CORREA WATCH
Compromise is critical in this best-case scenario for Carlos Correa, Astros
Nov 30, 2021, 3:06 pm
Give a little to get a little. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images.
The case for fanaticism and vigilance from Astros fans
With the Texas Rangers’ signing elite shortstops Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, the Tigers landing Javy Baez and the Yankees showing interest in Isiah Kiner-Falefa, the threat level of the Astros saying goodbye to Carlos Correa has been lowered from “100 percent lost cause” to “maybe just maybe.”
A baseball executive who doesn’t want to be identified told me, “Seems like everybody else is realizing that Correa is a career .270 hitter.” And even in 2021, Correa’s free agent season when he put it all together, he hit only .279. Good, not great.
Still, right now, Correa is one of the best defensive shortstops ever and his throwing arms should be registered with the National Rifle Association.
Unfortunately there is no stat for “fiery team leader who tells critics of his team to go f-themselves.” Both qualities that endear him to Astros fans.
Correa reportedly is asking for a record-breaking long-term deal and so far, so far as we know anyway, there’s been no takers.
Here’s how it can turn out for the best for everybody. For Correa. For the Astros.
The goal of any negotiation is for both sides to walk away with their heads held high thinking they won. The Astros would love to keep Correa, but without breaking their policy of no long-term deals beyond five years. It's a smart, responsible policy. How many 10-year deals don't have fans thinking in years eight, nine and 10, how can we unload this guy?
Correa reportedly wants to become the highest-paid infielder ever with a long-term deal in the range of $350 million over the next decade.
With that much distance between the two sides, how can the Astros even dream of keeping Correa? Here’s how. Both sides must be willing to negotiate and expect to give a little.
Last year, the New York Mets signed shortstop Francisco Lindor for $341 million over 10 years, including $43.3 million for the 2021 season, the highest one-year salary in MLB history at the time. But remember, it’s pretty likely that the Mets already regret their Lindor deal, as the shortstop had a miserable 2021 season and even managed to alienate Mets fans by flashing thumbs down signs at them.
What if the Astros offered Correa a seven-year deal worth $241.5 million? That averages $34.5 million per year, more than Lindor makes annually. And the Astros write the contract so it includes $45 million for 2022. That’s more than Lindor made this year. Bam! Correa is the highest-paid infielder ever.
Correa gets some of what he wants.
The Astros go beyond their policy of not offering anything longer than a five-year contract, and they’ll have to rob their company piggy bank for more than they’d like to spend. But they keep their star shortstop and fuel their dynasty for years to come.
The Astros get some of what they want.
Done deal.
That’s a good negotiation, a great opportunity for Correa and an acceptable contract for the Astros. Correa stays in Houston where he’s a beloved fan favorite, and plays with his buddies in a friendly ballpark where he doesn’t hear cries of “cheater.” And he’ll be 34 when he’s a free agent again, up for another massive contract, maybe as a slugging third baseman this time. If he signs for more years with a less potent team, he’ll be tagged a money grubber and forfeit his status as a baseball warrior, an image that Correa embraces.
If owner Jim Crane can convince Correa to sign for crazy money for fewer years, it will show Houston fans that the Astros are willing to do whatever it takes to win. That’s a good look for the Astros and a booster shot for ticket sales and Dollar Dogs on Tuesday nights.
Now all the Astros and Correa have to do, in the immortal words of chief negotiator Larry the Cable, is just git’er done.
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Through 20 games, the Houston Astros have managed just six wins and are in last place in the AL West.
Their pitching staff trails only Colorado with a 5.24 ERA and big-money new closer Josh Hader has given up the same number of earned runs in 10 games as he did in 61 last year.
Despite this, these veteran Astros, who have reached the AL Championship Series seven consecutive times, have no doubt they’ll turn things around.
“If there’s a team that can do it, it’s this team,” shortstop Jeremy Peña said.
First-year manager Joe Espada, who was hired in January to replace the retired Dusty Baker, discussed his team’s early struggles.
“It’s not ideal,” he said. “It’s not what we expected, to come out of the shoot playing this type of baseball. But you know what, this is where we’re at and we’ve got to pick it up and play better. That’s just the bottom line.”
Many of Houston’s problems have stemmed from a poor performance by a rotation that has been decimated by injuries. Ace Justin Verlander and fellow starter José Urquidy haven’t pitched this season because of injuries and lefty Framber Valdez made just two starts before landing on the injured list with a sore elbow.
Ronel Blanco, who threw a no-hitter in his season debut April 1, has pitched well and is 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in three starts this season. Cristian Javier is also off to a good start, going 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA in four starts, but the team has won just two games not started by those two pitchers.
However, Espada wouldn’t blame the rotation for Houston’s current position.
“It’s been a little bit of a roller coaster how we've played overall,” he said. “One day we get good starting pitching, some days we don’t. The middle relief has been better and sometimes it hasn’t been. So, we’ve just got to put it all together and then play more as a team. And once we start doing that, we’ll be in good shape.”
The good news for the Astros is that Verlander will make his season debut Friday night when they open a series at Washington and Valdez should return soon after him.
“Framber and Justin have been a great part of our success in the last few years,” second baseman Jose Altuve said. “So, it’s always good to have those two guys back helping the team. We trust them and I think it’s going to be good.”
Hader signed a five-year, $95 million contract this offseason to give the Astros a shutdown 7-8-9 combination at the back end of their bullpen with Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly. But the five-time All-Star is off to a bumpy start.
He allowed four runs in the ninth inning of a 6-1 loss to the Braves on Monday night and has yielded eight earned runs this season after giving up the same number in 56 1/3 innings for San Diego last year.
He was much better Wednesday when he struck out the side in the ninth before the Astros fell to Atlanta in 10 innings for their third straight loss.
Houston’s offense, led by Altuve, Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, ranks third in the majors with a .268 batting average and is tied for third with 24 homers this season. But the Astros have struggled with runners in scoring position and often failed to get a big hit in close games.
While many of Houston’s hitters have thrived this season, one notable exception is first baseman José Abreu. The 37-year-old, who is in the second year of a three-year, $58.5 million contract, is hitting 0.78 with just one extra-base hit in 16 games, raising questions about why he remains in the lineup every day.
To make matters worse, his error on a routine ground ball in the eighth inning Wednesday helped the Braves tie the game before they won in extra innings.
Espada brushed off criticism of Abreu and said he knows the 2020 AL MVP can break out of his early slump.
“Because (of) history,” Espada said. “The back of his baseball card. He can do it.”
Though things haven’t gone well for the Astros so far, everyone insists there’s no panic in this team which won its second World Series in 2022.
Altuve added that he doesn’t have to say anything to his teammates during this tough time.
“I think they’ve played enough baseball to know how to control themselves and how to come back to the plan we have, which is winning games,” he said.
The clubhouse was quiet and somber Wednesday after the Astros suffered their third series sweep of the season and second at home. While not panicking about the slow start, this team, which has won at least 90 games in each of the last three seasons, is certainly not happy with its record.
“We need to do everything better,” third baseman Alex Bregman said. “I feel like we’re in a lot of games, but we just haven’t found a way to win them. And good teams find a way to win games. So we need to find a way to win games.”