THE PALLILOG
Astros have to wonder if history will repeat itself with Yankees in town
Jul 9, 2021, 10:40 am
Could the Astros lose another star player to the Yankees in free agency? Composite image by Jack Brame.
Astros have to wonder if history will repeat itself with Yankees in town
The Astros failing to cap a three game sweep of the A's was a missed opportunity, but credit to Oakland for a day. Winning another series has the Astros four and a half games out front in the American League West. There's a lot of baseball left but if you are offered the Astros today at 1:3 odds to win the division (making them 75% likely to win it), taking them is the right play. Oakland is usually outstanding at getting more out of less, and one never knows how the injury bug is to bite, and lastly sports happens. Still, it's crystal clear that the Astros have the better team.
Now the Yankees are in for the weekend, presenting an excellent opportunity for Astros' fans to take the high road and greatly outclass the Yankees' fans who had nothing more creative up their sleeves and in their vocal cords than to chant vulgarities over nine innings for three games in a row when the Astros were in the Bronx back in May. There no doubt will be some Yankee fans inside Minute Maid Park, and it seems likely more vulgarities will ensue. Neither the language I use in everyday life off the radio nor my sense of humor are G-rated pure as the driven snow stuff. But there is time and place. A Major League ballpark is not such a time or place. It would be tremendous if Astro fan retorts were along the lines of "Kiss Our Rings, Kiss Our Rings..." or "En-joy Fourth Place, (bum, bum, BUM, BUM, BUM), Enjoy Fourth Place…"
I'm cautiously pessimistic.
The highlight pitching matchup of the series is Saturday night with Zack Greinke opposite Gerrit Cole. The Yankees last losing season was 1992. That's 28 consecutive winning seasons! They hit town this weekend at 44-42. Their supposed to be vaunted offense has been feeble much of 2021. The Astros have scored a whopping 130 more runs than have the Yankees. The Astros have played two more games. I'm pretty sure the Yankees wouldn't make up 130 runs in two games.
Could the Yankees target Carlos Correa in free agency?
Astros' MVP to this point? Carlos Correa. Carrying an 0 for 13 streak into the weekend, Correa has cooled off from the MVP level ball he'd played for over a month, but he has an outstanding season going starting with the critical ability that is availability. Correa has played in 82 of the Astros 88 games to date. He only missed two games in the short 2020 60 game regular season, but wasn't a good player. In 2017, 2018, and 2019 Correa missed 53, 52, and 87 games respectively. Only in 2016 has Correa stayed healthy and played well over a full length campaign. He was very good in '16, but not what 2021 Correa has been thus far. So…
Yankee shortstop Gleyber Torres has been awful this year. Even when hitting to potential he's not a good defender at short. The Yankees could miss the postseason for the first time since 2016. They haven't played in the World Series since 2009. Unless the Dodgers opt to move on from Corey Seager, the Yanks loom as the biggest spending team that could be in the market for Correa.
Are you ready for some football?
The Texans open training camp three weeks from today. Are you giddy with excitement? Didn't think so. What happens if Deshaun Watson shows up? I'm not sure he actually shows, but he has incentive to at least claim he's going to do so. If Watson holds out he incurs automatic fines of 50-thousand dollars per day. If Watson sends word that he plans to show, that creates multiple possibilities. The big one is making NFL commissioner Roger Goodell act, specifically by placing Watson on the Commissioner's Exempt List if the league wants no part of a Watson/Texans circus while the league investigation of all the sordid accusations against Watson continues. If Goodell places Watson on the list, Watson can't be a holdout and hence could not be fined. If on the list all season Watson would be paid in full. If Goodell chooses to not sideline Watson, do the Texans say "stay away," in which case they'd have to pay Watson, or welcome him in? In which case would Watson actually show or having had his bluff called hold out and forfeit 50K per day? As The Texans Turn. Right now, a pretty pathetic soap opera.
Buzzer Beaters:
1. So James Harden is in France for Paris Fashion Week. Taking advantage of again not being part of NBA Finals weeks. If not so focused on his task at hand one presumes Chris Paul would find this quite funny.
2. Here's hoping Dustin Poirier again dominates Conor McGregor, the way he did in January.
3. Best soap operas: Bronze-Days of Our Lives Silver-Melrose Place Gold-Dallas
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It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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