THE PALLILOG
Charlie Pallilo: What's next for Rockets-Warriors, and appreciating Verlander's brilliance
May 18, 2018, 6:39 am
Justin Verlander is doing sick things as an Astro. Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images
Do the Rockets carry momentum into Sunday’s night Western Conference Final Game 3? Nah. If they have the momentum now, who had it after the Warriors slapped the Rockets silly in the second half of Game 1? Momentum must be generated anew in each game. The Rockets’ Game 2 blowout win was a phenomenal response in a game where all the pressure was on them. Pressure turns coal into diamonds. Pressure can also burst pipes. The Rockets’ plumbing turned out to be just fine in their direly needed multi-carat response to having dropped Game 1 at home. Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker, and Trevor Ariza were all tremendous in Game 2, after pretty much stinking like rotten eggs in Game 1. Which show do they take on the road?
The champions have posted one clunker performance in each round thus far this postseason. None of those clunkers came in Oakland. The Warriors have won an NBA record-tying 15 consecutive home playoff games, so as things stand they remain the definite series favorite. If the Rockets can start Game 3 well they can inject some doubt into the otherwise raucous Oracle Arena crowd, and more important, perhaps into the Warriors themselves.
Stephen Curry making only 2 of 13 3-point shots in Games 1 and 2 was certainly surprising, but does not mean he is hobbled by the knee that cost him a chunk of the regular season and Golden State’s first six playoff games. Barring new information, if Curry keeps misfiring it’s because the greatest outside shooter ever picked a lousy (for the Warriors) time to slump, not because of the knee. In the four games he played in the Warriors’ second round series vs. New Orleans Curry made 15 of 34 threes (44%). Golden State then had five days off before the start of the WCF.
Making his pitch
During his two month fling pitching for the Astros in 1998, Randy Johnson impacted attendance like no other Astro ever. His starts here were like rock concerts. The Big Unit only made five regular season starts at the Astrodome, the lowest attendance among the five was 40,217. Twice, more than 52,000 packed in. Johnson was beyond spectacular, firing shutouts in the first four of those starts. In the fifth he finally gave up two runs (but still won). In four of the five starts Johnson threw at least 129 pitches. Overall in 11 regular season starts with the Astros, Johnson went 10-1 with an earned run average of 1.28 -- and in the heart of the Steroid Era.
In 2005 Roger Clemens had his ERA at a “you have to be kidding me” 1.32 24 starts into the season. He faded some late in the season pushing his ERA “all the way up” to 1.87. Clemens got laughably feeble run support that season so he only won 13 games, which probably cost him another Cy Young Award. Dumb voters. On the other hand, in 2004 Clemens won his seventh Cy when Johnson was more deserving. That would have been The Big Unit’s sixth Cy, tying him with Clemens for the most all-time. On a third hand, Clemens was absolutely jobbed out of a Cy way back in 1990 when Bob Welch was awarded for winning 27 games with Oakland. Welch of course pitched very well that season, but not even close to what the Rocket did. Anyway…
Justin Verlander is now in the back half of his third regular season month as an Astro. In five starts last year his ERA was 1.06. After shutting out the Angels Wednesday night, Verlander’s ERA through 10 starts this season is 1.05. Unless up against a Rockets NBA Finals game, Verlander starts at Minute Maid Park should all be sellouts going forward. His next should be Wednesday against the Giants (alas, a matinee). Verlander’s Hall of Fame level greatness is at its apex and should be appreciated and celebrated as such. That’s before even including the whole he helped the Astros win the World Series!!! thing.
Times change. Verlander’s shutout against the Angels was his eighth career shutout. Clemens threw eight shutouts in 1988. Verlander keeping an ERA at or close to 1.05 is basically impossible. Bob Gibson’s sick 1.12 in 1968 is the lowest in the last hundred years. While stupefying, Gibby’s 1.12 came in a year so pitching-dominated that the next season Major League Baseball lowered the pitching mound five inches and shrunk the strike zone. Gibson threw 28 complete games in 1968. Verlander’s Wednesday was the 24th complete game of his career.
Buzzer Beaters
1. Tom Herman will be in his 6th season at UT when the Horns play Alabama in 2022. Right? 2. A Sherpa this week scaled Mt. Everest for a record 22nd time. Who likes a show-off? 3. Next greatest mountains: Bronze-Rainier Silver-Olympus Gold-Space
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.