NBA PLAYOFFS

Del Olaleye: Are the Rockets just another speed bump on the Warriors' path to history?

Del Olaleye: Are the Rockets just another speed bump on the Warriors' path to history?
The Warriors are historically good. Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Can 12 minutes wipe away a season’s worth of accomplishments? Maybe. The Rockets watched a 65-win season and a No. 1 seed go by the wayside after the Warriors outscored them 31-24 in the third quarter of Game 1. A game that was tied at the half turned into a run-away-and-hide game for the defending champs. An obsession with the Warriors pushed Daryl Morey to try to build a team that could compete with and beat the Warriors. Whether the Rockets can do that is still to be determined but initial polling isn’t favorable.

The issue for the Rockets is that there may be nothing that can be done to catch the Warriors. At least not as they’re presently constituted. I saw one Rockets fan tweet “We need to sign Lebron.” That actually may be the only answer. That just speaks to the greatness of the Warriors. Signing the best player in a generation may help a 65-win team beat Golden State. That is an offseason conversation and one that should be had if you believe the gap between the Warriors can’t be closed by internal improvement. I’m in the “this series was over before it started” faction and Game 1 had nothing to do with it.

The opener of the Western Conference finals was a continuation of what we’ve seen from the Rockets over the last thirty games or so. They entered the playoffs playing average basketball and that subpar play didn’t end even as they dispatched of the Wolves and the Jazz. While their defense has been outstanding against two outmatched opponents the offense has lagged behind. The devastating spurts of offensive brilliance for the Rockets have been few and far between this postseason as their defense has carried them. They entered the series playing at a level that wouldn’t get the job  done and facing the Warriors in Game 1 exposed things the Jazz and Wolves were incapable of doing.

That smothering Rockets defense that I talked about earlier didn’t make an appearance in the opener. Defensive lapses that brought back the memories of previous Rockets teams happened far too often. Warriors wide open 3s off of made Houston buckets cost the Rockets dearly. When they did happen to get back on defense, simple back cuts led to easy Golden State layups. In a series with little margin for error, the Rockets defense didn’t play to a level that respected the importance of each possession.

A Game 2 win for Houston changes the energy but not the problems that will exist over the course of the series for the Rockets. Can the Rockets maintain a level of excellence over the next four out of six games that will be needed to earn a trip to the Finals? The talent disparity is an obvious hinderance to that. That disparity doesn’t just manifest itself in one on one matchups but also in how much pressure is felt to play a perfect ball game.

There isn’t any shame in a possible Warriors destruction of the Rockets. Only that guy I mentioned earlier with the last name of James has beaten them in a series since Steve Kerr was hired. The Warriors responded to that defeat by adding the second best player in the world immediately. They haven’t been challenged since.

Are the Rockets just the latest in a line of unmemorable teams that the Warriors run over in their dynasty? Game 2 might give us our answer.

 

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Get your popcorn ready! Composite image by Brandon Strange.

Filed the column early this week with Astros’ baseball that counts arriving Thursday! Ideally that arrival occurs with Minute Maid Park’s roof open under sunny skies with temperature in the mid-70s and only moderate humidity (that’s the forecast).

As they ready for their season-opening four game series, the Astros and Yankees enter 2024 with streaks on the line. The Astros take aim at an eighth consecutive American League Championship Series appearance while obviously aiming ultimately higher than that. The Yankees are a good bet to fail to make the World Series for the 15th consecutive season, which would be a new Yankees’ record! At its origin in 1903 the franchise was known as the New York Highlanders. The name became the Yankees in 1913, with the first franchise World Series appearance coming in 1921. So that was 18 years of play without winning a pennant. Maybe that gives the Yanks something to shoot for in 2027.

On the more immediate horizon, the Astros and Yankees both start the season with question marks throughout their starting rotations. It’s just that the Astros do so coming off their seventh straight ALCS appearance while the Yankees are coming off having missed the postseason entirely for the first time in seven years. Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole can spend time Thursday chit-chatting about their days as Astro teammates because they won’t be pitching against one another. Cole’s absence hurts the Yankees more than Verlander’s should the Astros. Cole was the unanimously voted AL Cy Young Award winner last season, and at eight years younger than Verlander the workload he was expected to carry is greater. Cole is gone for at least the first two months of the season, the Astros would be pleased if Verlander misses less than one month.

Whoever does the pitching, the guy on the mound for the Astros has the benefit of a clearly better lineup supporting him. The Yankees could have the best two-man combo in the game with Aaron Judge batting second ahead of offseason acquisition Juan Soto. Two men do not a Murderers’ Row make. Gleyber Torres is the only other guy in the Yankees’ projected regular batting order who was better than mediocre last season, several guys were lousy. The Astros have six guys in their lineup (Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Chas McCormick, and Yainer Diaz) who were better in the batter’s box than was Torres last season. The Yanks have hopes for a healthy and huge bounce back season from the brittle and 34-years-old Giancarlo Stanton. Good luck with that.

Man with a plan

We have to see how things play out over the season of course, but it is exciting to see new manager Joe Espada’s progressive outlook on a number of things. Acknowledging that Astros’ baserunning has too often been deficient, Espada made improving it a spring training priority. The same with Astros’ pitchers doing a better job of holding opposing base runners at first with base stealing having occurred with the highest success rate in MLB history last season. Tweaking the lineup to bat Alvarez second behind Altuve is a strong choice. Having your two best offensive forces come to the plate most frequently is inherently smart.

Opting to bat Tucker third ahead of Bregman rather than the other way around also seems wise business. Let’s offer one specific circumstance. An opposing pitcher manages to retire both Altuve and Alvarez. Tucker walking or singling is much more capable of stealing second base and then scoring on a Bregman single than the inverse. Or scoring from first on a ball hit to the corner or a shallow gap. I suggest in a similar vein that is why the much older and much slower Jose Abreu should bat lower in the lineup than Chas McCormick and Yainer Diaz. Though Espada giving Abreu veteran deference to get off to a better season than Abreu’s largely lousy 2023 is ok. To a point.

Eye on the prize

The ceiling for the 2024 Astros is clear. Winning a third World Series in eight years is viably in play. The floor is high. Barring an utter collapse of the starting rotation and/or a calamitous toll of injuries within the offensive core there is no way this is only a .500-ish ballclub. That does not mean the Astros are a surefire postseason team. The Rangers may again have a better offense. The Mariners definitely begin the season with a better starting rotation. In the end, other than when it impacts team decision-making, prognostication doesn’t matter. But these two words definitely matter: PLAY BALL!

To welcome the new season we’ll do a live YouTube Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast about 30 minutes after the final out is recorded in Thursday’s opener.

Our second season of Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast is underway. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics weekly. On our regular schedule the first post goes up Monday afternoon. You can get the video version (first part released Monday, second part Tuesday, sometimes a third part Wednesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available at initial release Monday via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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