GAMBLING GUIDE

Championship weekend gambling guide: Georgia on my mind

Look for a big effort from Georgia this weekend. UGAFootballlive.com

Originally appeared on Houstonsportsandstuff.com.

Everyone knows Auburn is very good. Their recent run of success is the most impressive in college football this year. Without a doubt they are one of the best teams in the country.

However, the situational spot for Georgia sets up perfectly from a betting perspective in four different ways.

  1. Georgia got humiliated a few weeks ago at Auburn 40-17. Georgia looked confused on offense and never established the run. Auburn forced them to pass and it was gross. Gus Malzahn was caught on tape saying Auburn “beat the dawg s*it out of them.” Georgia heard. Georgia remembers.
  2. The recent success of Auburn has taken a toll on Auburn’s backfield. They have played two different No. 1 teams in the country in the last three weeks. The Auburn kids are in for a letdown- and their health, especially Kerryon Johnson -- will play a factor. He could barely stand up straight last week at the end of the game. You could make the argument that Auburn does not have a running back at 100%. The running backs are key in Malzahn’s offense. If they are still banged up, it will mean trouble for Auburn.
  3. Guz Malzahn could leave Auburn for Arkansas. Don’t laugh. Malzahn has deep ties to Northern Arkansas where he was a high school football coach and his wife loves it there. Arkansas is home to Malzahn and some people think he is tired of the politics at Auburn. Malzahn always seems to be on the hot seat at Auburn and rumors of him coaching for his job surface every year. He could return home to Arkansas and coach for 20 years. Regardless of if he leaves or not, Arkansas is a distraction.
  4. Just a few weeks ago Georgia was a favorite playing in Auburn. Fast forward three weeks and they are underdogs? Georgia is healthier, has revenge, and fewer distractions. The line is begging you to take Auburn.

I am playing Georgia three different ways. First half. Full game. Money line. I also have them tied up in several different parlays. This is my largest play of the year.

No one is talking about Georgia right now, but they will after this week.

Good luck on your wagers this weekend.

Direct all hate mail to @jayoff288 I will be on Twitter all weekend.

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The Texans host the Steelers at NRG this Sunday. Composite Getty Image.

What: Texans vs. Steelers

When: 10/1 12pm CST kickoff

Where: Houston, TX NRG Stadium

TV/Radio: KHOU-TV, KILT-Radio

Betting Lines: Steelers -2.5 (-120), O/U 42 (-110) *As of this writing

The Watt Brother Bowl takes place on Sunday. I'm calling it that because the Texans are honoring their all-time great J.J. while they're playing his younger brother and current hell raising edge rusher for the Steelers T.J. The Steelers have won four of the last five matchups vs. the Texans by an average score of 28-17. The biggest difference is that the Steelers have a second year starter at quarterback in Kenny Pickett, and the Texans have a rookie in C.J. Stroud. When you look at the two quarterbacks, both organizations have full faith in each guy. Both teams have tried to build a defense to help their young signal callers. Both are still trying to surround their franchise guys with weapons.

When the Steelers have the ball: Here's a game where Will Anderson Jr can make headway as a proven EDGE. Stacking consistent performances together and helping your team win games by making winning plays. It helps that Pickett has tiny hands. This was a knock on him during draft season last year. Hand size for a quarterback impacts grip. That can not only impact accuracy, but it could make it easier to strip the ball from him.

While he doesn't have the weapons to torch this defense, Pickett does hand the ball off to Najee Harris who's more than capable. Averaging only 67 yards rushing as a team can't be taken lightly. Denzel Perryman is expected to miss the game Sunday, so hopefully that won't help jumpstart the Steelers' run game. The Texans defense will have to key in on the run, given that they average giving up 117 a game on the ground. Those aforementioned weapons may not be scary, but the injuries to the defensive backs has hurt. Tavierre Thomas is expected to miss the game recovering from hand surgery. Jimmie Ward coming back last week showed what happens when they have a top safety back there, especially when the pass rush is turning up. Hopefully, the Texans can capitalize again this week, with safety Jalen Pitre expected to return to action.

When the Texans have the ball: Good luck stopping Tank Dell and Stroud! These guys have already established themselves as a formidable duo three games into their careers. A great way to get that connection going is to pound the rock. The Steelers are giving up over 150 yards on the ground per game so far this season. That's also a good way to keep T.J. at bay while J.J. watches. With Laremy Tunsil and Josh Jones both expected to miss the game, here are the offensive line starters: Austin Deculus, Kendrick Green, Jarrett Patterson, Shaq Mason, and George Fant.

Making the younger Watt brother slow down a bit instead of going balls to the wall after Stroud because a run could be coming will help the pass game tremendously. Stroud will have to continue to make quick decisions, but even quicker this game. I wouldn't be surprised to see his first pick of his career here, given the pressure he's most likely to be under. Especially when your offensive line starters were mostly all backups to begin this season.

Outcome: I failed to place a money line bet on the Texans last week because the game started and the live bet wasn't as profitable. I wanted to take a chance on them given their recent record against the Jags. Looking at their last five vs. the Steelers, one would say why make that bet this week? It's because I believe in Stroud more than I believe in Pickett. While T.J. Watt is a different kind of monster, Will Anderson Jr is on his way to becoming something special. Texans win/cover, and hit the over, but barely: Texans 24, Steelers 20.

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