sweet relief
Examining the art and agony of building a championship-caliber bullpen
Nov 12, 2024, 4:13 pm
The Astros have heavily invested in their bullpen in recent years. Composite Getty Image.
For a World Series that was supposed to feature an epic battle between sluggers Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, guys like Mark Leiter Jr., Luke Weaver, Alex Vesia and Anthony Banda sure got a lot of face time.
This year's Fall Classic provided further proof that a great bullpen is essential in baseball, particularly in the postseason. It also has led to concerns from people ranging from superagent Scott Boras to players' association head Tony Clark that the sport is abusing arms.
Regardless, building a quality bullpen remains a challenge.
“You need so many arms over the course of the season, and in the postseason, it’s even more magnified,” Los Angeles Angels general manager Perry Minasian said. “Quality arms, quality strikes. But quantity is a big deal, too. Where do you get it?”
The bullpen is usually an afterthought for casual baseball fans, particularly middle relievers, who don't get the spotlight of the ninth inning. They toil in relative anonymity while getting tough outs in tough situations and are much like NFL offensive linemen — noticed only when something goes terribly wrong.
The Dodgers used Vesia, Banda and Michael Kopech in four out of the five games of the World Series while Blake Treinen and Brusdar Graterol appeared in three games. They combined to throw 15 1/3 innings — often in high-leverage situations — and gave up five runs.
That's a 2.93 ERA.
For a bunch of guys only serious seamheads know, that's not too shabby.
“I have a lot of good players, and they understand that it’s about getting 27 outs a night,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said. “It could be anyone at any given moment.”
Building a big league bullpen is intriguing because cost isn't really the prohibitive factor, making it arguably the most egalitarian position in a sport that doesn't have a salary cap. Banda ($740,000), Vesia ($1 million), Treinen ($1 million), Kopech ($3 million) and Graterol ($2.7 million) made pocket change compared with their teammate Ohtani, who signed a record $700 million, 10-year deal last offseason.
Instead, it comes down to scouting, development and sometimes dumb luck. It's sometimes more art than science.
“I wish we knew,” said Erik Neander, Tampa Bay's president of baseball operations. “We would have won more games last year.”
Boras is among those who aren’t pleased with the way relievers are being used. Clay Holmes pitched for the Yankees in all five games of the World Series and there’s little doubt that pitchers — particularly relievers — are being pushed to exhaustion in October.
“We have got to stop burning up our beautiful young arms by pitching them in a way, in a manner, that we would never do during the (regular) season,” Boras said Wednesday.
Over the past 10 years, the average fastball velocity has risen from 93.3 mph to 95.5 during the 2024 regular season. Injury rates also have skyrocketed, with 484 pitchers going on the injured list this year, nearly double the 2014 total.
Regardless of how GMs feel about bullpen usage, the injury explosion is one more reason that finding consistent relievers is a difficult task.
Using valuable young arms in the bullpen is risky, but pursuing veteran relievers in free agency is also a crapshoot. Take the case of Treinen, a 36-year-old who has had a career that typifies the ups and downs of being a reliever.
He was an All-Star in 2018 with the Oakland Athletics, with a microscopic 0.78 ERA and 100 strikeouts over 80 1/3 innings. The next year, he fell off drastically with a 4.91 ERA.
The Dodgers thought he could bounce back in 2020 and they were right — he had a solid season and helped lead LA to a World Series title. It went so well that the Dodgers signed him to a two-year deal after the season. He was great again in 2021 but suffered a serious shoulder injury and missed almost the entire 2022 season.
He signed an extension but missed the 2023 season with the same shoulder injury and didn't return until 2024, when he bounced back again with a 1.93 ERA and another championship.
Now Treinen is back on the market.
“You can look at it multiple ways,” said Minasian, who was speaking generally and not about Treinen. “You might say: 'Wow, he's taken the ball a ton. He's been used drastically over the last three, four years, so I'm not sure what it's going to look like going forward,' or it could be: ‘Hey, he’s held up. He pitches. He's been consistent and takes the ball.'”
Astros GM Dana Brown weighs in
The Houston Astros are a team that's had a great bullpen over the last several years with pitchers like Hector Neris and Ryan Pressly. General manager Dana Brown said there's always volatility in the bullpen, but that's not all due to injuries.
“It's just the game today,” Brown said. “You have all this information, and sometimes the hitters, they study you. The film — they look at it. They find your weak spots and try to exploit you.”
Brown said one quality he likes in relievers is a sense of humility, understanding that they might have to change their strategy on the mound as their body deals with a long career.
“The guys who don't have a teachable spirit, or the aptitude, they sometimes get lost in the sauce,” Brown said.
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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