DOLLARS AND SENSE

How Prescott and Watson contracts expose glaring flaws in NFL compensation

Texans Deshaun Watson Cowboys Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott signed a huge extension. Composite image by Jack Brame.

Well, it didn't take long for the Texans' $39 million-a-year quarterback Deshaun Watson to be underpaid.

Dak Prescott signed a contract Monday that will pay him $160 million over four years, with $126 million of it guaranteed, plus a $66 million signing bonus up front. That's an all-time NFL record for an autograph. Next season, all-in, Prescott will make $75 million. That's for one season.

This isn't to say that our guy (for now) Watson is working for minimum wage. He's the third highest-earning quarterback in the league. Last year, Watson signed a four-year, $156 million deal that will pay him $39 million per year, with $111 million guaranteed, and a $27 million signing bonus. Prescott beats him in line item.

Only the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback has a richer contract, $450 million over 10 years. With bonuses and incentives, Patrick Mahomes' deal could be worth more than a half a billion bucks.

Prescott and Watson's situations may be the better deal in the long run. Prescott will be 31 and Watson only 29 when they're ready for a new contract. With TV contracts expiring, ticket prices soaring and the stock market booming, the sky may be the limit for Prescott and Watson.

Consider this, Jerry Jones paid $154 million to buy the Dallas Cowboys, the whole team, in 1989. He will pay Prescott, one player, more than that the next four years.

Let's compare apples to apples, Prescott to Watson. Prescott makes more per year, has more money guaranteed and a bigger signing bonus. Plus Prescott has better receivers, better running backs, better offensive linemen and plays for a better team with a better owner.

To paraphrase Jerry Seinfeld flying in first class: better everything!

There's only one problem with the comparison: Prescott ain't better than Watson.

Prescott's best year was in 2019, when he threw for 30 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. The Cowboys went 8-8 that year.

Last year, Watson threw 33 touchdowns and with only seven completions to the other team. You don't need to be reminded that the Texans finished with a sucky 4-12 record.

Watson is faster, has a cannon arm and is a lifelong winner, at least until the Texans got hold of him. He's two years younger than Prescott. He's a more accurate passer, and a better deep ball heaver. He has a higher career completion percentage and higher passing rating. Nobody beats Professor Watson's post-game interviews.

Here's how you can determine who's the better quarterback. If things were normal (they're not), and Jerry Jones called Punkin' Cal McNair and offered to trade Prescott for Watson, the Texans would say no thanks. The Cowboys would take the deal and probably hornswoggle the Texans into throwing in draft picks and a sno-cone.

Of course this is a moot scenario because Watson wants out of Houston. The Texans are playing hardball, insisting they have no intention of trading Watson, which is the cherry on top of the Texans' stupid streak regarding their star quarterback. The Texans will embarrass themselves a few more times, but there will be somebody else playing quarterback next season.

Here are other quarterbacks making more than $30 million per year: Russell Wilson ($35 million), Jared Goff ($33.5 million), Aaron Rodgers ($33.5 million), Kirk Cousins ($33 million), Carson Wentz ($32 million) and Matt Ryan ($30 million). In cases like Wentz and Goff, it's like they say in those TV commercials for stock brokerages: past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Meanwhile, there's a quarterback in Tampa Bay who's playing for relative peanuts. Some guy named Tom something makes only $25 million. Haven't heard much about him lately, though.

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Houston must improve in close games down the stretch and into October. Composite Getty Image.

While holding one’s breath that for a change the Astros aren’t publicly grossly underestimating an injury’s severity with Jose Altuve having missed the last game and a half with “right side discomfort…”

The Astros averting a sweep vs. Oakland Thursday was in no way a must-win, but getting the win allowed a mini sigh of relief. The Astros are NOT in the process of choking. Could they collapse? Sure that’s possible. Also possible is that they’ve just been in one more ebb phase in a season of ebb and flow. They certainly have left the door ajar for the Seattle Mariners to swipe the American League West, but with the M's simply not looking good enough to walk through that door the Astros remain in commanding position. The Astros made a spectacular charge from 10 games behind to grab the division lead. But there was a lot of runway left when the Astros awoke June 19th 10 games in arrears. September 3 the Astros arose with a comfy six game lead over the M’s. With Seattle blowing a 4-1 eighth inning lead in a 5-4 loss to the Texas Rangers Thursday night, heading into Friday night the Astros' advantage is back up to four and a half games despite the Astros having lost six of their last nine games and having gone just 10-12 over their last 22 games. Not a good stretch but nothing freefalling about it.

While the Mariners have the remainder of their four-game series vs. the dead in the water Rangers this weekend, the Astros play three at the lousy Los Angeles Angels. The Astros should take advantage of the Halos, with whom they also have a four-game series at Minute Maid Park next weekend. Since the All-Star break, only the White Sox have a worse record than the Angels 19-31 mark (the White Sox are 6-43 post-break!). Two of the three starting pitchers the Angels will throw this weekend will be making their third big league starts. To begin next week the Astros are in San Diego for a three-game-set against a Padres club which is flat better than the Astros right now. That does not mean the Astros can’t take that series. The Mariners meanwhile will be still at home, for three vs. the Yankees.

There are some brutal Astros’ statistics that largely explain why this is merely a pretty good team and not more. As I have noted before, it is a fallacy that the best teams are usually superior in close games. But the Astros have been pathetic in close games. There used to be a joke made about Sammy Sosa that he could blow you out, but he couldn’t beat you. Meaning being that when the score was 6-1, 8-3 or the like Sammy would pad his stats with home runs and runs batted in galore. But in a tight game, don’t count on Sammy to come through very often. In one-run games the Astros are 15-26, in two-run games they are 10-14. In games that were tied after seven innings they are 3-12. In extra innings they are 5-10. The good news is, all those realities mean nothing when the postseason starts. So long as you’re in the postseason. In games decided by three or more runs the Astros have pummeled the opposition to the tune of 53 wins and 28 losses.

General Manager Dana Brown isn’t an Executive of the Year candidate, but overall he’s been fine this season. Without the Yusei Kikuchi trade deadline acquisition the Astros would likely barely lead the AL West. Brown’s biggest offseason get, Victor Caratini, has done very solid work in his part-time role. Though he has tapered off notably the last month and change, relief pitcher Tayler Scott was a fabulous signing. Scrap heap pickups Ben Gamel, Jason Heyward, and Kaleb Ort have all made contributions. However…

Dana. Dana! You made yourself look very silly with comments this week somewhat scoffing at people being concerned with or dismissive of Justin Verlander’s ability to be a meaningful playoff contributor. Brown re-sang a ridiculous past tune, the “check the back of his baseball card” baloney. Dana, did you mean like the back of Jose Abreu’s baseball card? Perhaps Brown has never seen those brokerage ads in which at the end in fine print and/or in rapidly spoken words “past performance is no guarantee of future results” always must be included. Past (overall career) performance as indicative of future results for a 41-year-old pitcher who has frequently looked terrible and has twice missed chunks of this season to two different injuries is absurd. That Verlander could find it in time is plausible. That of course he’ll find it? Absolutely not. His next two starts are slotted to be against the feeble Angels, so even if the results are better, it won’t mean “JV IS BACK!”

Presuming they hold on to win the division, the Astros’ recent sub-middling play means they have only very faint hope of avoiding having to play the best-of-three Wild Card Series. Barring a dramatic turn over the regular season’s final fortnight, Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are the obvious choices to start games one and two. If there is a game three, it is one game do or die. Only a fool would think Verlander the right man for that assignment. No one should expect Brown to say “Yeah, JV is likely finished as a frontline starter.” But going to the “back of the baseball card” line was laughable. Father Time gets us all eventually. Verlander has an uphill climb extricating himself from Father Time’s grasp.

*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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