ON THE OUTS?
Del Olaleye: 3 players you may not see on the Texans after 2018
Del Olaleye
May 2, 2018, 6:39 am
Jonathan Joseph might be in his last go round with the Texans. Bob Levey/Getty Images
The NFL draft is a weird dichotomy. It means new hope for over 250 players and maybe the beginning of the end for countless others. Teams are afforded seven picks not including compensatory picks and others acquired through trades and those new players have to go somewhere. That means plenty of guys who had roster spots in 2017 may not have them in 2018. The NFL isn’t a game, but a business and with this influx of cheap labor somebody has to go. This cycle repeats itself every year so let’s talk about some Texans who may not call Houston home after the 2018 season.
Kareem Jackson CB
Jackson was a first round pick in 2010. That designation in itself provides plenty of job security. Under Rick Smith it meant you were going to be given every opportunity to prove your worth. The first round pick out of Alabama struggled mightily early in his career but to his credit improved and became a solid member of a top-flight defense. At age 30, with rumblings of a switch to safety, Jackson’s time with Texans could be coming to end. Specifically because any move to safety could be short-circuited by the Texans drafting Justin Reid, the safety from Stanford. Signing Tyrann Mathieu doesn’t make a position switch more likely for Jackson. Mathieu is only on a one-year deal but a big year in Romeo Crennel’s defense would make him an attractive player for the Texans to sign long-term.
Jackson is in the final year of his deal and his 2018 salary will be $6.5 million. Corners who are considered solid at best and who have lost a step don’t usually get paid what they think they’re worth. An average to subpar year from Jackson in Houston could see him looking to sign a final big deal someplace else.
Johnathan Joseph CB
Joseph at points appears to be teflon but his recent contract extension really just amounts to a one-year deal with a club option for an extra year. If Joseph were to be cut after the 2018 season it would cost the Texans nothing. The 2011 free agent acquisition from the Bengals helped turn a defense that everyone saw as a glaring weakness into the backbone of a team that won four division titles in six seasons. At 34-years-old Joseph’s play has declined as you’d expect and the Texans should be looking for a long-term replacement. Though the organization signed Aaron Colvin in the offseason, the pressing need for a young No. 1 corner still remains. While the team did pick up the 5th-year option on 2015 first round CB Kevin Johnson, his inconsistent play and injuries mean the Texans are still hoping he becomes a long-term answer. A first round CB should be high on the list of priorities for the Texans. Paying Joseph in 2019 at 35-years-old shouldn’t be.
Lamar Miller RB
It wouldn’t surprise me if what Miller did in a Week 6 matchup in 2015 against the Texans as member of the Miami Dolphins is the reason the Texans signed him. That day he accounted for 241 total yards and two touchdowns. In a game that the Dolphins led 41-0 at the half, Miller ran for an 85-yard touchdown and caught a screen pass for a 54-yard touchdown in the second quarter. Coupled with Arian Foster tearing his achilles tendon in the same game it almost seemed like Miller’s dominance that day was enough for him to be viewed as Foster’s replacement. Unfortunately the explosive all-purpose threat the Texans saw that day has not manifested itself in Houston.
The University of Miami product only carried the ball 20 times or more in a game twice in his entire career with the Dolphins. He carried the ball 20 times or more three times in his first three games with the Texans. Miscast as a workhorse back in his first season in Houston, the big-play capabilities Miller showed on the college level and with the Dolphins have not been evident in Houston. Miller’s cap hit is $7.25 million in 2019 while cutting him would save the Texans $6 million. Miller will be 28-years-old when the 2019 season begins and barring a year that far exceeds his first two years in Houston he could be another core member of the Texans to be looking for work elsewhere.
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All-Star balloting opened up this week for what used to be known as the Midsummer Classic in Major League Baseball. I guess some still refer to it as such but the All-Star Game has been largely a bore for many years, though the honor of being selected on merit remains a big one. As always, fans can vote at all positions except pitcher. The fan balloting has resulted in mostly good selections for years now, though pretty much all teams still do silly marketing stuff trying to drum up support for their players. The Astros’ part in that silliness is their campaign to make it the “All-’Stros” game on the American League squad in Atlanta next month. It’s one thing to be supportive of your team, it’s another to be flat out ridiculous if voting right now for Yainer Diaz, Christian Walker, Yordan Alvarez, Mauricio Dubon, or Cam Smith. The Astros tried to game the system in submitting Jose Altuve as a second baseman where the competition is weaker than it is in the outfield, but given Altuve has played only about 25 percent of the games at second base this season he should not be an All-Star second baseman selectee for what would be the tenth time in his career.
Isaac Paredes’s recent freefall notwithstanding, he has a legitimate case as a backup third baseman, especially with Alex Bregman likely missing more than a month of games due to his quad injury. Jake Meyers is having a fine season but is obviously not an All-Star-worthy outfielder unless he is sensational for the rest of June. That leaves Jeremy Peña, who is simply the best shortstop in the big leagues so far this season. To be clear, no team in baseball (including the Astros) would rather have Peña going forward than the Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr., but we’re talking about the here and now. There are another 100 games to be played, but Peña not only is about a lock to deserve his first All-Star nod, but he is in contention to put in the books the greatest season ever by an Astro shortstop.
Over his first three seasons, Peña was a consistently mediocre offensive player. His highest batting average was .266, best on-base percentage .324, top slugging percentage .426. He is blowing away all those numbers thus far in 2025. While unlikely to come close to reaching his preseason goal of 50 stolen bases, Peña is swiping bags at the best success rate of his career. Add in Peña’s stellar defense and that he has played in every Astros’ game so far this season, and Peña has been irrefutably one of the 10 best and most valuable players in the American League. You could certainly argue as high as top three.
If Peña's productivity holds up for the rest of the season there are only three other seasons posted by Astro shortstops that are in the same league as what would be Peña’s 2025. Carlos Correa has two of them. Lack of durability may be the biggest reason Correa is not tracking to be a Hall of Famer. In only two seasons as an Astro did Correa play in more than 136 games. He was fabulous in each of them. 2021 was his peak campaign, playing in 148 games while compiling an .850 OPS, winning a Gold Glove, and finishing fifth in AL MVP voting. Correa’s Baseball-Reference wins above replacement number for 2021 was 7.3. Peña is at 3.6 with nearly 20 games still left before the midway point of the schedule.
For the other great Astro shortstop season you have to go back to 1983. Dickie Thon turned 25 years old in June of ‘83. He put up a .798 OPS, which gains in stature given Thon played his home games in the Astrodome when the Dome was at its most pitching-friendly. Thon won the Silver Slugger Award as the best offensive shortstop in the National League, and played superior defense. His Baseball-Reference WAR number was 7.4. He finished seventh for NL MVP playing for an 85-77 Astros’ squad that finished third in the NL West. Dickie Thon looked like an emerging superstar. Then, in the fifth game of the 1984 season, a fastball from Mets’ pitcher Mike Torrez hit Thon in the left eye, fracturing his orbital bone. Thon missed the rest of the ‘84 season. While Thon played in nine more big league seasons, his vision never fully recovered and he was never the same player. It’s one of the biggest “What if...” questions in Astros’ history.
Arms race
Players and the Commissioner’s Office pick the All-Star pitching staffs. Unless he suddenly starts getting lit up regularly, Hunter Brown can pack a bag for Georgia. Framber Valdez wouldn’t make it now but has surged into contention. Josh Hader’s first half is going vastly better than last year’s, so he is in line for a reliever spot.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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