Collin McHugh/Facebook
I know we're just four starts in and you can't make any assumptions in a baseball season until September but maybe just maybe the Astros have found their third starter and he's been right under our nose the whole time.
This is not something the organization had to realize. They've been on the Collin McHugh train since the offseason began. We fans have been slower on the uptake.
The first rumblings came early in the offseason when the team allegedly went after Nathan Eovaldi then James Paxton. They obviously had a number for each in mind that they wouldn't exceed and they lost out to the Red Sox and Yankees on both.
I for one wanted to see them go after Corey Kluber. I dreamed of a rotation of Verlander, Kluber, Cole and then fill in the gaps. Those three at the top of any rotation is the stuff parades are made of. It wasn't realistic to think the Indians wold trade him to the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year but I could dream anyway.
Can't tell you how many times I've been asked if the Astros would re-sign Dallas Keuchel. My answer every time has been a fervent no. It seems almost inconceivable that a guy who won the Cy Young four years ago and was a number two starter on a World Series team just two years ago is still out of work but he's just not the same dominant guy he was. Not even close. Soft tossing lefties are not in high demand especially ones who are 31 and looking for big money long term deals. His last couple of years have not warranted it. He started 2017 with a 9-0 record. He had shoulder issues and finished the second half with a 5-5 record but more than that, every important stat was worse post all-star break. Maybe that was due to the injury but last year when he was thought to healthy he wasn't much better. He gave up more hits and faced more batters than anyone in the league. His WAR was his second worst since 2013. His K/W was down. His WHIP was up and so on and so on. He's not a top of the rotation guy anymore but wants to be paid like it. The marketplace is telling him it's not going to happen, not unless a good team gets desperate anyway.In spring training Forest Whitley was all the rave. He looked great and he was ready to come in and assume that role of third starter. One problem: tough to do that from Round Rock and oh by the way he hasn't been all that in his two starts. His second outing on Monday lasted 1 1/3 and he has a 9.95 ERA. No big deal but not something any player wants to look up at on the scoreboard no matter how early in the season. The common thought is that the club will bring him up in June to get that extra year of service. If so it'll be plenty of time for Whitley to get acclimated to the bigs and pitch in some pressure games before the postseason. He's got top of the rotation stuff and could eventually be the ace here but when he does get here he's going to have prove that he's good enough to be the third starter on this staff because Collin McHugh won't relinquish that without a fight.
For whatever reason I just don't believe we've bought into McHugh as a big time starter. Maybe it's because of how he looks. Don't get me wrong. There's nothing wrong with his looks but it's not what an overpowering athlete is in 2019. Verlander and Cole look the part, McHugh not so much. But looks can be deceiving. Since he's joined the Astros he's had a winning record every year. He's 57-31. He's had a 19 win season. Some 3rd starters never do that. After going 48-28 over 4 seasons as a starter he was asked to come out of the bullpen and responded with what could have and maybe should have been an all-star season.
One big question coming into this season was whether or not McHugh could pitch deep into games after a year in the pen. He went 3 innings twice all of last season. If he couldn't it would certainly tax a bullpen that looks weaker without him and Brad Peacock. So far though he's gone six innings in 3 of his 4 starts. That could get better but A.J. may have some of the same doubt about him that we do. If your name is Verlander or Cole, A.J. will leave you in until you think you're done. If your name isn't Verlander or Cole he takes you out when he thinks you're done.
It's a long season and there are a bunch of starts left but McHugh has allayed some of the fears many of us had this offseason. He certainly looks the part of a 3rd starter on a championship team so far.
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The Houston Astros walked out of Phoenix with a three-game sweep of the Diamondbacks, but the biggest win of the series might not have been in the standings, it could’ve been the emergence of their latest young spark plug.
Once again, the pitching carried the load. Brandon Walter continued his breakout season with another strong showing, and right now, he looks like Houston’s third starter if the playoffs began today. Behind him, Ryan Gusto and Colton Gordon have quietly helped stabilize a rotation ravaged by injuries. All three own ERAs under 4.5, a luxury the Astros couldn’t have anticipated heading into the year. Another thing they couldn't have anticipated was Lance McCullers' ERA this season being almost seven.
Walter’s rise comes at the same time the McCullers situation grows murkier. After starting the season late, he’s on the injured list again, this time with a blister on his pitching hand. Though the issue isn’t related to his arm, the “vibes” simply haven't been there. He’s struggled in four of his last five starts, and one wonders whether a "phantom" IL stint might be in his future, especially with Cristian Javier and Spencer Arrighetti progressing in rehab assignments. The roster squeeze is coming, and McCullers might not make the cut.
Crushing dingers!
Offensively, the conversation begins and ends with Brice Matthews. The first-round pick has quickly shifted from injury fill-in to potential staple, nearly winning the series by himself with three home runs across the first two games. His athleticism has popped in the field, and while contact concerns remain, the power and energy are real. Matthews is the only prospect of his pedigree ready to contribute, so the club made a wise decision to take a shot on upside, and Matthews delivered. That's why we were so emphatic about the Astros elevating Matthews. Get him in the lineup as a DH if you have to, whatever it takes, this offense needs pop. Then lo and behold, not only does he give the offense a lift, his defense also helped seal a win against Arizona.
Veteran slugger Christian Walker might be heating up too, posting a .348 average with three home runs and an .895 OPS in July. That’s a promising development, especially in a month when the Astros have flipped their typical formula. The pitching has been average — 18th in ERA, 18th in WHIP, 21st in opponent batting average — but the offense has been elite: top-five in slugging, OPS, and runs scored.
Injury bug
Still, questions persist. Chief among them is the health of Yordan Alvarez. His recent comments about his hand injury — specifically, his uncertainty and acknowledgement that rest hasn’t helped — were troubling. If surgery isn’t an option and time off isn’t working, what is the long-term solution? At this point, fans are right to worry about whether Alvarez will ever fully return to the dominant form he once showed.
Trade deadline
With the trade deadline one week away, general manager Dana Brown has to weigh all of this. The pitching could soon be bolstered by returns from the IL. But the offense, especially with no clear return dates for Alvarez, Jeremy Peña, Jake Meyers, and Isaac Paredes, might need immediate help. Despite the sweep, Houston scored just three and four runs in the final two games of the Diamondbacks series. If they’re serious about contending for a championship, another bat may be required. They'll see much better pitching in the postseason.
If the Astros do decide to add an arm, a power right-handed reliever could make sense. With Bryan Abreu the only truly dominant righty in the bullpen, a little late-inning muscle wouldn’t hurt.
Bottom line: the Astros are winning, and they're doing it in multiple ways. But with health concerns piling up and playoff positioning tightening, there’s still plenty of work ahead. Fortunately for Houston, they may have just found another foundational piece in the most unexpected place, a rookie who’s already changing the conversation.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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