tragically young at 51 in 2017.

The most recent Astro number 99 would be only be recalled by his relatives. Some of his relatives. Rudy Owens made the start on the mound for the Astros May 23, 2014 at Seattle. He took the loss after giving up five earned runs in five and two-thirds innings. That was the first and last big league game in which Rudy Owens pitched.

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Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are hot names at the Winter Meetings. Composite Getty Image.

The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.

The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.

Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.

Back to Bregman

Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.

While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.

Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.

Bang for your buck

Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.

Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.

Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.

The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

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