SUPER BOWL BREAKDOWN
Barry Laminack: A statistical look at the Patriots-Eagles matchup
Feb 1, 2018, 10:54 am
Nick Foles and the Eagles match up well with the Patriots. Philadelphiaeagles.com
It's Super Bowl week!
I'm a stats dork at heart (I think oftentimes they can tell us what to expect, if we are looking at the right ones) so I'm going to break down the Eagles and Patriots statistically based on what I think are the most important stats to consider when evaluating the two teams.
I'm not going to bore you with a bunch of stats you've never heard of because, while I might personally dig that kind of thing, I don't think you have to complicate things to compare the teams for an expected outcome.
When you compare the two teams regular season's it's uncanny how similar of a year they had both offensively and defensively. Of course, you have to keep in mind that the Eagles amassed most of their offensive stats when Carson Wentz was at the helm, but I threw in some postseason/post-Wentz stats as well.
OK, Lets get after it.
OFFENSE
When it comes to offensive statistics the only two stats I really care about are points per game and turnovers. The rest of it, in my opinion, is noise.
It's crazy but when comparing the two teams, they actually averaged the exact same amount of points per game in the regular season, 28.6. The only team to average more per game was the L.A. Rams, who averaged 29.9 a game.
Postseason scoring tells a different story, however. The Patriots put up 35 against the Titans and 24 against a stingy Jaguars defense. The Eagles only managed 15 against the Falcons before surprising everyone and scoring 31 offensive points (plus 7 more on an interception return) against the stingiest defense in the regular season, the Minnesota Vikings.
As far as turning the ball over, the Patriots did a much better job of taking care of the football during the regular season only giving it up 12 times, the second best in the NFL. The Eagles were 11th with 20 turnovers, nine in the air, 11 via fumble.
Here’s a chart comparing the two teams key offensive stats during the regular season:
Points/Game – (rank) | Giveaways (Int/Fum) – (rank) | |
Eagles | 28.6 – (2nd) | 20 (9/11) – (11th) |
Patriots | 28.6 – (2nd) | 12 (8/4) – (2nd) |
DEFENSE
On defense I like to look at three key stats that, in my opinion, have a direct impact on the games outcome: points allowed, sacks, and takeaways.
Much like on offense, it's crazy how close both of these defenses are when it comes to points allowed and sacks during the regular season. Philly gave up 18.4 points a game and the Patriots allowed 18.5. The Eagles also bested the Patriots by only 1 when it came to getting after the quarterback, piling up 36 sacks to the Patriots 35.
The separator between these two defenses is forcing turnovers. Philly was much better at taking the ball away - forcing 19 interceptions and 12 fumbles, ranking fourth in the NFL with 31 total takeaways. The Patriots recovered just six fumbles all year. Combine that with their 12 interceptions and their defense was one of the worst in the NFL at taking the ball away (25th)
Here's a chart comparing the two teams key defensive stats during the regular season:
Def Pts/G | Sacks | Takeaways (Int/Fum) – (rank) | |
Eagles | 18.4 (4th) | 36 (17th) | 31 (19/12) – (4th) |
Patriots | 18.5 (5th) | 35 (18th) | 18 (12/6) – (25th) |
IN SUMMARY
As you can see, the two teams are pretty similar in offensive and defensive points per game. The separation really occurs in the turnover department. The Patriots strength was taking care of the ball, while Philly did a much better job of forcing turnovers.
And while it might seem cliche' - and since the teams are so similar to each other in just about every other key stat - look for the game to come down to who takes care of ball.
I like New England to win 24-21.
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C.J. Stroud threw for 345 yards and two touchdowns, capped by a 1-yard pass to Dare Ogunbowale with 18 seconds left, to give the Houston Texans a 24-20 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.
Houston forced a three-and-out to get the ball back with less than three minutes to go.
Stroud then led a nine-play, 69-yard drive to give the Texans (3-1) their first points of the second half and survive a scare by the winless Jaguars (0-4).
The Texans bounced back from a 34-7 rout at Minnesota to get the victory despite fumbling a punt return early and committing 12 penalties to give them 35 combined in their past three games.
Nico Collins helped Houston to the win with 12 receptions for 151 yards and a TD for his third 100-yard game this season.
Trevor Lawrence threw for 169 yards and two touchdowns as his streak of consecutive starts without a win stretched to nine games.
The Jaguars fell to 0-4 for the first time since opening the 2021 season with five straight losses.
After getting blown out by the Bills on Monday, they had plenty of chances in this one. They led through much of the second half after a touchdown reception by Christian Kirk with about six minutes left in the third.
They had a chance to pad the lead after that when a 58-yard run by Tank Bigsby got them to the Houston 4. Two runs by Bigsby moved them to the 2 before an incomplete pass by Lawrence.
Jacksonville went for it, but Lawrence was stopped for no gain on the first play of the fourth quarter.
Ogunbowale grabbed a short pass and evaded three defenders for a 31-yard gain on third-and-18 on Houston’s next drive.
But the Texans couldn’t do anything after that. They had a run for no gain, a holding penalty on left tackle Laremy Tunsil and an incomplete pass before Stroud was sacked to force a punt.
Derek Stingley knocked down Lawrence’s pass to force a punt with about six minutes left.
The Texans couldn’t get anything going on their next drive that ended with a holding penalty on Tunsil followed by two incomplete passes.
Kirk put the Jaguars up 20-17 with an 8-yard TD grab with about six minutes left in the third quarter. Brian Thomas powered that drive with a 32-yard reception and a 13-yard run.
The Texans forced a punt on Jacksonville’s opening drive, but Steven Sims fumbled it, and it was recovered by Daniel Thomas at the 2. Lawrence connected with Brian Thomas Jr. on the next play to give the Jaguars an early lead.
Houston tied it when Stefon Diggs scored his first career rushing touchdown on a 6-yard run with about 7½ minutes left in the opening quarter.
The Jaguars were up 10-7 after a field goal before a 3-yard touchdown reception by Collins put Houston on top 14-10.
Jacksonville added a 52-yard field goal with about four minutes left in the second quarter to cut the lead to 14-13.
The Texans led 17-13 at halftime after a 30-yard field goal by Ka’imi Fairbairn with 3 seconds left in the second quarter.
Be sure to watch the video above as the crew from Texans on Tap reacts live to the win!
Injuries
Jaguars: DE Josh Hines-Allen left the game in the fourth quarter to be evaluated for a concussion.
Texans: RBs Joe Mixon (ankle) and Dameon Pierce (hamstring) sat out with injuries. … Tank Dell missed the game with hand and rib injuries.
Up next
Jaguars: Host the Colts next Sunday.
Texans: Host the Bills next Sunday.